WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

18Z is probably going to be peak intensity I imagine. I'm rather sympathetic to 160-165 kt personally, which is way up there.

[Hayabusa]

Next ADT would probably go down.

[Highteeld]

The CDO has become extremely large

[aspen]

Next ADT would probably go down.

I think so too. The CDO has slightly warmed over the last hour (although the eye has as well).

[Hayabusa]

Remains the same, but that's better than going down

[Cunxi Huang]

JMA 18Z DT8.0, CI7.5/FT7.5.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6.5
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5

[aspen]

Remains the same, but that's better than going down

It’s incredible “halong” Halong has held T#7.8 — 3 and a half hours as of this latest ADT update.

[Hayabusa]

Remains the same, but that's better than going down

It’s incredible “halong” Halong has held T#7.8 — 3 and a half hours as of this latest ADT update.

Yutu did that too except CI was stuck at 7.5

[Highteeld]

JMA 18Z DT8.0, CI7.5/FT7.5.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6.5
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5

wonder if they'll go 120 knots for 18z

[TorSkk]

JMA 18Z DT8.0, CI7.5/FT7.5.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6.5
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5

How is it possible? MET has to be at 8.0 to get a DT of 8.0

[Hayabusa]

Remains 905 mb

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N20°20' (20.3°)
E150°35' (150.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

[Highteeld]

12z Hwrf at 15z took Halong sub 900 mb:

[CrazyC83]

I'd probably go with 170 kt. Not quite at Haiyan or Patricia levels, but clearly an extremely intense storm.

[Highteeld]

Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON

[aspen]

Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON

Some people apparently aren’t doing their jobs very well.

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm
24W HALONG 191105 1800 20.2N 150.6E WPAC 155 897

[TorSkk]

Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON

Some people apparently aren’t doing their jobs very well.

Technically CMG didn't meet the width requirements at 1800Z

[Highteeld]

Makes no sense at all


TPPN11 PGTW 051841

A. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 20.27N

D. 150.55E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON

Some people apparently aren’t doing their jobs very well.

Technically CMG didn't meet the width requirements at 1800Z

That's not what I mean -- the 15Z analysis declared a T 7.0 for Halong, while this one, the latest, referred it to a 7.5.

[aspen]

Hmmm
24W HALONG 191105 1800 20.2N 150.6E WPAC 155 897

T#7.5 and sub-900 mbar....fair enough. Better late than never.

[aspen]

The changes in Halong’s CDO suggest an EWRC may finally be starting or will be starting soon, but it’s impressive how long it maintained such an amazing convective presentation. I can’t wait for the first visible images to come in once the Sun rises.