BOB: BULBUL (Matmo) - Deep Depression

[mrbagyo]

Matmo is trying to form a decent core but it's also running out of time - landfall is just a few hours away.

[aspen]

Matmo is trying to form a decent core but it's also running out of time - landfall is just a few hours away.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/WPAC/23W.MATMO/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/20191030.1055.f17.x.91h.23WMATMO.40kts-998mb-132N-1110E.090pc.jpg

It’s really trying to get its act together. Outflow is excellent and convection is still flaring and improving. If it’s lucky, it could become a marginal typhoon before landfall.

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like the center will come ashore near or over the coastal city of Quy Nhon, where a weather station recorded a wind gust of 75.6 kph and a SLP of 995.5 mb at 10pm local time (3pm UTC). Total rainfall recorded in the last 3hrs is 39mm.

[aspen]

The Euro is no longer alone in showing Matmo’s redevelopment. The GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON all show its remnants becoming a new depression or named storm in the Bay of Bengal by midweek, some of which show it reaching hurricane intensity.

[doomhaMwx]

The remnants are currently over the Andaman Sea. An ASCAT pass earlier today showed that the circulation remains well-defined but very weak. Global models redevelop it into a TS once it enters the Bay of Bengal.

Now, while NRL/JTWC still recognizes this as Matmo(23W), I don't know if IMD will retain the name Matmo or use the next NIO storm name if it does redevelop into a TS? I have not seen any IMD bulletins acknowledging that Matmo has moved into the NIO basin (but definitely, this is Matmo).

[doomhaMwx]

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
96.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW
5-10 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 030343Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS
SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ESTIMATED AT 29-30C ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SLOW-DEVELOPING SYSTEM NOT
REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF
INDIA AS IT CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO LOW.

[TorSkk]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 514
NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041556Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTIMATED AT 30-
31C, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT, DEPICTING A SLOW-
DEVELOPING SYSTEM REACHING 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 WHILE ON A
MEANDERING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMNANTS OF 23W IS BEING ASSESSED AS MEDIUM BASED ON ITS CURRENT
STRUCTURE, DESPITE THE LATE FORMATION TIMELINE IN GLOBAL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

HWRF is aggressive making Matmo a 935 mb TC, could we see another super cyclonic storm?

[aspen]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 514
NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041556Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTIMATED AT 30-
31C, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT, DEPICTING A SLOW-
DEVELOPING SYSTEM REACHING 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 WHILE ON A
MEANDERING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMNANTS OF 23W IS BEING ASSESSED AS MEDIUM BASED ON ITS CURRENT
STRUCTURE, DESPITE THE LATE FORMATION TIMELINE IN GLOBAL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

HWRF is aggressive making Matmo a 935 mb TC, could we see another super cyclonic storm?

It’s possible. SSTs in the Bay of Bengal are much higher than those of the Arabian Sea (around 29-30 C) and have been virtually untouched since Fani back in May.

[Nancy Smar]

The remnants are currently over the Andaman Sea. An ASCAT pass earlier today showed that the circulation remains well-defined but very weak. Global models redevelop it into a TS once it enters the Bay of Bengal.

Now, while NRL/JTWC still recognizes this as Matmo(23W), I don't know if IMD will retain the name Matmo or use the next NIO storm name if it does redevelop into a TS? I have not seen any IMD bulletins acknowledging that Matmo has moved into the NIO basin (but definitely, this is Matmo).

https://i.imgur.com/KdY6DTz.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/oFupz5n.png

TCIN20 DEMS 050600
BOB 23W (MATMO)
A. 05/0900Z
B. 13.1N
C. 90.4E
D. T1.5
E. IR/VIS
F. INSAT 3D/ INSAT3DR
PAGE 2
G. CTT = - 93.0 DEG CEL
H. REMARKS:- SHEAR PATTERN. CENTER NOT VERY CLEARLY DEFINED ,
LIES WITHIN 0.5 DEG OF 13.1N/90.4E.
I. TOO: 05/1540EF=
IMD will retain the name Matmo.

[doomhaMwx]

Upgraded into a depression by IMD. The IMD forecasts some significant strengthening and has the system becoming a very severe cyclonic storm (typhoon/hurricane intensity) a couple of days from now.

Wow, 3 very severe cyclonic storms in a row just during the last 2 weeks or so if the forecast verifies!

[mrbagyo]

This basin has gone berserk this October-November.

Btw, BOB can certainly support an insane system

[aspen]

This basin has gone berserk this October-November.

Btw, BOB can certainly support an insane system
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/nindpot.png

Compare that to the Arabian Sea, which has been sucked dry by two consecutive major hurricane equivalent cyclones.

So far it seems like Matmo won’t bomb out in the BOB, but those very high MPIs are reason enough to keep an eye on it, especially with it being so close to land.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure IMD will go along with JTWC and call this Matmo. They are calling it a depression but NOT Tropical Depression Matmo. They're the RSMC of the basin, so what they say goes. We'll see...

[TorSkk]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 544
NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY PARTIALLY OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 051548Z ASCAT
PASS FURTHER DEPICTS THE LLC, WHICH IS NOW MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH A
SMALL SWATH OF 30KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINAL
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, AND UNFAVORABLE
(20-25 KNOTS) VWS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ESTIMATED AT 30-31C, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 23W WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND TAU 48-72 AS IT CONTINUES ON
A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

The remnants are currently over the Andaman Sea. An ASCAT pass earlier today showed that the circulation remains well-defined but very weak. Global models redevelop it into a TS once it enters the Bay of Bengal.

Now, while NRL/JTWC still recognizes this as Matmo(23W), I don't know if IMD will retain the name Matmo or use the next NIO storm name if it does redevelop into a TS? I have not seen any IMD bulletins acknowledging that Matmo has moved into the NIO basin (but definitely, this is Matmo).

https://i.imgur.com/KdY6DTz.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/oFupz5n.png

TCIN20 DEMS 050600
BOB 23W (MATMO)
A. 05/0900Z
B. 13.1N
C. 90.4E
D. T1.5
E. IR/VIS
F. INSAT 3D/ INSAT3DR
PAGE 2
G. CTT = - 93.0 DEG CEL
H. REMARKS:- SHEAR PATTERN. CENTER NOT VERY CLEARLY DEFINED ,
LIES WITHIN 0.5 DEG OF 13.1N/90.4E.
I. TOO: 05/1540EF=
IMD will retain the name Matmo.

This doesn't seem to be from the IMD?

[doomhaMwx]

TCFA by JTWC. Deep Depression by IMD.

WTIO21 PGTW 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 23W)//
RMKS/

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS LOW LEVEL TURNING UNDERNEATH A CIRRUS
SHIELD. A 051548Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH AN
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 27-28
DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OUTLIER AS IT MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERN TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

The Depression over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea
moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 09 kmph, intensified into a Deep Depression and lay
centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 6
th November 2019, over eastcentral & adjoining southeast
Bay of Bengal, near Lat.13.4°N and Long. 89.3°E, about 390 km west-northwest of Maya Bandar
(Andaman Islands), about 810 km south-southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 920 km south-southeast of
Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and 960 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh) . It is very
likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move westnorthwestwards for some more time and then north-northwestwards, towards West Bengal &
adjoining north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts.

[doomhaMwx]

Another underestimated system. ASCAT passes last night (local time) already showed a 40kt TS!

[wxman57]

The IMD is always a bit slow in upgrading TCs. I'm still anxious to see if they call this Matmo or give it their own name. Yes, it's formed from the residual moisture/energy from Matmo, but that's about it. I'm thinking that IMD will go with its own name, as they're not calling it "Deep Depression Matmo".

[aspen]

It’s official: Matmo is back. The forecast track has it reach 65 kt within the next few days, but it’s not inconceivable it could get stronger, if it’s allowed to take advantage of the extremely warm waters of the BOB.

[TorSkk]

Now Cyclonic Storm Bulbul