Texas Fall 2019

[bubba hotep]

I'll try to bring some snow back with me





Also, was able to grab a shot of the tornado scar on my way out

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Spent the last week in Avon, CO. Sorry i've been absent. Saw tons of snow and skied in the coldest weather I've ever experienced IN OCTOBER.
Anyways, excited to see the front coming down for next week. -EPO doing the trick for us. I'll take it, more to come this winter.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS = early next week.

[northjaxpro]

Latest 00z GFS run just out advertising a massive 1053 mb Arctic High dropping into Montana early Monday, and has strong southern stream energy riding over into the cold dome as it filters into Northern and Central TX with a major ice storm on next Tuesday, Nov. 12.

[Haris]

[Ntxw]

STY Halong and the Aleutians will likely give us model mayhem for a few more days...

[bubba hotep]

STY Halong and the Aleutians will likely give us model mayhem for a few more days...

Yep, record strength (?) recurving typhoon setting off a latent heat bomb. Good luck with that models.

[Cerlin]

As much as I want winter weather, definitely hoping an ice storm is just a fluke right now.

[ravyrn]

Snowfall can certainly happen in early November. This was a video I took at my apartment in Jacksonville, TX just after midnight on November 13th. I caught the tail-end of it.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5RFEphugPI

It was actually a really heavy snowfall when it first started for our area, but I was at Whataburger and had left my phone at home. It wasn't cold enough for anything to stick, but it was a really heavy snowfall. I'd compare the flakes falling to this video I took in Little Elm 6 years earlier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oir14pFJTgI

[Brent]

Euro has no precip when the GFS has the winter storm

the high is further south

[Portastorm]

I sure hope this early November pattern is indicative of what we’re going to see this winter as an overall, consistent pattern.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hello GFS. The Euro pushes it east, bummer.... but later in the week next week, its showing another classic snow setup for Texas at the 500 MB level. Any details on the Euro for Nov 15?

If we can get sea ice coverage to completely cover the area just north of alaska, would help build these highs even higher.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV ends their discussion acknowledging the chance of a changeover though they are not including a changeover in the forecast yet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pardon me for not posting pics, but it looks like the GFS is trending the trough a bit more west than past runs. This is positive for us, aiming the HP right down the shoot into Texas. What isnt working out for us is the timing of the moisture. The Low near the baja is trending east and is getting ahead of the cold some, limiting best possible timing for frozen precip

[Ralph's Weather]

Pardon me for not posting pics, but it looks like the GFS is trending the trough a bit more west than past runs. This is positive for us, aiming the HP right down the shoot into Texas. What isnt working out for us is the timing of the moisture. The Low near the baja is trending east and is getting ahead of the cold some, limiting best possible timing for frozen precip

We know the -EPO will drive a big high down the Plains and we are pretty certain there will be good moisture around the front from a EPac feed. Now if we get the Mexican shortwave to hold back until the Arctic air is entrenched then we could see some wintery fun otherwise we are in for a few cold days and another hard freeze for much of the state.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pardon me for not posting pics, but it looks like the GFS is trending the trough a bit more west than past runs. This is positive for us, aiming the HP right down the shoot into Texas. What isnt working out for us is the timing of the moisture. The Low near the baja is trending east and is getting ahead of the cold some, limiting best possible timing for frozen precip

We know the -EPO will drive a big high down the Plains and we are pretty certain there will be good moisture around the front from a EPac feed. Now if we get the Mexican shortwave to hold back until the Arctic air is entrenched then we could see some wintery fun otherwise we are in for a few cold days and another hard freeze for much of the state.

Yep. This is a classic ice storm setup, (which i'm not against.)

[Ntxw]

Pardon me for not posting pics, but it looks like the GFS is trending the trough a bit more west than past runs. This is positive for us, aiming the HP right down the shoot into Texas. What isnt working out for us is the timing of the moisture. The Low near the baja is trending east and is getting ahead of the cold some, limiting best possible timing for frozen precip

The same thing happened in the late October outbreak. What is happening is climo vs real time forcing. The North Pacific EPO "blob" is even more west than 2013-2014, so we will play this game with the models all winter. Montana is the magnet, not the Dakotas or Minnesota. Guidance will continue to want to go with the west-east flow and initially drive it east-southeast but will correct in real time due to what is happening in the North Pacific that builds stronger HPs and hugging the front range.

The trends are pretty clear and you can see this happening over and over.







It's gonna cold y'all!

[Ntxw]

Also check out the GFS trends for the baja/southwest shortwave. Initially it was shown to hang out there for awhile but now has trended to come out and create a much wetter solution for much of Texas at the same time cold is trying to come in. The Pacific is causing model mayhem.



It won't take much more for there to be a major winter storm in the southern plains in what will be one of the biggest November cold blasts since 2014.

[Ntxw]

GFS has DFW with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s Tuesday. By default you can knock off 5 degrees from that as history has shown for the model bias. That's near record territory for the date which is 39/21 back in 1911. We've gone entire winters that barely gets that cold!

What has happened the past 3 weeks has been way out of the ordinary, this is not normal. We've been under the stretch of near record anomalous cool/cold period since mid October.

[wxman57]

I'm not liking the pattern for next week. Might be cold enough for some sleet across Texas (not in Houston).