BOB: BULBUL (Matmo) - Deep Depression

[1900hurricane]

Well, gonna need to figure out how to deal with a name change over the same ATCF designation in my code.

[wxman57]

It’s official: Matmo is back. The forecast track has it reach 65 kt within the next few days, but it’s not inconceivable it could get stronger, if it’s allowed to take advantage of the extremely warm waters of the BOB.

Matmo is NOT the official name, it's Bulbul. The IMD is the official RSMC of the NIO.

[mrbagyo]

Ganges Delta

[doomhaMwx]

Is JTWC not aware yet that IMD has named this Bulbul? They're still using the name Matmo in current warning, but I imagine they're going to change that soon in their upcoming warnings.

[aspen]

Kept at 55 kt for the 12z BT update.

[doomhaMwx]

SATCON also supports 55kts with the latest microwave images at ~10Z.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11071042
SATCON: MSLP = 990 hPa MSW = 55 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 55.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 54 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 255 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

[1900hurricane]

Convection is impressive, but structure is tilted west wrt height from easterly shear. Notice how the 36 GHz (low level) center is east of the 89 GHz (mid level) center on this GPM pass. I'd probably classify the convective presentation as a CCC.

[TorSkk]

For some reason JTWC is still calling this Matmo

[aspen]

Now that Matmo-Bulbul has reached 65 kt, every named system in the NIO has reached hurricane intensity this year. There’s room for more intensification, but because of shear, it’s definitely going to be limited. Outflow seems pretty good in the W and N quadrants, but is restricted everywhere else.

[aspen]

Matmo-Bulbul’s CDO has become much cooler and more symmetrical, with either a warm spot or forming eye in the middle. Could this be the start of rapid intensification, or is it just a random appearance that will change within a few hours?

[Nancy Smar]

BULBUL-MATMO 23W T4.5/4.5 07/2030Z Bay of Bengal

TPIO10 PGTW 080026
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO)
B. 08/0000Z
C. 17.23N
D. 87.74E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A 4.0 AND PT A 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RICHARDSON

[aspen]

00z best track is up to 75 kt.

[TorSkk]

Bulbul has intensified into the sixth VSCS of the season

[mrbagyo]

Bulbul is now within Kolkata's radar range

[doomhaMwx]

Paradip radar

[doomhaMwx]

Total rainfall projections until tomorrow afternoon/evening local time. Could be a big flood threat to the Ganges Delta.



Moreover, storm surges possibly reaching heights of 2m(7ft) above normal astronomical tide are forecast for the delta.

West Bengal (from India Met Dept):
Storm surge of about 1.0 to 2.0 meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of South and North 24 Parganas and 0.5-1.0 meter height above Astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of east Medinipur during the time of landfall. The maximum extent of inundation is likely to be around 2 km over South and North 24 Parganas.

Bangladesh (from Bangladesh Met Dept):
Under the influence of the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Bulbul” and the moon phase, the low-lying areas of the coastal districts of Chattogram, Noakhali, Laxmipur, Feni, Chandpur, Borguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Barishal, Pirozpur, Jhalokathi, Bagherhat, Khulna, Satkhira and their offshore islands and chars are likely to be inundated by storm surge of 5-7 feet height above normal astronomical tide.

I really like using this image as a reference to storm surge / wave heights.

[doomhaMwx]

Restrengthening just prior to landfall.

23W MATMO 191109 1200 21.2N 87.9E WPAC 85 971

SATCON even at 97kts !

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11091207
SATCON: MSLP = 964 hPa MSW = 97 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 95.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 98 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 180 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.8 knots Source: MW

[doomhaMwx]

Eye/center now moving into the delta.

[doomhaMwx]

Bulbul is now centered over southern Bangladesh.




A gust of 150kph was recorded at a station in Khepupara, Bangladesh (in the Ganges Delta) shortly before 06Z today. Here are some weather observations from southern Bangladesh this Sunday Nov 10:

•Satkhira station (00Z): Sustained winds of 63kph NE; 24hr rainfall total of 144mm
•Barisal station (06Z): Sustained winds of 37kph NW; 24hr rainfall total of 222.5 mm
•Bhola station (06Z): Sustained winds of 41kph E; 24hr rainfall total of 147mm
•Khepupara station (06Z): Sustained winds of 37kph E; 150kph gust; 24hr rainfall total of 85mm