WPAC: FENGSHEN - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 191108 0000 9.0N 178.0E WPAC 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

Could it become a weak TD or TS?

[Hayabusa]

I don't really know from some previous runs ago they had it as a TS from Euro and GFS... now just weak TD and as usual another recurve. Having a straight long tracker beyond 150E much less near the dateline is hard to achieve this year.

[aspen]

The NAVGEM is surprisingly insistent that this will develop into a typhoon, despite all other models so far showing a minimal TC.

[Hayabusa]

What a change Euro 00z was weak now at 12z makes it relatively a strong one, because of another incoming big trough... Halong track again. Just LOL at these troughs this year tbh.
It's just one run could change into weak again in the next.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 081800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 176E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[1900hurricane]

More EPS members appear to be picking up the development of the invest.

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12Z still develops in contrast to GFS

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

The 00z GFS is more aggressive than any other run before it with 92W, and brings it to minimal typhoon status while passing through the Marianas.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100200Z-100600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZNOV2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZNOV2019//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9N 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL.
ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE LLC PERIPHERY AND MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A
092146Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY BEING HAMPERED BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

GFS recently became aggressive with this

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 101200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 169E WNW SLOWLY.

[aspen]

Maybe we could see something big come out of this. The recent development and model trends suggest 92W is putting itself together quicker than anticipated, and has a higher potential than ever before. It will be traveling across a region of 29-30 C SSTs over the next several days, so once wind shear relaxes, 92W could be given the opportunity to strengthen quite a bit. If it reaches named storm intensity before 91W, it will get the name Fengshen.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 191110 1800 12.8N 168.4E WPAC 20 1006

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

med

ABPW10 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102130Z-110600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101951ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 168.3E, APPROXIMATELY
249 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLC PERIPHERY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 101739Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO
A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
92W IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
36 TO 60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.