Texas Fall 2019

[Ntxw]

Don't look now but the Ensembles are starting to correct in the EPO region. Raising NW North American heights, that's another -EPO (cold blast) look for Thanksgivings week. Perhaps as it gets closer we will see the OP models follow suit. Like this last time the GFS will probably be the first to show it somewhere in the 240-300hr time frame.

[Brent]

I've seen multiple analog references to 2014 for this coming winter and how this November has been a lot like that one. Interestingly enough, November 2014 had a three-day series of highs only in the 40s in Austin right around the same time as we have had this year. Hmm ...

ah 14-15, my first winter here, the only snowy one...

Had a dusting of snow on November 16th and then December/January/most of February didn't have anything til the final week of February with 3 winter storms and the big snowstorm in early March(which is the last time it really snowed here..)

btw, just for a tease(its still 2 weeks away) but I checked TWC's app for Thanksgiving and the forecast right now has a chilly rain with temps in the 50s

Will be interesting to see how it looks as we get closer

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Feels like a classic Ohio fall day here, 51 degrees with drizzle. Perfect long sleeved t-shirt and shorts weather.

People in the Woodlands look at me weird when I run in shorts and a t shirt in 40 degree weather. I love the cold!

[harp]

Don't look now but the Ensembles are starting to correct in the EPO region. Raising NW North American heights, that's another -EPO (cold blast) look for Thanksgivings week. Perhaps as it gets closer we will see the OP models follow suit. Like this last time the GFS will probably be the first to show it somewhere in the 240-300hr time frame.

Hasn't shown up on the GFS yet. 18Z just finished running.

[rwfromkansas]

My first winter in DFW was also 14-15. It was a nice winter. Then...zip. Lol.

[Quixotic]

My first winter in DFW was also 14-15. It was a nice winter. Then...zip. Lol.

This is not normal. This is the longest stretch in DFW history. I’ve been here since the early 70s and 1997-2000 was quite devoid of snow. February of 2000 it ended with a couple of inches of sleet and snow.

[hamburgerman7070]

Don't look now but the Ensembles are starting to correct in the EPO region. Raising NW North American heights, that's another -EPO (cold blast) look for Thanksgivings week. Perhaps as it gets closer we will see the OP models follow suit. Like this last time the GFS will probably be the first to show it somewhere in the 240-300hr time frame.

Ntxw, if you go to DACULA WEATHER MJO you will see many different mjo charts from various models. Which model makes the most sense with the mjo currently? That site hasnt updated today, which it usually does every day for the most part.

[harp]

GFS continues to look boring for the rest of the month. I do realize it's early, however...

[Ntxw]

Don't look now but the Ensembles are starting to correct in the EPO region. Raising NW North American heights, that's another -EPO (cold blast) look for Thanksgivings week. Perhaps as it gets closer we will see the OP models follow suit. Like this last time the GFS will probably be the first to show it somewhere in the 240-300hr time frame.

Ntxw, if you go to DACULA WEATHER MJO you will see many different mjo charts from various models. Which model makes the most sense with the mjo currently? That site hasnt updated today, which it usually does every day for the most part.

I'm not sure which model is the "best" for the mjo. I don't generally look at individual guidance for long range and choose one over the other. Beyond 3 days a composite has proven consistently to be the best and is often the blend local WFO's use.

As far the MJO itself you simply go with the background state. 2019 is sinking IO/MC and rising Pacific/West Hem. The MJO will tend to die off over the IO and Indonesia only to re-emerge stronger over the Pacific. This is due to the extreme +IOD/cold waters around Indonesia. Low freq forcing can easily paint this picture as sinking motion is persistent over the IO/MC region in blue below. Been going on all year and will continue. This will be a key player in a cold winter.

[Brent]

big rain event next weekend(bigger on the GFS than the Euro) but no cold air

the ensembles do go somewhat colder starting there towards Thanksgiving but nothing that cold yet, has highs in the mid/upper 50s on Thanksgiving(again 13 days away..)

[Ralph's Weather]

We are def overdue for some decent snow. Really the whole area from N/NE TX up to SE KS/SW MO is. And we are due for a big snow also. The last two 4+ inch events I can recall were 2000 and 2010.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Don't look now but the Ensembles are starting to correct in the EPO region. Raising NW North American heights, that's another -EPO (cold blast) look for Thanksgivings week. Perhaps as it gets closer we will see the OP models follow suit. Like this last time the GFS will probably be the first to show it somewhere in the 240-300hr time frame.

Ntxw, if you go to DACULA WEATHER MJO you will see many different mjo charts from various models. Which model makes the most sense with the mjo currently? That site hasnt updated today, which it usually does every day for the most part.

I'm not sure which model is the "best" for the mjo. I don't generally look at individual guidance for long range and choose one over the other. Beyond 3 days a composite has proven consistently to be the best and is often the blend local WFO's use.

As far the MJO itself you simply go with the background state. 2019 is sinking IO/MC and rising Pacific/West Hem. The MJO will tend to die off over the IO and Indonesia only to re-emerge stronger over the Pacific. This is due to the extreme +IOD/cold waters around Indonesia. Low freq forcing can easily paint this picture as sinking motion is persistent over the IO/MC region in blue below. Been going on all year and will continue. This will be a key player in a cold winter.

https://i.imgur.com/BdKorZa.gif

Dynamically, what does this mean? What cogs in the wheel of the atmosphere will be effected?

[Ntxw]

Don't look now but the Ensembles are starting to correct in the EPO region. Raising NW North American heights, that's another -EPO (cold blast) look for Thanksgivings week. Perhaps as it gets closer we will see the OP models follow suit. Like this last time the GFS will probably be the first to show it somewhere in the 240-300hr time frame.

Hasn't shown up on the GFS yet. 18Z just finished running.

Op models are now showing GOA ridging and high latitude ridging in their medium-long range. It will not be the severe cold we just saw, but more typical for November with blocking. The moderation period looks short lived. We may end up with a top 5 coldest Novembers, at the very least top 10 for parts of TX.

[CaptinCrunch]

Novenmber 2019 as of today is 0.1 degree off from #10 lowest average temp for November @ 51.7F (#10 - 51.6F) November 2014 ended with a record monthly mean of -5.1F and is tied for #6 coldest @ 51.5F average.

As I said the other day, the warm up next week will be brief, and upper 50's low 60's will return by next weekend. Looking towards Thanksgiving we see another trof for the middle of the country and another strong cold front, but I don't see it being as cold as what we just had, high's dropping to the upper 40's lows around 32. It should make for a nice Holiday feeling with a fireplace, football, and lots of food!

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS continues the trend of showing warmups in the longer range and then backing off. As Ntxw posted above, the Pacific has been pretty stable with the strong IOD signal but the most encouraging thing is how the NAO has been pretty resistant to any prolonged positive stretches. I think the Pacific will continue to show a favorable pattern for Texas. Now if we can hold on to some -NAO??? Watch out!

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, if you go to DACULA WEATHER MJO you will see many different mjo charts from various models. Which model makes the most sense with the mjo currently? That site hasnt updated today, which it usually does every day for the most part.

I'm not sure which model is the "best" for the mjo. I don't generally look at individual guidance for long range and choose one over the other. Beyond 3 days a composite has proven consistently to be the best and is often the blend local WFO's use.

As far the MJO itself you simply go with the background state. 2019 is sinking IO/MC and rising Pacific/West Hem. The MJO will tend to die off over the IO and Indonesia only to re-emerge stronger over the Pacific. This is due to the extreme +IOD/cold waters around Indonesia. Low freq forcing can easily paint this picture as sinking motion is persistent over the IO/MC region in blue below. Been going on all year and will continue. This will be a key player in a cold winter.

https://i.imgur.com/BdKorZa.gif

Dynamically, what does this mean? What cogs in the wheel of the atmosphere will be effected?

It prevents major warm ups. Remember, when the MJO is able to progress through 1+2+3+4 phases (IO->Maritime Continent) those are the La Nina phases, in the heart of winter they are notorious for extreme warm ups. It also feeds the Okhotsk low which favors cold over North America. It can get a lot more complicated than that but general terms.

[Ntxw]

This is the kind of blocking pattern we saw back in 2009, eastern trough with baja low. Not saying this will be the case verbatim, but it's going to stay chilly and stormy. Perhaps we may see some early chances for snow in December.

[CaptinCrunch]

2009-2010 was the winter of winters since 1976-77, 77-78. Colder than avg Dec with 3.3" of snow, average Jan, and then a much colder Feb with that record 12.5" of snow on the 11th/12th.

[Ralph's Weather]

I had another good hard freeze this morning at 27. I have only had one day with an above freezing low in the past six days. Only 3 above 60 lows and only 4 highs above 70 for the first half of November.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose. He had a satellite image that shows the entire state of Texas cloud free, along with Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Amazing for this time of year! You usually see cloud free extent like that in the heat of Summer with the Ridge of Death.


Sunny, Dry and Fall-Like Weather this Weekend and the First Half of Next Week.
Friday, November 15, 2019 2:36 PM

After several days of cloudy, cold and damp weather, sunshine has returned to the Lone Star state.


RAMMB-CIRA 11/15/2019 12:50 pm CST


The trough of low pressure responsible for the recent overrunning pattern has moved off to the east, allowing an area of drier air to spread south into the state. A dry sunny and stable weather pattern is now in place and is forecast to continue through the weekend. Expect a light northeast wind at 5-10 mph this afternoon and tonight. A light southerly wind is predicted for Saturday.

With abundant sunshine in place, today's temperature should warm to around 60-62 degrees.
It will chilly tonight, with a light freeze expected across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Lows Saturday morning will be around 30-32 degrees, with middle 30s occurring towards the coast.
Saturday's temperature will be in the mid-60s.
Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the low 40s near the coast.
High temperatures Sunday look to be around 68-70 degrees.
Forecasts call for a weak trough of low pressure to swing southeast across the southern Plains states on Sunday. A cold front associated with the trough is predicted to sweep south our region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. With only meager moisture levels in place, no rain is forecast with the cold front. Sunny and dry weather will follow the front Monday through Wednesday. The front is not expected to bring any significantly cooler air. In fact, milder temperatures are forecast for the first half of next week.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are predicted to be in the mid-70s, rising to the upper 70s on Wednesday. Low temperatures Monday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, rising to the mid and upper 40s Tuesday morning and the low to mid-50s Wednesday morning.

The weather pattern is predicted to become more unsettled late next week, continuing into next Saturday. Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure over the Southwestern US to lift northeast to the southern Plains states during the upcoming period, pulling clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a Canadian cold front is predicted to sink south across our area next Thursday, with the front then pulling up stationary near the coast. Periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast next Thursday through Saturday. Rainfall forecasts as of now are calling for general totals to be in the range of 0.5 to 1 inch. Just slightly cooler temperature are forecast for late next week and into next weekend, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.

Longer-range outlooks call for continued mild temperatures through the first half of the following week (November 25th). It's too early yet to have a good handle on the weather for Thanksgiving. I will point out some of the long-range modeling is calling for the weather pattern to trend more unsettled around Thanksgiving. We'll begin to get a better idea on Thanksgiving weather next week so stay tuned for that.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx