WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

93W INVEST 191116 0600 8.0N 153.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

This is being "hyped" for more than a week now.
Is this going to be another bust or this is it ?
Next name is Fung-wong.

[mrbagyo]

GFS 00z run kinda lowered their landfall intensity and right now, this system just looks pathetic.

[aspen]

It could rapidly develop if given the chance. OHC/SSTs are still high enough to support a sub-900 mbar storm from its current location to the Philippines. However, it’s running out of time and room to do so.

[Hayabusa]

Development keeps getting delayed since the past 2 runs only developing it after passing the south of Guam.

[mrbagyo]

Ew.

[1900hurricane]

I don't think this one will be too notable. Looks like it's getting started too late/far west given how fast it is moving.

[dexterlabio]

I think it's still worth keeping an eye on... Honestly I am not paying much attention to the long-range intensity forecasts as models kind of overplayed Kalmaegi last week. Although I'm still not letting my guard down, Nock-ten in 2016 was still a developing invest area when it passed south of Guam, then it steadily consolidated after that.

[aspen]

If 93W wants to become the next significant storm of the season, it has to get its act together quickly. Landfall will probably be around 06-12z Wednesday. The GFS shows development between early Sunday and early Monday, which will only give it 48-72 hours to strengthen. However, I wouldn’t exclude the possibility of a stall; Kalmaegi was originally predicted to barrel through the Philippines but has been meandering off the coast of Luzon for the past few days now.

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

93W INVEST 191116 1800 7.8N 150.7E WPAC 15 1010

[Highteeld]

Looks a little healthier now than it did a few days ago

[mrbagyo]

GUAM Radar

[Hayabusa]

UKMET dropped it... and GFS has been weak, looking like another bust.

[dexterlabio]

Models have backed off in intensity. I kind of expected this already, particularly from the GFS. It has been showing this kind of scenario since October but never happened.

[mrbagyo]

looks like it has already passed 145E

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171430Z-180600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170752NOV2019//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZNOV2019//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10N
144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170833Z 91GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK BUT SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
BELOW FLARING CONVECTION ROTATING IN THE MIDLEVELS. LOW (5-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO GENERAL
WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (29-31C) SSTS IN THE VICINITY ARE
CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BUILDS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
PRIOR TO CROSSING OVER LUZON AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 171200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 09N 143E WEST 10 KT.

[aspen]

93W’s convection is becoming more abundant and consistent, but so far I don’t really see any signs of a circulation. I think it could develop within the next 24 hours and have enough time to near typhoon status.

The environment ahead seems pretty favorable, with high SSTs and OHC, low (<15 kt) wind shear, and no significant dry air masses.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 180000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 140E WEST SLOWLY.