Area of disturbed weather ENE of Leeward Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
northeast of the Leeward Islands late this weekend or early next
week. Some development is possible thereafter while the system
moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The
disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system later next
week and further development is unlikely after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[MarioProtVI]

EURO seems the only one right now developing this. Not entirely sold on development as it’s getting late and other models are inconsistent on development. Most likely just a broad mess that gets absorbed into a cold front later this week.

[hurricanes1234]

I just hope this brings some beneficial rain to the region.

It's been super dry with all this high pressure everyday.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands is associated with an upper-level low and
surface trough. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days while it moves northwestward and then
northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to
merge with a frontal system late next week and further development
is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located
over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands is associated with an upper-level low and
surface trough. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days while it moves northwestward and then
northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to
merge with a frontal system after midweek and further development
is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure appears to developing several hundred
miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and a tropical or subtropical depression
could form during the next few days while it moves northwestward and
then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast
to merge with a frontal system after midweek and further development
is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[EquusStorm]

Finally showing some cyclonic curvature and convection has been quite persistent. Ought to get an invest sometime.



I think because it's late November everyone's sleeping on the tropics right now but we have one if not two possible TC/STC by midweek and that's pretty impressive for that time of year. Would be just the cap on a strange season if we reached Tanya again.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure about 500 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms and strong winds on its northeast side. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical or
subtropical depression could form during the next two or three days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal
system after midweek and further development is not expected by that
time. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90L is up