WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Now things have gotten really interesting.

[NewbieAboutcyclones]

R.I anyone?

[doomhaMwx]

Might be a near hit/miss for the northeastern tip of Cagayan. Very rapid weakening when it moves into or briefly enters the Luzon Strait.

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 27W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK SLOWLY
POLEWARD AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 171017Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). A 170935Z SMAP IMAGE INDICATES MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 44 KNOTS (1-MINUTE) SUGGESTING THE INTENSITY COULD BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29C.
TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 24 TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON. AFTER TAU 36, TS 27W WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND INCREASING
VWS. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR AND NORTHEAST SURGE
FLOW WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KALMAEGI WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Looks like revised down to 50 knots, from 55

27W KALMAEGI 191117 1200 16.9N 124.5E WPAC 50 996

[mrbagyo]

bullseye pass

[aspen]

I highly doubt Kalmaegi will reach typhoon status if it retains such shallow and ragged convection.

[1900hurricane]

I think entraining some of the continental airmass associated with the NE monsoon is limiting it right now, as it has for most of its existence.

[Hayabusa]

27W KALMAEGI 191118 0000 17.5N 123.4E WPAC 60 985

TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 18 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 18 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°35' (17.6°)
E123°30' (123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Looks like its finally doing a decent job at mixing the dry air out.



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1196249463498661888

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a nascent eye (click for looping video).

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1196280689370505216

[Hayabusa]

27W KALMAEGI 191118 0600 18.1N 123.2E WPAC 65 987

STS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 18 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 18 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°00' (18.0°)
E123°10' (123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 280 km (150 NM)
SW 170 km (90 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

Kalmaegi has now built a pretty impressive inner core. SATCON near 75kts.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11180447
SATCON: MSLP = 979 hPa MSW = 73 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 74.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 69 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 160 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -6.3 knots Source: MW

[Hayabusa]

27W KALMAEGI 191118 1200 18.7N 123.0E WPAC 70 970

[doomhaMwx]

Passing off the northeastern tip of Cagayan towards the Luzon Strait.

27W KALMAEGI 191118 1200 18.9N 123.0E WPAC 75 980

[1900hurricane]

We had three recent AMSU passes. Two of them had the same RMW estimate and came very close together in terms of intensity. The RMW used with these two (19 km) was the JTWC RMW from the b-deck (probably due to an incomplete ring in microwave data on these passes), which looks too big to me. The third RMW estimate (37 km) looks a bit more reasonable, and was probably based of off the microwave data itself instead of using the JTWC input. ~65 kt/980 mb still looks like a decent intensity estimate to me right now.

WP, 27, 201911181059, 30, AMSU, IP, , 1843N, 12295E, , 2, 63, 1, 982, 1, MEAS, , , , , , , , , , , , 37, , W, CIMS, , , , , , , , 982, , NOAA15, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
WP, 27, 201911181211, 30, AMSU, IP, , 1892N, 12299E, , 2, 73, 1, 972, 1, MEAS, , , , , , , , , , , , 19, , W, CIMS, , , , , , , , 972, , NOAA18, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
WP, 27, 201911181257, 30, AMSU, IP, , 1901N, 12295E, , 2, 79, 1, 973, 1, MEAS, , , , , , , , , , , , 19, , W, CIMS, , , , , , , , 973, , NOAA90, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

*EDIT: I should add that this is as of about 12Z only.

[Hayabusa]

STS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 18 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 18 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°10' (19.2°)
E122°35' (122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

[Hayabusa]

27W KALMAEGI 191119 0000 19.0N 122.4E WPAC 80 970

[1900hurricane]

I can get behind that estimate.

[Hayabusa]

27W KALMAEGI 191119 0600 19.4N 122.6E WPAC 75 974

STS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 19 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 19 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°25' (19.4°)
E122°30' (122.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)