2019 WPAC Season
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The GFS is going nuts with another powerful >200 hr system. I would ignore it and call it a phantom, if it weren’t for the fact that the precursor disturbance/depression could form by 168-180 hours out (next Monday/Tuesday) and the Euro also shows a bit of a disturbance around that time. It might be something to watch in a few days if the models still show it. However, after 93W’s lackluster performance so far, I’m hesitant to build up any “hype” for this one.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
To me it appears that Kalmaegi's erratic track somehow affected 93W's development outlook. When the models were still showing 93W becoming a formidable system, Kalmaegi was expected to be already out of the picture by then, but now Kalmaegi is still lingering a few hundred miles from 93W's current location and that somehow changed the atmospheric setup.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Seeing the two in close proximity near the Philippines reminds me of a beefed up version of Pamela and Roger in 1982.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Time to hype again
During the next two weeks, robust Rossby wave activity over the central Pacific may help generate new tropical cyclones both north and south of the equator. Dynamical models favor the potential for tropical cyclogenesis between Guam and the Philippines, close or east of the current location of TD 28-W. Enhanced convection just west of the Date Line may provide another source for tropical cyclone development as well, so both of these regions are covered in a broad moderate confidence forecast area.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Hayabusa wrote:Time to hype again
https://i.imgur.com/lkq8HFr.pngDuring the next two weeks, robust Rossby wave activity over the central Pacific may help generate new tropical cyclones both north and south of the equator. Dynamical models favor the potential for tropical cyclogenesis between Guam and the Philippines, close or east of the current location of TD 28-W. Enhanced convection just west of the Date Line may provide another source for tropical cyclone development as well, so both of these regions are covered in a broad moderate confidence forecast area.
Looks like that’s what the GFS is picking up on. It still seems to be overdoing the intensity of the future system (a ~935 mbar Super Typhoon in early December), but now there’s actual support for it to develop. Even the Euro, NAVGEM, and ICON are catching up, showing a disturbance around 10*N and 140-160*W by Sunday-Wednesday.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Synoptically, guidance appears to be in good agreement establishing a near-equatorial trough by this weekend. With a stronger than average subtropical ridge juxtaposed over this trough and associated lower heights, an established disturbance will probably speed through the gradient region fairly quickly once again, much like Fung-Wong before it. That may pose an issue with organization and consolidation, especially with how low latitude it will start out, but I do think the chances of another tropical cyclone are fairly decent.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Almost all global models (GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON) show that near-equatorial trough developing a disturbance, depression, or named storm between Sunday and next Tuesday. There’s still plenty of time for this to change, and it could end up as a bust like Fung-Wong (since it will start out similar as pointed out by 1900hurricane), but so far the odds seem to be generally on its side.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
It's already there on the dateline, development starts, according to models, once it gets to 160E, Euro has it tracking faster while GFS is slower.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Hayabusa wrote:It's already there on the dateline, development starts, according to models, once it gets to 160E, Euro has it tracking faster while GFS is slower.
https://i.imgur.com/a5uwxGU.gif
https://i.imgur.com/bDVA3mL.gif
The Euro appears to be the outlier here. All other global models show development within the next 4-6 days, well before it ever reaches the Philippines. The GFS seems to be the slowest both in terms of the system’s speed and rate of development, but is by far the most aggressive in the long-term (no surprise there).
Here are the approximate development times and lat/long of the potential system in each of the latest global runs:
-18z GFS: 00-06z 11/26, around 11N/153E
-12z Euro: 12z 11/27, around 11N/131E
-12z CMC: 12-18z 11/24, around 8N/160E
-12z NAVGEM: 12-18z 11/24, around 11N/159E
-12z ICON: 18z-23z 11/24, around 10N/159E (there are signs of a depression as early as Saturday in this run)
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
aspen wrote:Hayabusa wrote:It's already there on the dateline, development starts, according to models, once it gets to 160E, Euro has it tracking faster while GFS is slower.
https://i.imgur.com/a5uwxGU.gif
https://i.imgur.com/bDVA3mL.gif
-18z GFS: 00-06z 11/26, around 11N/153E
I think you mean 12Z GFS, 18Z doesn't come out until approximately 1 hour from now.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The next available name in the WPac is Kammuri, which will likely be taken by newly designated Invest 94W within 5-7 days. After that, there’s Phanfone, and then Vongfong.
I really hope there will be enough time in the remainder of the season for a system to get the name Vongfong and be able to rapidly intensify. It would be cool to have two Super Typhoon Vongfongs this decade (and hopefully two that don’t bring serious impacts to land).
I really hope there will be enough time in the remainder of the season for a system to get the name Vongfong and be able to rapidly intensify. It would be cool to have two Super Typhoon Vongfongs this decade (and hopefully two that don’t bring serious impacts to land).
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
UKmet is starting to join in on a notable storm forming. GFS and Euro definitely cried wolf with 28W/Fung-Wong.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Highteeld wrote:UKmet is starting to join in on a notable storm forming. GFS and Euro definitely cried wolf with 28W/Fung-Wong.
Every global model (except for the ICON, which still supports developments) seems to want a strong system forming from 94W. The GFS, Euro, CMC, and NAVGEM all show a major hurricane equivalent system approaching the Philippines next week, with the latter supporting development as early as tomorrow afternoon.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Looks like the next big system is on the way. The GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM all forecast Invest 94W to develop into a depression this weekend into Monday and become a formidable typhoon early next week. SSTs/OHC are still high enough to support a Category 5 storm if other environmental requirements are met.
As for the other models, the Euro is an outlier and shows a slower-developing storm, while the ICON develops it around the same time as the GFS/CMC/NAVGEM but is very conservative with its intensity.
As for the other models, the Euro is an outlier and shows a slower-developing storm, while the ICON develops it around the same time as the GFS/CMC/NAVGEM but is very conservative with its intensity.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS now wants a recurve.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
94W’s development continues to get more complicated. The GFS, Euro, and NAVGEM all show another depression forming out of the same disturbance/region. While the GFS and NAVGEM have 94W become the dominant system and destroy the smaller one, the Euro keeps them apart enough so they both become powerful storms. On top of that, the NAVGEM has been trying to form yet another system behind 94W/94Wb at 90-120 hrs out.
The next available names are Kammuri, Phanfone, and Vongfong.
The next available names are Kammuri, Phanfone, and Vongfong.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
The one behind TD 94W, again another dateliner, it's already an LPA by JMA, to which models kind of developing it.
WWJP27 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 178E WEST SLOWLY.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 178E WEST SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
With Kammuri here, November 2019 has now 6 named storms, the most since 1991 season.
Notable typhoon at that time was Yuri
Notable typhoon at that time was Yuri
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS ensembles hinting on 2019's last hurrah on the second half of December. Perhaps this is only a noise but with the Indian Ocean having another period of activity, it seems like WPAC will follow. This has been my observation for the past several weeks, it looks like the activity in the IO and WPAC is somehow connected.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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