WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 191120 1800 7.4N 176.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Is this it?

[aspen]

It’s an invest already? I didn’t expect it to be classified for another few days, maybe Friday at the earliest.

[mrbagyo]

Been watching this since yesterday, pretty quick tagging.

[Hayabusa]

UKMET now sees it

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 191121 0000 4.6N 172.2E WPAC 15 1007

[aspen]

The GFS, Euro, CMC, and NAVGEM all show significant development of 94W into a typhoon by next week. While the ICON is much more conservative intensity-wise and the Euro still has 94W track quicker than any of the other global models, all five are in rather good agreement of a new depression or named storm between Saturday and Tuesday, most likely on Sunday-Monday.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

CMC has really hyped up in the last 4 runs, going down to 970s-960s mb

[aspen]

94W’s development could be interfered by the much larger Invest 90P to the south, which could become a tropical cyclone as early as tonight or tomorrow. However, only the Euro has lowered its intensity estimate and development speed.

[1900hurricane]

EPS had an uptick in activity on the 00Z run, although there is some bifurcation between members between whether the main development is associated with 94W itself or another disturbance in the near equatorial trough to the west that gets pulled eastwards and then northwards as 94W passes over the top of it.

[Hayabusa]

Trough again...

[aspen]

There are currently two scenarios the global models are predicting: either 94W will take a sharp recurvature and/or stall around Guam and the Mariana Islands (GFS), or it will continue almost due west before making landfall in the Philippines (Euro and NAVGEM). In both scenarios, 94W passes near or through a “hot spot” of very high SSTs/OHC around 150*E, and remains below 15*N for most (GFS) or all (Euro/NAVGEM) of its life.

[Hayabusa]

or it will continue almost due west before making landfall in the Philippines (Euro and NAVGEM)

I'm not sure where in the world you are even seeing a landfall much less a concrete landfall, latest operational Euro and NAVGEM don't show it or don't even suggest it, especially NAVGEM.
Euro *might* show a west bound, it's extremely too soon to say it "will" or it "will landfall", just like what happened with Fung-wong where it's been overhyped to be a west tracker.

[aspen]

or it will continue almost due west before making landfall in the Philippines (Euro and NAVGEM)

I'm not sure where in the world you are even seeing a landfall much less a concrete landfall, latest operational Euro and NAVGEM don't show it or don't even suggest it, especially NAVGEM.
Euro *might* show a west bound, it's extremely too soon to say it "will" or it "will landfall", just like what happened with Fung-wong where it's been overhyped to be a west tracker.

https://i.imgur.com/kh3XufB.gif

https://i.imgur.com/XWnUCkB.gif

Sorry, the models had not fully loaded when I last checked them, so I didn’t see the stall and recurvature. It’s similar to what the GFS has been showing, except further west.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 222000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222000Z-230600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) IS LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. A 220724Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 220950Z ASCAT-B PASS SUPPORTS
THE LOCATION OF THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
(20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94W WILL
INITIALLY BE ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH DUE TO A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND NAVGEM DEPICT WINDS FULLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE CIRCULATION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

I'm starting to warm up on this system. Ensemble guidance is beginning to pick it up more and more with each successive suite. It's going to need that upper level low to its northwest to keep moving along, but there are certainly worse spots for a disturbance to be than at the end of a near-equatorial monsoon trough. Even with scant convection, you can pick out the low level vorticity on visible imagery.

[Hayabusa]

Guam should carefully watch this.

[Highteeld]

18z GFS really trended up in intensity near Guam compared to the 12z GFS (about 15-20mb)

[aspen]

18z GFS really trended up in intensity near Guam compared to the 12z GFS (about 15-20mb)

This might be the most aggressive I’ve seen the GFS since Hagibis.