WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 191125 0000 4.7N 176.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 250000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 177E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

If this would develop to a named storm, could it make it in time before November ends?
That would make it 7 named storms, including TD 94W, this November if ever

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 191126 1800 5.4N 173.2E WPAC 15 1006

WWJP27 RJTD 261800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 173E WEST 10 KT.

[Hayabusa]

JMA weather maps TD within 24 hours

WWJP27 RJTD 271800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 168E WEST 10 KT.

95W INVEST 191127 1800 5.2N 167.2E WPAC 15 1008

[mrbagyo]

The LLC is located near Pohnpei.
95W INVEST 191128 1800 6.5N 159.4E WPAC 15 1005


METAR: PTPN 282350Z 35009KT 8SM -RA BKN17TCU OVC130 26/24 A2974 RMK TCU ALQDS
1007 hpa
9 knots from the north

[Hayabusa]

low

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N
158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLC, BUT NOT
OVERHEAD. A 290429Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPLETE
LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE TO WARNING STATUS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 290600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 157E WEST 10 KT.

[Hayabusa]

Near warning

WWJP27 RJTD 300000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 07.2N 155.5E MARSHALLS MOVING WNW SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

95W INVEST 191130 0000 7.1N 155.8E WPAC 20 1004

[Hayabusa]

med

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZNOV2019-010600ZDEC2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300152ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 158.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 233
NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
AN EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POCKETS
OF FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 300421Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS A DEFINED LLC AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST. A 292207Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS
15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC WITH HIGHER 30-35 KNOT
WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

I don't even have any good expectations for this system

WTPN21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3N 155.2E TO 7.1N 149.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010012Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 154.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 154.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175
NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
302300Z 89GHZ METOP-B IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 302302Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-
25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020300Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

As expected

WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251Z DEC 19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 010300). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 154.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 149.3E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST OF CHUUK.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012306Z 89GHZ MHS
IMAGE REVEAL AN AREA OF SHEARED CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 150E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Down to low, back to watching long range hype again

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZDEC2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 148.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 596
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 030000Z 89GHZ METOP-B IMAGE REVEAL AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
HIGH (25-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MARGINAL TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZDEC2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 147.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.