WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Near STY

[mrbagyo]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/IupZkJJ.png[/mg]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/2naOFg1.png[/ig]

Still a pretty remarkable bifurcation right there but some ensemble members are now starting to cluster on a west solution.

[Hayabusa]

Hmm

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION THAT DISPLAYS MID-LEVEL
TURNING THAT PULLS THE EYE NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 251134Z METOP-C
ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE LLC IS SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON 20 KNOTS DEPICTED
NORTH OF THE LLC ON THE 251134Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. HOWEVER, FURTHER
TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION ARE 35 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN TD 29W AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM
AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 48. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH WILL TRACK EASTWARD PROVIDING A BREAK BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED STR AND A SECOND TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
THIS BREAK IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD
INTO THE CULL AFTER TAU 48. TD 29W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 REACHING 45 KNOTS AT TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO MORE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH TAU 36, COMBINED WITH THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE LLCC THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 48,
THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THE TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM RECURVING, THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AFTER TAU 48 DECREASES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK AS THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
THE TRACK. TD 29W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT SITS IN THE CULL
BETWEEN THE TWO STRS AND HAS MINIMAL STRONG STEERING INFLUENCES IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

What is a Cull? Is it just a typo? Do they mean Col

[1900hurricane]

What is a Cull? Is it just a typo? Do they mean Col

Based on context, it does appear that they meant col.

[1900hurricane]

Also, I think JTWC's position is too far south. I think it's up in the 10ºN vicinity. We'll see though, we should be getting some new ScatSat data soon.

[aspen]

While most models are showing rapid intensification into a Cat 4 after 29W moves out of its stall, I wouldn’t rule out RI before then. The ocean heat content around the region where 29W will slow down are high enough to support a 910-920 mbar system if other conditions are met. However, that slow movement will likely cause 92W to start upwelling cooler waters and potentially damage the storm. It will be interesting to see if the stall creates upwelling-induced weakening and how that might change the future track and intensity.

[Hayabusa]

I rarely take ICON's intensity prediction seriously but...

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1199092829974388743

[Nancy Smar]

It will become a named tropical storm later today.

2019-11-26 00:00 UTC
- nameless -
Position: 10.28N 149.88E
CI: 2.0 / DT: 2.0
MET: 2.0 / PT: 2.0
FT: 2.0

[Hayabusa]

It will become a named tropical storm later today.

2019-11-26 00:00 UTC
- nameless -
Position: 10.28N 149.88E
CI: 2.0 / DT: 2.0
MET: 2.0 / PT: 2.0
FT: 2.0

We can only see , JMA had 2.0s in the previous recent storms but didn't name them until much later.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1199126342303965184

[Hayabusa]

29W TWENTYNINE 191126 0000 10.1N 149.8E WPAC 30 1001

[dexterlabio]

Interesting that JTWC is already hinting of a recurve very early in their forecast.

[Hayabusa]

Ahh, Kammuri, the Corona Borealis constellation.

TS 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 26 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 26 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°20' (10.3°)
E149°55' (149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10' (11.2°)
E146°40' (146.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00' (12.0°)
E143°40' (143.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 28 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E139°30' (139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00' (16.0°)
E136°00' (136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (450 NM)

[Nancy Smar]

Ahh, Kammuri, the Corona Borealis constellation.

https://i.imgur.com/T93RAbZ.png

TS 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 26 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 26 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°20' (10.3°)
E149°55' (149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10' (11.2°)
E146°40' (146.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00' (12.0°)
E143°40' (143.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 28 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E139°30' (139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00' (16.0°)
E136°00' (136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (450 NM)

Could be another typhoon Yolanda as models forecast. In that case, it would be a nightmare for Filipinos. the government of the Philippines should take some measures to defend the terrible typhoon.

[aspen]

Ahh, Kammuri, the Corona Borealis constellation.

https://i.imgur.com/T93RAbZ.png

TS 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 26 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 26 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°20' (10.3°)
E149°55' (149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10' (11.2°)
E146°40' (146.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00' (12.0°)
E143°40' (143.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 28 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E139°30' (139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00' (16.0°)
E136°00' (136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (450 NM)

Could be another typhoon Yolanda as models forecast. In that case, it would be a nightmare for Filipinos. the government of the Philippines should take some measures to defend the terrible typhoon.

Easy there, we’re not pulling that alarm just yet

[dexterlabio]

Ahh, Kammuri, the Corona Borealis constellation.

https://i.imgur.com/T93RAbZ.png

TS 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 26 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 26 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°20' (10.3°)
E149°55' (149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 26 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10' (11.2°)
E146°40' (146.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00' (12.0°)
E143°40' (143.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 28 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E139°30' (139.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 480 km (260 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00' (16.0°)
E136°00' (136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (450 NM)

Could be another typhoon Yolanda as models forecast. In that case, it would be a nightmare for Filipinos. the government of the Philippines should take some measures to defend the terrible typhoon.

Twice the nightmare since the Philippines also has hundreds of foreign delegates to look after with the ongoing SEA Games. There are already issues with the handling the event so what more if this one comes into the picture. Although I do believe and hope that the ECMWF doom scenario is not yet set in stone...

[Hayabusa]

Could be another typhoon Yolanda as models forecast. In that case, it would be a nightmare for Filipinos. the government of the Philippines should take some measures to defend the terrible typhoon.

Could be exceptionally intense but it has to beat the official/unofficial Hagibis and Halong intensities, or must get to a raw T8.0 first to get to Haiyan level, and I'm still not sold yet on a landfall, see latest GFS.