WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Hmmm

https://i.imgur.com/QPU1fc6.gif

I’m getting a bit of Halong vibes from that. I remember it wandered into a “hot spot” like that, and then blew up into a 165 kt beast. While Halong was aided by improving outflow channels as well, the OHC pattern in front of Kammuri seems to be improving for it, and at this point it’s a little too early to say if outflow will be enhanced or suppressed in those regions.

[Hayabusa]

Theoretically it can go below 900 mb

[mrbagyo]

I think it's Rapidly intensifying right now.

[aspen]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/WPAC/29W.KAMMURI/gmi/89h/1degreeticks/20191127.1836.gpm.x.89h_1deg.29WKAMMURI.65kts-978mb-123N-1394E.061pc.jpg

I think it's Rapidly intensifying right now.

Judging by the eroded eyewall and the slight displacement of the center from the middle of the deepest convection, I think there might be a bit of shear sneaking in from the north. I could be wrong, though, and any shear that is present could easily diminish soon.

[dexterlabio]

Models hint that explosive intensification will occur once Kammuri starts dipping a bit south of west. But of course we can't discount the possibility of that happening sooner.

[Highteeld]

Eyewall trying to close off?

[Highteeld]

Eyewall trying to close off?

https://i.imgur.com/TiTshAC.gif

Something structurally looks to be changing:

[Highteeld]

Two hot towers pivoting around the nascent eye usually harald's an RI phase.

[mrbagyo]

^ Hot towers exploding near the center - that's a harbinger of Rapid Intensification

[Hayabusa]

The name Kammuri has now a typhoon title officially

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 28 November 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 28 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°05' (12.1°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 29 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40' (14.7°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 30 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°40' (14.7°)
E137°00' (137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E133°00' (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 460 km (250 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 2 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°30' (14.5°)
E129°05' (129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 560 km (300 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°05' (14.1°)
E125°10' (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 600 km (325 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Morning visible loop

[ejeraldmc]

I'm getting a bad feeling about this. I'm from Southern Luzon and this is giving me anxiety. Hopefully, this storm suffers the fate of Hagupit (2014): killed by the NE monsoon.

[Hayabusa]

29W KAMMURI 191128 0000 11.7N 138.9E WPAC 70 975

[Hayabusa]

RI through 24 tau

[aspen]

29W KAMMURI 191128 0000 11.7N 138.9E WPAC 70 975

Looks like they adjusted the center position to be more within the mass of <-80 C convection.

[Highteeld]

Rapidly deepening at hour 90 on the 18z Euro

[Highteeld]

Extremely strong for the JMA model



Deepest I've seen from the Canadian as well

[dexterlabio]

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/index30.gif

Morning visible loop

Cant help but notice those gravity waves

[dexterlabio]

Rapidly deepening at hour 90 on the 18z Euro

https://i.imgur.com/tyTtNAa.png

Thank you so much for sharing. I heard 18z runs from the Euro are viewable via paid access.

[dexterlabio]

^Also it looks like the Euro is hinting an earlier landfall, perhaps happening before 12z Dec 3.