WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Super typhoon travelling below 15N

[Highteeld]

Eyewall closing off

[aspen]

I wonder how strong of a storm I’m going to wake up to tomorrow morning. I’m placing my bets on 80-90 kt for the 06z 11/28 update.

[1900hurricane]

Good tightly curved band on visible imagery. Maybe some very early hints of banding around a nascent eye?

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH
NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND A FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 272036Z
CORIOLIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS
AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM RJTD AND
T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSES INDICATE
A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A VERY
WARM (>30C) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. A TRANSITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL BREAK THE STEERING STR AND DRIVE TY 29W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE COL AND INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE. AROUND TAUS 36-
48 AND AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, A NEWLY-FORMED STR TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BUILD, REORIENT, AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO
120KTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KAMMURI WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE SECONDARY STR AND OVER THE VERY WARM PHILIPPINE SEA
TOWARD SOUTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OF 130KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK WITH NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT
AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE THAT GRADUALLY SPREADS
OUT 20 215NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE THE DIFFERENCES IN
ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS AND THE STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[ejeraldmc]

 https://twitter.com/ABSCBNNews/status/1199897645843730433




PAGASA is saying that it has a little chance of becoming a super typhoon.

[dexterlabio]

https://twitter.com/ABSCBNNews/status/1199897645843730433

PAGASA is saying that it has a little chance of becoming a super typhoon.

PAGASA's forecasting methods have improved over the years but I don't trust them declaring whether something will be a super typhoon or not. Mangkhut was not a super typhoon to them but Haima at landfall was. I don't know but something doesn't add up with their criteria.

[dexterlabio]

Nice banding features but I think the western side of Kammuri has some shear issues(?)

[Hayabusa]

up to 70 kt

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 28 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 28 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°40' (12.7°)
E138°30' (138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

29W KAMMURI 191128 0600 12.8N 138.5E WPAC 75 976

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

I think PAGASA defines Supertyphoon as system whose wind are in excess of 220 kph or 118.79 knots / 120 knots ( 10 minutes sustained) - they'll just hoist Signal number 5 when the wind reach the aforementioned threshold.

IMO, Haima 2016 didn't deserve the distinction at landfall in Luzon (Cagayan was under Signal 5).

Last storm to attain 120 knots from JMA was Typhoon Meranti

[Hayabusa]

I think the same, signal 5 shouldn't have been raised during Haima, it should've been raised during Mangkhut. Mangkhut was larger, stronger when it made landfall and its effects were widespread.

[dexterlabio]

Listening to this local radio show and a PAGASA forecaster said that they see Kammuri reaching up to 150 kph before landfall, thus warning signals will not exceed Signal No. 3.

[Highteeld]

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like intensification came to a halt?

[dexterlabio]

^Looks like it. The Euro made hints that this would happen as it forecasted only a 986mb system for tomorrow.