WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

None of the models (except for the aggressive HWRF) showed significant intensification during the stall, so this isn’t too unexpected. Looks like a bit of shear must’ve disrupted the core.

[mrbagyo]

Probably would intensify again once it starts moving west - away from the Near Equatorial Monsoon Trough-induced shear.
TD 96W may also be causing some nuisance

[aspen]

A large burst of <-80 C convection is firing around the center. We could be seeing some recovery from whatever put a halt on Kammuri’s intensification.

[Highteeld]

Yes, looks to be re-establishing a CDO again.



https://imgur.com/a/Wb71SGb

[Highteeld]

954 mb from the Canadian

[aspen]

The NAVGEM used to be very persistent about Kammuri turning out to sea. However, it has now fallen in line with the same Philippines landfall and rapid intensification scenario as the GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, etc are predicting. The GFS is a little less aggressive than before, probably as a result of Kammuri’s rather slow intensification in the last 24 hours, while the Euro still shows a sub-930 mbar Cat 4/5 at landfall.

[Highteeld]

Looks like Landfall will occur sometime around 06z Tuesday

[Highteeld]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a bout of ERI (extreme rapid intensification) during the last 36 hours before landfall.

[Highteeld]

Nuclear landfall

[1900hurricane]

The combination of easterly shear and dry air from the northeast monsoon appear to have halted intensification for the moment, which was reasonably predicted by guidance. Stronger intensification probably won't initiate until Kammuri begins moving westward again in a day or two. In addition to moving along the same direction as the shear vector, Kammuri will be moving into a more divergent upper air environment too. While the system is currently in the col region of mid-level ridging, the upper level ridge is actually pretty stout over Kammuri, direction easterly shear right at it. When it moves west, it'll move nearer the western side of the upper level ridge, where the shear magnitude is less and upper air wind vectors are splitting. Modified continental air from the northeast monsoon will likely help keep the system's core relatively small.

[aspen]

Nuclear landfall

https://i.imgur.com/VhobANQ.png

That’s almost as low as its prediction for Hagibis. The Euro had a peak of 900 mbar, right?

[Highteeld]

Nuclear landfall

https://i.imgur.com/VhobANQ.png

That’s almost as low as its prediction for Hagibis. The Euro had a peak of 900 mbar, right?

898.8 iirc

[Hayabusa]

Nuclear landfall

https://i.imgur.com/VhobANQ.png

That’s almost as low as its prediction for Hagibis. The Euro had a peak of 900 mbar, right?

Euro's peak on Hagibis was a little below 900 mb, still one hell of a run, next 00Z run will be interesting if it can challenge that or Hagibis.

[ManilaTC]

JMA's 18z track is out and it shows KAMMURI already made the left turn?

[Hayabusa]

It seems to be it is already moving westward

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 28 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 November>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

But plotting JTWC best track shows it is still moving north

29W KAMMURI 191128 1800 14.3N 138.5E WPAC 75 974

[Hayabusa]

All ensembles are now on a landfall

[1900hurricane]

It seems to be it is already moving westward

https://i.imgur.com/wLoAaXn.png

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 28 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 November>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

But plotting JTWC best track shows it is still moving north

29W KAMMURI 191128 1800 14.3N 138.5E WPAC 75 974

https://i.imgur.com/wOvxWk6.png

JMA is almost a full 2º west of JTWC, which is why the track suddenly juts left. Maybe it's a mistake (put 136.7ºE instead of 138.7ºE), but recent microwave data is much closer to the JTWC position.

[aspen]

It seems to be it is already moving westward

https://i.imgur.com/wLoAaXn.png

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 28 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 November>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

But plotting JTWC best track shows it is still moving north

29W KAMMURI 191128 1800 14.3N 138.5E WPAC 75 974

https://i.imgur.com/wOvxWk6.png

JMA is almost a full 2º west of JTWC, which is why the track suddenly juts left. Maybe it's a mistake (put 136.7ºE instead of 138.7ºE), but recent microwave data is much closer to the JTWC position.

https://i.imgur.com/jmeBC6o.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/DDCO9PT.jpg

Yeesh, that’s a really bad microwave presentation.

[aspen]

The new JTWC forecast is much more conservative than before (a consequence of Kammuri’s lackluster 24 hours) and has it peak at only 115 kt before landfall.

Judging by the increased OHC and improving wind patterns on its way to a Philippines landfall, and the aggressive global model runs, I’m pretty sure Kammuri is going to be far stronger than that.

[Hayabusa]

When was the last time JTWC used a 1st pronoun?

WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1017 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION, PLACED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CDO, THANKS TO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 281610Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. PGTW
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KTS) WHILE A
281641Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE IS 61 KTS, GIVING US LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
INTENSIFICATION. TY 29W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARDS A COL IN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 29W WILL BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STR
TO THE WEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY
STEADILY TO 105 KTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS, NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. WITH ABOUT 90 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE
STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE INTENSITY DECREASE IS DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. WITH 120 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU
120, NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. AS A RESULT, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN