NIO: Pawan - Cyclonic Storm (06A)

[1900hurricane]

Northern Hemisphere twin of 91S.

90A INVEST 191128 1200 2.6N 56.0E IO 20 1005

[doomhaMwx]

GFS and ECMWF suggest a weak short-lived TS could develop from this. CMC and NAVGEM are slightly more aggressive.

90A INVEST 191202 0000 5.1N 56.2E IO 25 1002

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 57.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 723 NM
NORTHEAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
011714Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE DEPICT BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
90A SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. NVGM,
HOWEVER, SHOWS 90A STEADILY INTENSIFYING WHILE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOCOTRA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[Nancy Smar]

ARB/05/2019
Dated: 02.12.2019
Depression formed over SW Arabian Sea & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. To intensify into a CS and move towards Somalia coast during next 72 hours.

[wxman57]

CFOSAT (new scatterometer) indicated 35kt winds 24 hours ago (ascending pass). It appears to have been a TS (CS) since yesterday.

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/c ... oord.y=191

[Nancy Smar]

IO, 06, 2019120300, , BEST, 0, 66N, 561E, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 80, 85, 1008, 165, 40, 0, 0, A, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, ioB02019 to io062019,

[doomhaMwx]

This may be able to hold on to tropical storm intensity until its landfall over northern Somalia by Friday. Only a handful of tropical storms are known to have made landfall in Somalia.

[doomhaMwx]

Cyclonic storm ‘Pawan’ (Pronounced as ‘Pavan’) over Southwest Arabian Sea moved
north-northwestwards with a speed of 06 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of
05th December, 2019 near latitude 09.5°N and longitude 56.3°E over Southwest Arabian Sea, about
430 km south-southeast of Socotra (Yemen) and 800 km east-southeast of Bosaso (Somalia). It is
very likely to maintain its intensity as a Cyclonic Storm during next 18 hours and weaken gradually
thereafter. It is very likely to move west-southwestwards during next 36 hours and cross Somalia
coast as a Depression between Latitudes 07° & 08°N during 07th December morning.

Primarily a heavy rainfall threat to northern Somalia. Yemen's Socotra island may also get good dose of rain as Pawan passes just to the south.

[aspen]

Pawan has been upgraded to 45 kt right before its landfall in Somalia.

[doomhaMwx]

Pawan made landfall at about 00Z. Both JTWC and IMD had it as a minimal TS/CS at landfall.

[doomhaMwx]

The Cyclonic storm ‘Pawan’ (Pronounced as ‘Pavan’) over Southwest Arabian Sea moved nearly westwards with a speed of 26 kmph during past 06 hours,
crossed Somalia coast near Latitude 7.4°N and Longitude 49.6°E during 0730 to 0830 hrs IST of today, the 07th December 2019 as a Cyclonic Storm
with a wind speed of 60-70 Kmph gusting to 80 Kmph, weakened into a Deep Depression and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 07th December, 2019
over coastal Somalia and neighborhood near latitude 7.4°N and longitude 49.5°E. It is very likely to continue to move nearly westwards and weaken into a
depression during next 06 hours and into a well marked low pressure area during the subsequent 12 hours