WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Latest:

[ManilaTC]

Did a little photoshop work, based on the 2015z microwave image (around an hour ago) The center would be 13.4N 132.7

https://imgur.com/APjiPrJ

[aspen]

Latest:
https://i.imgur.com/1x7DriR.png

It’s really slacking today. This is either going to be a bust or one of those last-minute RI storms that intensifies up until landfall.

[ManilaTC]

They caught it hehe...

TXPQ29 KNES 302053
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 29W (KAMMURI)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 13.4N

D. 133.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON FORECAST
POSITION, EXTRAPOLATION AND 1832Z SSMI PASS WHICH SUGGESTED THE CENTER
WAS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYSED. CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE
AT LEAST 1/3 INTO THE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.5 USING THE
SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/0847Z 13.4N 134.8E WINDSAT


...TURK

[aspen]

Kammuri has between 36-48 hours left to strengthen before landfall. While the eyewall is nothing but a chopped-up and ragged mess, the general structure of the storm has improved, with the LLC mainly embedded within a compact CDO instead of a broad CCC. Outflow is expected to improve thanks to a shortwave trough coming through, and OHC will be rising for the next 36 or so hours. The main question is if shear will improve as well.

Given the current structural dilemma, I would probably pass this off as a bust, if it wasn’t for the fact that the global models absolutely refuse to give up on significant intensification. They’ve all predicted this phase of no intensification and show RI starting within 12 hours. Will they be right, or have they made the biggest mistake of the decade?

[Highteeld]

Interestingly, it would seem that the 12z HWRF initialized Kammuri with the vortex misalignment

[aspen]

Interestingly, it would seem that the 12z HWRF initialized Kammuri with the vortex misalignment

https://i.imgur.com/pntUXJ7.png

It’s also interesting that, despite the misalignment, the HWRF bombs Kammuri our to the 930 mbar range.

[Highteeld]

Interestingly, it would seem that the 12z HWRF initialized Kammuri with the vortex misalignment

https://i.imgur.com/pntUXJ7.png

It’s also interesting that, despite the misalignment, the HWRF bombs Kammuri our to the 930 mbar range.

Would be quite the case study/memorable storm if this thing actually pans out the way the Euro/HWRF/UKmet are predicting.

[Highteeld]

12z JMA also hints at the vortex misalignment/tilt at analysis time

[1900hurricane]

It's still possible that Kammuri becomes rather intense, but it's starting to run out of time. It's just now starting to enter the region of divergent upper flow, so it's now or never. The center appears to be notably lining up better with convection over the past several microwave passes. Looks about 13ºN, 132ºE to me, although with not amazing certainty.

[Hayabusa]

The Euro has actually yet to bust except the run from 5 days ago 11/25/12Z, where right now or 12 hours ago at 11/30/12Z, it should've been already a 929 mb storm.

It would bust if comparing the current init analysis run to previous runs up to 72 hours, and the current is significantly more weaker, at least to me, that is what would be bust.

Still could RI, or even ERI but it has to do so right now.

[Hayabusa]

CMA is sticking to its guns of a 910 mb

[aspen]

It's still possible that Kammuri becomes rather intense, but it's starting to run out of time. It's just now starting to enter the region of divergent upper flow, so it's now or never. The center appears to be notably lining up better with convection over the past several microwave passes. Looks about 13ºN, 132ºE to me, although with not amazing certainty.

https://i.imgur.com/Y3i90GL.gif

https://i.imgur.com/iegQMun.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/VgnbJIl.jpg

It looks like the center is becoming better embedded in the CDO to me as well. This should, in theory, help the eyewall reform.

[Highteeld]

CMA is sticking to its guns of a 910 mb

https://i.imgur.com/ewHMTMq.png

[aspen]

I have never seen so many models being so aggressive with a storm that has so much going against it. Will this be one that subverts all our expectations?

[Highteeld]

I have never seen so many models being so aggressive with a storm that has so much going against it. Will this be one that subverts all our expectations?

Halong did the exact opposite, so I guess it's possible

[Hayabusa]

Interesting too that global models are on a more southerly landfall while the HWRF is on the northern side

[mrbagyo]

Convection are starting to build up on the Northeastern quadrant

[aspen]

I think you could make a case for Kammuri’s center being around 131-132 E.

[dexterlabio]

It looks like we will see reformation of the center as these two ball of convection rotate around a possible CoC.