WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/mBaZbux.png
https://i.imgur.com/fO3TaHv.png

Are those -100 C cloud tops?

yes

[aspen]

29W KAMMURI 191201 1800 12.9N 127.8E WPAC 80 972

[tatlopuyo]

JMA lowered their intensity to 70kts.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1201216960593321985
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1201216967987908609
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1201216970584145921

Now I’m thinking 120-130 kt was actually a pretty good estimate. The large core and limited time over water will probably keep Kammuri from becoming a Cat 5, even if landfall is delayed by 6-12 hours.

[Highteeld]

Band 10:
https://rammb-slider2.cira.colostate.ed ... 792&y=1041

[Highteeld]

1619z AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

[aspen]

The eye is clearing out within plenty of <-80 C convection. Get ready for raws to start spiking again.

[Highteeld]

20 hour evolution. How much did it intensify?



24 hour evolution.

[aspen]

20 hour evolution. How much did it intensify?

https://media.giphy.com/media/h8BnE1Zf9pApgWLn58/giphy.gif

Looks like an 85-90 kt Cat 2 to me. Once that eye clears out, it’s an easy 110-120 kt Ca 3/4.

[Highteeld]

NESDIS was thinking T 5.0 about 2 hours ago --

TXPQ29 KNES 012140
TCSWNP

A. 29W (KAMMURI)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 13.2N

D. 127.1E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DG
EYE SURROUNDED IN WHITE YIELDS EYE-ADJ OF +0.5 AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
E-NO OF 5.0 RESULTING IN DT OF 5.5. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS ROUNDING 6-HOUR AVG DOWN TO 5.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEVINE

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

8 hours later, I thought the eye would've fully opened by now

2019DEC01 231000 4.6 972.2 79.6 4.6 3.9 3.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -73.38 -77.87 UNIFRM N/A 24.1 13.04 -126.95 FCST HIM-8 22.1

[aspen]

8 hours later, I thought the eye would've fully opened by now

2019DEC01 231000 4.6 972.2 79.6 4.6 3.9 3.8 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -73.38 -77.87 UNIFRM N/A 24.1 13.04 -126.95 FCST HIM-8 22.1

It’s acting like it has a ton of time to intensify — which it doesn’t.

[Highteeld]

The eye is a little easier to see on visible satellite

[1900hurricane]

It looks like it's related to the larger core. You can see the eye somewhat on visible imagery. With a larger core, that means there's just that much more air to evacuate at the center.

[Highteeld]

I'd guess around 95-100 knots based on visible satellite. The eye is fairly large

[Hayabusa]

Back to 80 kt

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 2 December 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°55' (12.9°)
E126°35' (126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)

[Highteeld]

29W KAMMURI 191202 0000 12.8N 126.5E WPAC 90 964

[aspen]

It looks like it's related to the larger core. You can see the eye somewhat on visible imagery. With a larger core, that means there's just that much more air to evacuate at the center.

https://i.imgur.com/oVb2aQr.png

https://i.imgur.com/0SKR2ye.png

I’m assuming there’s enough time for the eye to clear out before landfall, which might not be until 12-18z tomorrow. I doubt it will exceed 120 kt at this rate.

[Highteeld]

Radar shows somewhat open eye wall to the east, but that might be beam attenuation. Cloud tops are very strong on that side.