Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Cerlin]

Final December outlook issued yesterday by CPC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKt7rMKW4AE8XPk?format=jpg&name=small

Not ideal to say the least.

[Brent]

Final December outlook issued yesterday by CPC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKt7rMKW4AE8XPk?format=jpg&name=small

above average temps?

The first half is certainly looking that way at least

The better pattern keeps getting delayed

[EnnisTx]

Welcome to Meteorological Winter!

With meteorological winter now officially upon here and fall thread subsequently closing, I’m going to buck the trends of naysayers and go all in on DFW winter 19/20.

For every inch of snow recorded at my house this winter (and I’ll throw in Spring for fun) I’ll donate $10 to storm2k for the inevitable fun I will have on here, no limit. I’ll even count sleet just because I love winter weather.

Just a few years back (ok maybe a couple more) that would be 200 bucks. I think the drought ends this year and we return to a snowy pattern. Let’s have some fun shall we?!?!?!

Come on now, don't be scared. Go all out and up that to $100 bucks per inch....

[hamburgerman7070]

I think December's are usually warm in weak niños and neutral patterns. I think the million dollar question is when does the mjo emerge in the colder phases for us, if at all? Not sure even about a timeline. I want a pattern that is setup for cold and snow. Its fun to track systems in our area.

[harp]

I think December's are usually warm in weak niños and neutral patterns. I think the million dollar question is when does the mjo emerge in the colder phases for us, if at all? Not sure even about a timeline. I want a pattern that is setup for cold and snow. Its fun to track systems in our area.

Well, you would think this pattern can't last forever. Something has to give. The question is, when?

[Brent]

I think December's are usually warm in weak niños and neutral patterns. I think the million dollar question is when does the mjo emerge in the colder phases for us, if at all? Not sure even about a timeline. I want a pattern that is setup for cold and snow. Its fun to track systems in our area.

Well, you would think this pattern can't last forever. Something has to give. The question is, when?

To be fair I've been here since 2014 and have yet to see any snow in December

I know our best month is February but I hope we're not waiting and then it yet again doesn't happen and well it's practically spring

[Quixotic]

I think December's are usually warm in weak niños and neutral patterns. I think the million dollar question is when does the mjo emerge in the colder phases for us, if at all? Not sure even about a timeline. I want a pattern that is setup for cold and snow. Its fun to track systems in our area.

Well, you would think this pattern can't last forever. Something has to give. The question is, when?

To be fair I've been here since 2014 and have yet to see any snow in December

I know our best month is February but I hope we're not waiting and then it yet again doesn't happen and well it's practically spring

2000, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013 are the most recent I can recall. Might not be an official one but we had December events locally those years.

[Cerlin]

I mean we’re due right? It’s gotta happen soon right? There’s no way we can have another snowless winter...right...?

In all seriousness, the first two weeks of December being mild don’t stress me out and, thankfully, it doesn’t look warm like it has in years prior. I keep thinking of December 11-14th as a turning point for us as our source region looks cold and some arctic shots are starting to come through more often on the long range models. The ridge that is setting itself up is being broken down by around that time and allowing some troughs to make its way towards us. This doesn’t mean anything right now and I could be reading this all wrong as I know next to nothing, but I’m not worried yet.

And hey, hopefully we can get a nice bowling ball low mixed in with some chilly temperatures to bring a winter wonderland to all of Texas in the final weeks of the decade!

[Brent]

I mean we’re due right? It’s gotta happen soon right? There’s no way we can have another snowless winter...right...?

In all seriousness, the first two weeks of December being mild don’t stress me out and, thankfully, it doesn’t look warm like it has in years prior. I keep thinking of December 11-14th as a turning point for us as our source region looks cold and some arctic shots are starting to come through more often on the long range models. The ridge that is setting itself up is being broken down by around that time and allowing some troughs to make its way towards us. This doesn’t mean anything right now and I could be reading this all wrong as I know next to nothing, but I’m not worried yet.

And hey, hopefully we can get a nice bowling ball low mixed in with some chilly temperatures to bring a winter wonderland to all of Texas in the final weeks of the decade!

I would like to think we're due but we were due last year... and the year before. It just makes me want to give up honestly. I hope we can break the trend and have a good winter but I'll probably have to see it to believe it after so many signs and setups failed before. I'm tired of having to go on vacation to see snow too, been thinking seriously about moving more north next year.

[Cerlin]

I mean we’re due right? It’s gotta happen soon right? There’s no way we can have another snowless winter...right...?

In all seriousness, the first two weeks of December being mild don’t stress me out and, thankfully, it doesn’t look warm like it has in years prior. I keep thinking of December 11-14th as a turning point for us as our source region looks cold and some arctic shots are starting to come through more often on the long range models. The ridge that is setting itself up is being broken down by around that time and allowing some troughs to make its way towards us. This doesn’t mean anything right now and I could be reading this all wrong as I know next to nothing, but I’m not worried yet.

And hey, hopefully we can get a nice bowling ball low mixed in with some chilly temperatures to bring a winter wonderland to all of Texas in the final weeks of the decade!

I would like to think we're due but we were due last year... and the year before. It just makes me want to give up honestly. I hope we can break the trend and have a good winter but I'll probably have to see it to believe it after so many signs and setups failed before. I'm tired of having to go on vacation to see snow too, been thinking seriously about moving more north next year.

Yeah, it’s so defeating. I’ve all but given up on looking at any outlooks and long range forecasts this year. I don’t trust anything!

[CaptinCrunch]

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
2nd of December 2019

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across
much of the Pacific Ocean. The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with ENSO-neutral.
ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance).*

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 - 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 - 0.4ºC
Niño 3 - 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 - 0.4ºC


I'm not buying into any long rang forecast either, anything outside of 7 days is pure luck. With that said I expect December to be near average both in terms of Temps & Precip.

November closed out -3.1 (53.5F) monthly mean, monthly precip was -0.91" (1.80")

[rwfromkansas]

I saw flurries and a dusting while I was in Kansas, but I didn't drive to NE to see the big stuff like I dreamed about. It is already a six-hour drive up there from DFW. Couldn't bear another three hours.

Hopefully this is just a cyclical warmer period and will come back around mid-to-late December. If so, it would definitely bring some credibility to recurring cycle ideas.

[Portastorm]

We really need some rain in the Austin area. Been very dry the last few months. Unfortunately both the GFS and Euro look dry the next two weeks.

[wxman57]

I've added an additional 2000 ft to my wall along the Canadian border. Seems to be working. Still, some cool air is slipping south into Texas at times. Might have to extend my wall southward just east of the Rockies...

[Cpv17]

We really need some rain in the Austin area. Been very dry the last few months. Unfortunately both the GFS and Euro look dry the next two weeks.

The CPC has us in the below normal precipitation for the whole winter.

[gpsnowman]

I've added an additional 2000 ft to my wall along the Canadian border. Seems to be working. Still, some cool air is slipping south into Texas at times. Might have to extend my wall southward just east of the Rockies...

When 57 feels threatened he builds more wall. Perhaps his Jedi senses are picking up a pattern change in the future. Hmmmmm.

[weatherdude1108]

We really need some rain in the Austin area. Been very dry the last few months. Unfortunately both the GFS and Euro look dry the next two weeks.

I've noticed that too. We've had these drizzly/misty events that filth up the cars and do nothing for the soils. I turned on my water Saturday while it was foggy and misting/light raining because my yard soils were dry, and knowing that sunny, breezy, cool weather (evaporation) would prevail for the foreseeable future (and they prorate our water usage during the winter months starting in December for "average Winter usage" on the "sewer" portion of the bill, so I wanted to get as much water down as I could before December 1st ).

I shut my water off in October last year until late Spring because we had those regular rain events and minimal evaporation. Not that fortunate this year.

[Cpv17]

We really need some rain in the Austin area. Been very dry the last few months. Unfortunately both the GFS and Euro look dry the next two weeks.

I've noticed that too. We've had these drizzly/misty events that filth up the cars and do nothing for the soils. I turned on my water Saturday while it was foggy and misting/light raining because my yard soils were dry, and knowing that sunny, breezy, cool weather (evaporation) would prevail for the foreseeable future (and they prorate our water usage during the winter months starting in December for "average Winter usage" on the "sewer" portion of the bill, so I wanted to get as much water down as I could before December 1st ).

I shut my water off in October last year until late Spring because we had those regular rain events and minimal evaporation. Not that fortunate this year.

When it rains this time of the year, it’s usually on the light side. I’ve noticed during the months from November through February when it rains, it’s usually just mist or drizzle.

[Haris]

its rained more in Las Vegas than in Austin this past November.

Sad stat but shows the story of this fall. Terrible weather.

[harp]

Umm...you boys in Texas need to look at the 18Z GFS.....