Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

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hamburgerman7070
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#161 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:42 am

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
Brent wrote:
harp wrote:Well, the 0Z GFS is COLD around the 16th on this run. Next run may be in the 70's.


I'll believe it when I see it :spam:

I still bet the more interesting weather will be to our NE

Ive got my first fantasy snow storm for me. :grrr: :grrr:

I'm just happy its on the 0z gfs instead of 6z or 18z
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#162 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:08 am

0z GEFS still only a few good members so not great but E5 FTW lol

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#163 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:44 am

Past 7 days, i think its important to see the pattern itself and not specifics. We have a decent cold front coming about 7 days out, after that, the -EPO, low near Kamatchka Peninsula, tropical forcing, all looks to be in favorable spots for cold air coming down.

Im hoping the funk comes down around Dec 20th.

Something to note which could hurt the size of HP's coming down is the lack of sea ice in an are between here and Siberia. Will this fill in anytime soon? Ive hardly noticed a difference over the last month. The ice in this hole isnt shrinking very quickly. If you look at a map of temps overlooking the North Pole, you can clearly see it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#164 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:26 pm

Brent wrote:0z GEFS still only a few good members so not great but E5 FTW lol

https://i.ibb.co/s1hPqcc/Screenshot-20191204-000658.png


It's pretty bad when you have to hunt through model ensemble members to try and find winter weather in Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#165 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:0z GEFS still only a few good members so not great but E5 FTW lol

https://i.ibb.co/s1hPqcc/Screenshot-20191204-000658.png


It's pretty bad when you have to hunt through model ensemble members to try and find winter weather in Texas.


better to look at the ensembles than the 300 hour GFS though any day :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#166 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:41 pm

GFS Ensembles stay interesting for the weekend of the 14th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#167 Postby harp » Wed Dec 04, 2019 1:46 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:GFS Ensembles stay interesting for the weekend of the 14th.

Can you post? Thanks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#168 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:23 pm

GFS Ensemble

Image


12z Euro

Image

Still far out but the agreement is interesting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#169 Postby Cerlin » Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:31 pm

Euro also seems promising right now for that timeframe too...

EDIT: Maybe I should read the posts above me. :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#170 Postby harp » Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:47 pm

Cerlin wrote:Euro also seems promising right now for that timeframe too...

EDIT: Maybe I should read the posts above me. :P

Yes, but dry cold is a waste.....
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#171 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:49 pm

12z GEFS still only a few good members E3 FTW :double:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#172 Postby Cerlin » Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:52 pm

Brent wrote:12z GEFS still only a few good members E3 FTW :double:

https://i.ibb.co/x5pkpYB/GEFSSGP-prec-snens-384.png

I vote for #3! If only we could just cement that as fact.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#173 Postby SnowintheFalls » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:52 pm

Brent wrote:12z GEFS still only a few good members E3 FTW :double:

https://i.ibb.co/x5pkpYB/GEFSSGP-prec-snens-384.png


A couple of those look good for Wichita Falls. All aboard to fantasy land! If only
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#174 Postby Cerlin » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:57 pm

00z GFS hints at the ice storm again on the 12th but temperatures are little too warm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#175 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:00 am

Cerlin wrote:00z GFS hints at the ice storm again on the 12th but temperatures are little too warm.

By how many degrees too warm?
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#176 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:34 am

starsfan65 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:00z GFS hints at the ice storm again on the 12th but temperatures are little too warm.

By how many degrees too warm?


temps are near 50 for the best precip, as the precip ends temps drop to the mid 30s

Close but no cigar

Image

Image
Last edited by Brent on Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#177 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:41 am

Brent wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:00z GFS hints at the ice storm again on the 12th but temperatures are little too warm.

By how many degrees too warm?


temps are near 50 for the best precip, as the precip ends temps drop to the mid 30s

Close but no cigar

E17 :double:

https://i.ibb.co/YD1dK4F/GEFSSGP-prec-ptypens-210.png
We got 8 days it will change
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#178 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:49 am

The 06Z GFS run this morning really will get you all out in Texas and across the Southern Plains potentially salivating for those of you wanting wintry weather beginning within 204 hours.

A potential massive snow and ice storm on the docket, courtesy of a mammoth 1054 mb Arctic High dropping down from Saskatchewan. We are talking 7-8 days of right now for real. You all out there just may get served up from Mother Nature a smorgasbord of wintry weather next week. Happy model watching. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#179 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:43 am

northjaxpro wrote:The 06Z GFS run this morning really will get you all out in Texas and across the Southern Plains potentially salivating for those of you wanting wintry weather beginning within 204 hours.

A potential massive snow and ice storm on the docket, courtesy of a mammoth 1054 mb Arctic High dropping down from Saskatchewan. We are talking 7-8 days of right now for real. You all out there just may get served up from Mother Nature a smorgasbord of wintry weather next week. Happy model watching. :wink:

I saw that. Just need a few more runs showing consistency. Not excited yet but this could be our first big shot of the season. IF it is still there on Sunday board wide excitement will take place tracking the storm. Always fun. :cold: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#180 Postby Cerlin » Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:56 am

I’m a fan of that 6z GFS except for the random snow hole it’s trying to start over DFW again? Thankfully we’re just watching for patterns right now.
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