Texas Winter 2019-2020

[weatherdude1108]

6ZGFS run fantasy got my curiosity.

[bubba hotep]

Look to the Pacific. I'll wait for some consistency out of the GFS before doing a deep dive but my hot take this morning - The Euro and GFS look pretty similar at 00z Wednesday east of the Mississippi River but there are significant differences as you head west out into the Pacific. They differ in how they handle the wave break with the GFS developing a stronger s/w off of California. The GFS then digs it down into Mexico before ejecting a winter storm out across Texas. The Euro keeps that s/w weak and eventually sends it back out into the Pacific with a western ridge building over the top. This has all kinds of ramifications as to what eventually happens and there really is nothing we can do this morning but wait for 12z lol

Why I have a bit of hope? Back in mid-Nov the 2nd week of December was screaming winter wx potential for the Southern Plains but the models didn't seem to catch on to that. Now we have the GFS flirting with something about every 3rd run since Monday, the GEFS has had individual members just about every run showing something, and the Euro EPS has had members showing winter wx threats. So maybe just a little smoke right now?

[CaptinCrunch]

Temps across NTX will trend much cooler starting Monday of next week with a decent cold front with highs in the mid 50's & lows in the upper/mid 30's. Next weekend highs are trending down into the 40's with lows at or below freezing.

70's today, upper 50's low 60's tomorrow and Saturday, back near 70 for Sunday, Monday's high depends on the timing of cold front, if earlier then maybe low 60's, if later upper 60's but dropping into the 50's after passage.

[Ralph's Weather]

I had a couple freezes to stat off this week (28 Mon and 31 Tues). Looking forward to the return of the real cold next week though.

[dhweather]

Two meter temperature anomalies - I'm sure one of them will be right. Or maybe not, its only 10 days out.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 6zGFS Ensemble Member Temperatures for Edinburg there are several members with lows in the teens (19,17,19) and one in the mid 20s for next weekend In comparison the 0zGFS had 3 members (25,17,21) for lows next weekend. Still a ways to go and the ECMWF Ensemble are not as cold.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS is a no go. Figures lol

[Cerlin]

12z GFS isn’t bad at all, the pattern looks quite nice with the exception that it’s too east.

[starsfan65]

12z GFS isn’t bad at all, the pattern looks quite nice with the exception that it’s too east.

It will tend more west.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS isn’t bad at all, the pattern looks quite nice with the exception that it’s too east.

Look at the difference in the strength of the high just 6 hours later from the 6z to 12z lol that’s not gonna cut it.

[Cerlin]

12z GFS isn’t bad at all, the pattern looks quite nice with the exception that it’s too east.

Look at the difference in the strength of the high just 6 hours later from the 6z to 12z lol that’s not gonna cut it.

Of course, but that’s just small details, just like the actual presence of a stowstorm. This far out all we’re concerned about is if there is a high and what pattern it’s follwing and if precipitation and the troughs are consistent.

[CaptinCrunch]

Correct, details are not important till 72 hrs out. Right now we just need to see the system and which way it will slide. The pattern will change, its just a matter of when, not if.

[Cpv17]

I doubt anything will happen or come out of this. I just don’t see it. No consistency in the models and the Euro isn’t onboard with anything other than basically more of the same weather we’ve been having the past couple weeks.

[Brent]

Euro is boring at the end of the week average temps. Tuesday is coldest with 40s and rain

[TheProfessor]

My family will be driving up to DC on the 21st so I'm sure something weird will happen to make that drive a pain. I'll make sure we're prepared in case we get stranded though.

[CaptinCrunch]

Euro is boring at the end of the week average temps. Tuesday is coldest with 40s and rain

Average is better than above average, and we need to keep the at least average streak going as we head toward the start of the actual Winter season.

Starting Tuesday, we will see temperatures well below
climatological normals as CAA commences. Temperatures are likely
to be at least 10 degrees below seasonal averages. Fortunately, it
appears that any precipitation will come to an end before a bulk
of coldest air invades North and Central Texas. The ECMWF does
remain a "wet" outlier and keeps a bit more in the way of
precipitation with temperature near "freezing." Given how largely
displaced this solution is from the model consensus, I`m a little
hesitant to side with this solution. Trends will be monitored.
Mid-week and beyond, there will be a risk for additional showers
as a modest WAA regime sets up.

[Brent]

18z GFS is a no go again and it's not even close

[Cerlin]

18z GFS is a no go again and it's not even close

Idk, it just looks like it’s been pushed back to me. Still wintry weather but it’s on the 17th instead.

[Brent]

18z GFS is a no go again and it's not even close

Idk, it just looks like it’s been pushed back to me. Still wintry weather but it’s on the 17th instead.

Lol isn't it always pushed back though

[harp]

Gentlemen, if you will look at this run as a whole, you will see a few bouts of cold air coming south. There are also periods of precip. We just have to watch and see what happens. But, I like the overall pattern.