SIO: Ambali - Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

[Highteeld]

[aspen]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_03S/web/gifsBy12hr_02.gif

Now that is an excellent eyewall. It’s hard to believe just 24 hours ago, Ambali was a mere 35 kt tropical storm, and now it’s probably well on its way to Cat 5 status.

[cycloneye]

Anyone has a recent image? NRL is not working.

[aspen]

Anyone has a recent image? NRL is not working.

Dvorak and IR from 21:30z

[Nancy Smar]

TPXS11 PGTW 052133
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI)
B. 05/2045Z
C. 10.20S
D. 62.21E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T7.0/7.0/D5.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5 AND PT A 4.0 BUT ARE NOT
REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 5 NM. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RICHARDSON

[TorSkk]

TPXS11 PGTW 052133
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI)
B. 05/2045Z
C. 10.20S
D. 62.21E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T7.0/7.0/D5.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5 AND PT A 4.0 BUT ARE NOT
REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 5 NM. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RICHARDSON

impressive...

[Astromanía]

What an impressive intensification , this could be a category 5 IMO, the sad part is they probably won't called it
Edit: Models weren't bullish with this (no more than a tropical storm at peak) and now this is worth of a high end category 4, imagine what could happen with Belna that is expected to be stronger than Ambali according with models

[aspen]

Odd...the eye is cooling to single digit positive temps, yet the eyewall is looking excellent in microwave imagery with no signs of doubling up. Maybe this is an eyewall meld?

[Hayabusa]

Models significantly underestimated this system, this is a sleeper. This is better than consistently hyping the intensity only to back off at the last minute.

[Nancy Smar]

FKIO20 FMEE 060019
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20191206 /0019Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: AMBALI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/04
OBS PSN: 06/0000Z S1027 E06210
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: SSW 07KT
C: 930HPA
MAX WIND: 120KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 06/0600Z S1052 E06155
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/1200Z S1119 E06145
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/1800Z S1151 E06140
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 07/0000Z S1219 E06138
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191206 /0600

TPXS11 PGTW 060018
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI)
B. 05/2345Z
C. 10.44S
D. 62.20E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T7.0/7.0/D5.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR
BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.MET YIELDS A 3.5 AND PT A 4.0 BUT ARE
NOT REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 5 NM. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO RI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2051Z 10.25S 62.22E GPMI
05/2119Z 10.25S 62.20E AMS2
05/2120Z 10.20S 62.30E ATMS
RICHARDSON

TXXS25 KNES 060015
TCSSIO
A. 03S (AMBALI)
B. 05/2330Z
C. 10.5S
D. 62.2E
E. ONE/MET-8
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0
WITH A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 6.9 WHICH JUSTIFIES
BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...CLARK

[Grifforzer]

FKIO20 FMEE 060019

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20191206/0019Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: AMBALI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/04
OBS PSN: 06/0000Z S1027 E06210
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: SSW 07KT
C: 930HPA
MAX WIND: 120KT

Category 5 (Very Intense Tropical Cyclone) from Reunion

[mrbagyo]

Ambali went bonkers
The cyclone north of Madagascar looks ready to go bonkers as well

[aspen]

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/20191206_080001.gif

Ambali went bonkers
The cyclone north of Madagascar looks ready to go bonkers as well

I’m in shock at how active the Indian Ocean has been and that the SWIO season is already going absolutely insane.

[aspen]

FKIO20 FMEE 060019
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20191206 /0019Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: AMBALI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/04
OBS PSN: 06/0000Z S1027 E06210
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: SSW 07KT
C: 930HPA
MAX WIND: 120KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 06/0600Z S1052 E06155
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/1200Z S1119 E06145
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/1800Z S1151 E06140
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 07/0000Z S1219 E06138
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191206 /0600

TPXS11 PGTW 060018
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI)
B. 05/2345Z
C. 10.44S
D. 62.20E
E. ONE/MET8
F. T7.0/7.0/D5.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR
BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.MET YIELDS A 3.5 AND PT A 4.0 BUT ARE
NOT REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 5 NM. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO RI.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2051Z 10.25S 62.22E GPMI
05/2119Z 10.25S 62.20E AMS2
05/2120Z 10.20S 62.30E ATMS
RICHARDSON

TXXS25 KNES 060015
TCSSIO
A. 03S (AMBALI)
B. 05/2330Z
C. 10.5S
D. 62.2E
E. ONE/MET-8
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0
WITH A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 6.9 WHICH JUSTIFIES
BREAKING CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...CLARK

Is this a sign it will finally be upgraded to a Category 5?

[Nancy Smar]

Is this a sign it will finally be upgraded to a Category 5?

03S AMBALI 191206 0000 10.5S 62.2E SHEM 140 924

Yes, it is.
Ambali has been upgraded to a Category 5 finally.
Very impressive.

[wxman57]

Meteo France in La Reunion just issued their advisory. They have it at 120 kts. They're the official agency of the basin. Could be 130-135 kts, though.

[aspen]

Is this a sign it will finally be upgraded to a Category 5?

03S AMBALI 191206 0000 10.5S 62.2E SHEM 140 924

Yes, it is. Ambali has been upgraded to a Category 5 finally.
Very impressive.

Now I can forgive them for that abysmal 100 kt estimate at 18z. Better late than never, although maybe it could be a little stronger.

[Nancy Smar]

However, the windshear is rising sharply and it may have begun to weaken.

[1900hurricane]

I can positively say I've never seen a D5.0/24 hr before.

[Nancy Smar]

I can positively say I've never seen a D5.0/24 hr before.

What about Patricia?