91S INVEST 191127 1800 7.0S 55.0E SHEM 15 0
SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
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1900hurricane
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SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
This appears to be the area La Reunion is monitoring as well.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:23 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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Re: SWIO: Invest 91S
Most models develop this into a TD by tomorrow and have it make landfall in northern Madagascar by late Saturday/early Sunday. We could see a hurricane-equivalent system out of this in a few days.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Disturbance 02 (Invest 91S)
12z GFS takes this a little further west, where it misses the northern tip of Madagascar and enters a pocket of higher SSTs/OHC with a maximum potential intensity of 880-890 mbar and >150 kt. While 91S is unlikely to get close to that (the models are pretty lukewarm on intensity estimates), we could still see a moderately significant system out of this. It already seems to be a TD as of the 12z best track update.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Disturbance 02 (Invest 91S)
18z GFS is more aggressive (<970 mbar) and keeps 91S within the NW Madagascar hot spot.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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wxman57
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Re: SWIO: Depression (02S)
5Z ASCAT had 40kt winds, yet no upgrade from La Reunion. Wake up, people!
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Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
Belna may also be gearing up for a phase of RI. The CDO has become larger and much more impressive over the last 12 hours, comparable to that of Ambali before it started ERI. Microwave imagery also shows a forming eyewall as some of the experimental intensity estimations put it near 65 kt.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH022020
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH022020
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Astromanía
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Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
Due to its track and expected intensification this system is very dangerous as if the people in southeast Africa didn't have enough with that imperactive last season
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mrbagyo
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Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
This one looks ready to go off
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
Now a Cat 1 with 1-minute sustained winds of 65 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Storm
An eyewall seems to be developing: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 062140.GIF
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Severe Tropical Storm
Belma’s eye is appearing as it moves closer to the hot spot off the NW Madagascar coast. Rapid intensification could be starting soon, either today or tomorrow.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Cyclone
It’s starting now, actually. 12z best track is now up to 100 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SWIO: Belna - Tropical Cyclone
Microwave pass from a few hours ago shows a closed and very well defined eyewall: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 070910.GIF
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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