NCEP/GMB SST anomaly forecast through July 2004

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

NCEP/GMB SST anomaly forecast through July 2004

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 6:56 pm

El Niño to make a full return around 2004 IF this forecast verifies.

Image
0 likes   

rainstorm

#2 Postby rainstorm » Sat Oct 25, 2003 8:04 pm

hurricane season cancel
0 likes   

CocoaBill
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:03 am
Location: Cocoa, FL
Contact:

#3 Postby CocoaBill » Sat Oct 25, 2003 8:04 pm

Does that mean a slow hurricane season next year?
0 likes   

Anonymous

Not at all...

#4 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 25, 2003 8:06 pm

It does not mean a slow hurricane season at all. Even if it does, I remember 1992 being a slow season, oh what was that little "A" named storm that popped up? :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

Re: Not at all...

#5 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 8:44 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:It does not mean a slow hurricane season at all. Even if it does, I remember 1992 being a slow season, oh what was that little "A" named storm that popped up? :wink:


Just because an El Niño is progged doesn't mean that anyone should let there guard down next season ... the overall projected numbers will be likely reduced.

Andrew in 1992 ... El Niño year, in which the rest of the season was about as dull as watching paint dry.

Alicia in 1983 ... One of only 4 storms to develop that year and it's original origins weren't tropical to begin with in the GOM.

El Niño correlations ... generally less storms, hurricanes, and reduced potential for majors. However, just like in 1992, or 1983, or 1997 (Erika), they take the full advantage of the strengthening window to the fullest. 2002 was an interesting year. Yes, there were 12 storms, but only 4 hurricanes, and 2 majors. So the overall number of hurricanes were reduced and the number of average storm days but the overall total number of storms wasn't.
0 likes   

Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 9:23 pm

Yep. El Nino's don't mean anything. Andrew was an El Nino storm and look at the capitulation he did. Be alert even during slow seasons.
0 likes   

User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:

#7 Postby stormchazer » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:07 pm

It only takes one hurricane. Andrew was during an El Nino year.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#8 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:48 pm

stormchazer wrote:It only takes one hurricane. Andrew was during an El Nino year.


You beat me to it. That's right. It only takes one.
0 likes   

rainstorm

#9 Postby rainstorm » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:50 pm

of course, it could be like 97, or 94. the paint dried twice those seasons.
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#10 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Oct 25, 2003 11:15 pm

rainstorm wrote:of course, it could be like 97, or 94. the paint dried twice those seasons.


It should be noted in 1994 that there were Alberto and Gordon. Alberto probably didn't deserve to be retired, but it definitely receives special mention for the flooding it caused in Georgia and Alabama, killing 30 people. As for Gordon, that name should have been retired for all the damage and deaths it caused in Haiti.

Sure neither one developed into MAJOR hurricanes (heck Alberto didn't even become one ever), but 1994 definitely had those two storms as highlights.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#11 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Oct 26, 2003 12:49 am

Andrew92 wrote:
rainstorm wrote:of course, it could be like 97, or 94. the paint dried twice those seasons.


It should be noted in 1994 that there were Alberto and Gordon. Alberto probably didn't deserve to be retired, but it definitely receives special mention for the flooding it caused in Georgia and Alabama, killing 30 people. As for Gordon, that name should have been retired for all the damage and deaths it caused in Haiti.

Sure neither one developed into MAJOR hurricanes (heck Alberto didn't even become one ever), but 1994 definitely had those two storms as highlights.

-Andrew92


Alberto in 1994 was the first tropical storm in history to record over a billion dollars in damage. Very severe flooding in GA/AL. Definitely could have been considered for retirement.

SF
0 likes   

rainstorm

#12 Postby rainstorm » Sun Oct 26, 2003 7:54 am

but both were very dead seasons. with so many double digit seasons in a row, we are likely to see little activity next season if this verifies
0 likes   

rainstorm

#13 Postby rainstorm » Sun Oct 26, 2003 8:14 am

good news. while you cant totally write off a rare rogue storm like andrew, a strong el nino would make it much more likely that we will have 5 seasons in a row without a major cane hit in the us
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], islandgirl45, LemieT, Pelicane, riapal, South Texas Storms, Stratton23, TheBurn, TomballEd, wzrgirl1 and 160 guests