Texas Winter 2019-2020

[gpsnowman]

Regarding the event tomorrow morning, I am not discounting anything until the precip ends. But I won't be disappointed if snow does not fall. I'm just happy December weather will return with some needed rain. This is a good thing.

[CaptinCrunch]

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I am just simply stunned the trend is bad as we get close. Oh, actually that's expected. lol

Different weather setup but the day we had the epic 12 inch snowfall in 2010 was only predicted by a few people on the fringes on the forum. Weather service was still saying accumulations were expected to be an inch after 6 inches of snow had already fallen in portions of DFW. I don’t believe temperatures ever went below freezing during that event. That’s how easy it is to predict snow in dfw, lol.

[Brent]

The euro is still hyped especially about the northern and western metro



However it looks like it's cutting it real close

[Ntxw]

It's about nowcast time. Best to look at temp profiles upstream, movement of front, and upper forcing to the west.

In reality, nothing was expected with talk of this front a week ago, so anything is overachieving. If nothing falls it is just about what we thought a week ago!

[Ralph's Weather]

A lot of the Euro enseblemembers actually focus just south of the I20/I30 corridor.

[gpsnowman]

My alarm goes off at 3:20 in the morning. I'll post an early update on whatever is falling from the sky and temp.

[TheProfessor]

Well the end of the 6z GFS would make me a happy man(I'll be up in DC for Christmas). Unfortunately that's 384 hours out so as you would expect the 12z run is different showing rain lol. I will say, if it's not going to snow on Christmas, I enjoy a nice cold rain instead of dry weather.

[TropicalTundra]

How anyone taken a look at the Canadian model at hour 240?

[orangeblood]

Short range guidance now trending towards the Euro suite...chances increasing for a possible quick burst of 1-2 inches snow on grassy surfaces and roof tops across portions of DFW tomorrow morning.

As a regretful reminder, DFW is currently in a 1740 day snowless streak ( > .1 inches) going back to March 5, 2015. Would be a nice early Christmas present to finally break that miserable streak!

[WacoWx]

Its not going to snow tomorrow on my way to work in Las Colinas. Guaranteed. (trying reverse psychology on mother nature).

[WeatherNewbie]

It's about nowcast time. Best to look at temp profiles upstream, movement of front, and upper forcing to the west.

In reality, nothing was expected with talk of this front a week ago, so anything is overachieving. If nothing falls it is just about what we thought a week ago!

at work, so i can't check. how are temps running compared to forecast?

[CaptinCrunch]

Front is thru DT FTW now, temp dropped 10 degrees with the shift.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

It's about nowcast time. Best to look at temp profiles upstream, movement of front, and upper forcing to the west.

In reality, nothing was expected with talk of this front a week ago, so anything is overachieving. If nothing falls it is just about what we thought a week ago!

at work, so i can't check. how are temps running compared to forecast?

Temperatures falling about two hours ahead of this morning’s nws forecast in n. Fort Worth. Okc already at 37, Davis, Ok at 52 right now

[Brent]

Short range guidance now trending towards the Euro suite...chances increasing for a possible quick burst of 1-2 inches snow on grassy surfaces and roof tops across portions of DFW tomorrow morning.

As a regretful reminder, DFW is currently in a 1740 day snowless streak ( > .1 inches) going back to March 5, 2015. Would be a nice early Christmas present to finally break that miserable streak!

What short range guidance looks good?

Nam still is unimpressed

[orangeblood]

Short range guidance now trending towards the Euro suite...chances increasing for a possible quick burst of 1-2 inches snow on grassy surfaces and roof tops across portions of DFW tomorrow morning.

As a regretful reminder, DFW is currently in a 1740 day snowless streak ( > .1 inches) going back to March 5, 2015. Would be a nice early Christmas present to finally break that miserable streak!

What short range guidance looks good?

Nam still is unimpressed

SREF and NAM is coming around. NAM sounding showing almost the entire column below freezing and saturated up to 450 hPA between 12Z-17Z

[weatherdude1108]

Temps over the next eight days to four weeks are above normal, but precipitation also appears to be normal to above normal for the most part, per the CPC. But I, too, don't trust any forecast beyond a few days.lol

I'm dry, so I need the rain more than cold, but both rain and cold is ideal.

[Haris]

I think we should look at Kuchera rather than 10:1. I don’t think ratios will be great with marginal air temps unless it thumps

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Through Tuesday/

Only some minor adjustments were made to the previous short term
forecast regarding the Tuesday morning snow potential. The main
takeaways remain the same: Rain will eventually become mixed with
or transition completely to snow Tuesday morning across select
portions of North Texas, perhaps resulting in some minor
accumulations on grassy or elevated surfaces. Very little in the
way of travel impacts are expected due to surface temperatures
remaining near or above freezing. Due to limited potential for
accumulations and impacts, no winter headlines are planned at this
time. For the remainder of the forecast area, only a cold rain is
expected.

Our strong cold front is presently moving through the area on
schedule, and will clear the CWA to the southeast later today.
Strong cold advection will continue overnight, sending
temperatures into the 30s and lower 40s after midnight. The plume
of mid-level moisture spreading eastward behind the front will
continue to result in top-down saturation, and rain will
eventually be capable of reaching the surface by this evening.
This frontogenetically-induced band of precipitation will be
aided by strong synoptic ascent from both DCVA accompanying a
dynamic upper trough and our proximity to the right entrance
region of an upper jet streak.

Essentially all guidance is suggesting low-level thermal profiles
will eventually become cold enough to allow for a rain-snow mix or
complete transition to snow to occur across parts of North Texas
roughly between 3AM and 10AM. Profiles should approach their wet
bulb temperature as low-level saturation occurs, while both
adiabatic lift and cold advection cool the rest of the column.
Some model profiles are actually depicting some textbook heavy
snow soundings, with saturation to -20C, steep lapse rates in the
dendritic growth zone, and an isothermal layer near 0 to +1C
through the lowest ~2km. This could allow for some bursts of
heavy wet snowfall roughly in areas north of I-20 and west of
I-35. Should this occur, a quick couple inches of snow could
accumulate on the grass in these areas, although this would likely
be an isolated occurrence. Overall, am only expecting a brief
window of snow potential of a couple hours at any given location,
as the overlap between sufficiently cold air, lift, and moisture
will only occur over a small swath at any given time. Our main
areas of concern are generally from the Cisco/Stephenville area
northeastward towards Denton, which may spend the longest
residence time beneath a band of snow. This would be the main
location that some 1-3" totals could potentially occur on grassy
surfaces. In addition, I can`t completely rule out the occurrence
of thunder as the coldest mid-level temperatures become situated
overhead. Mid-level lapse rates could actually approach 7-8 C/km
during this time which may briefly enhance precipitation rates.

Uncertainties and alternate scenarios include a "reasonable worst
case" of a multi-inch snow total somewhere west of the Metroplex
should all the previously-discussed ingredients come together and
persist for a few hours. On the other hand, a bust potential does
exist in terms of low-level temperatures remaining slightly too
warm for a full transition to snow to occur, in which case a mix
would be the extent of observed winter weather with essentially
no accumulations. This all basically depends on about 1 degree
Celsius difference between 900-850mb. We`ve maintained a most-
likely scenario depiction in the official forecast which consists
of minimal accumulations across a majority of North Texas and
perhaps some accumulations of up to an inch west of the Metroplex.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I really hope you guys get some action tomorrow am. One thing i will say, the temps typically come in colder, that is really going to work in your favor here, if so. I'd expect it to come down fairly heavy, too. Precip column looks fairly moist. Best of luck to you all! Be good for you guys to end the snowless streak so we can focus on getting some in SE Tx for Christmas time!