Texas Winter 2019-2020

[South Texas Storms]

Beyond that huge rain event for Christmas but it is rain outside of the Panhandle the pattern is very active though

Yeah but I don't like how inactive the ensembles are...gives me pause to the operational GFS showing an active pattern.

The latest GFS, Canadian, and Euro ensembles have below normal rainfall across the state over the next 2 weeks, with most areas seeing less than 1 inch.

[hamburgerman7070]

Beyond that huge rain event for Christmas but it is rain outside of the Panhandle the pattern is very active though

Yeah but I don't like how inactive the ensembles are...gives me pause to the operational GFS showing an active pattern.

The latest GFS, Canadian, and Euro ensembles have below normal rainfall across the state over the next 2 weeks, with most areas seeing less than 1 inch.

If the pna is trending neutral to negative, then an active pattern should continue or crank up imo.

[weatherdude1108]

Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png

This one is save worthy

That's every state except Florida with at least 6 inches of frozen precip

An Ice Age is coming!!

[Haris]

Heavy snow tonight across the portions Deep South ... again...

[Brent]

Heavy snow tonight across the portions Deep South ... again...

What else is new

I don't get how we continue to be so unlucky

[Brent]

0z GFS continues to trend warmer all rain for the day 10 storm

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1+2 region is cooling down, got something going for us!

Edit: For fun and educational purposes, check out the high at 384. It's very interesting how these massive highs form. That guy would bring some fun for us.

[orangeblood]

Outside of an occasionally 1 day cold shot, the Ensembles are looking really warm leading up to Christmas with a big Central US ridge popping up

[wxman57]

I prepared a test for you guys. Below is a comparison between the last 4 runs of the GFS, all valid 6pm Friday, Dec. 20th. Can any of you spot any differences? I think you might, if you look REALLY hard...

[bubba hotep]

1+2 region is cooling down, got something going for us!

Edit: For fun and educational purposes, check out the high at 384. It's very interesting how these massive highs form. That guy would bring some fun for us.

The IOD is also relaxing. Will there be an atmospheric hangover or will we see some benefits in Jan & Feb from current changes in the Pacific?

[wxman57]

GFS is forecasting a sudden tropospheric warming event two days before Christmas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Heavy snow tonight across the portions Deep South ... again...

What else is new

I don't get how we continue to be so unlucky

THis week we ended up with a significantly stronger +PNA than forecasted. The PNA is forecasted to go - after mid month but we will see if that happens. The NAO looks to trend back down towards = also, with the AO going -. The issue is the EPO has ben - but it looks to trend + so that may shut off the cold shots. Now that we are in winter a good -PNA SW upper low can still produce snow with a +EPO though as long as it stays closed off.

[dhweather]

wxman57, in his best Bing Crosby voice..... I'm dreaming of a warmmmmmmmmmmmm Christmasssssssss

[dhweather]

This is in la la land, but its interesting. As the trough moves in to the western US, watch this ridge build over far northern Europe.

[harp]

Look at the mother load coming down at the end of the 06Z GFS.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Look at the mother load coming down at the end of the 06Z GFS.

If you paid attention in November, and you saw Halong drop that latent heat bomb in the GOA, you had to think that at some point in late December or January, there was going to be a frigid spell.

It makes sense the pattern relaxed, but the ingredients are coming together in the long range for a huge dump of Arctic air. If that coincides with a -PNA and -NAO, we could be looking at several opportunities of Winter Weather as the month ends and 2020 kicks off.

[Snowman67]

I prepared a test for you guys. Below is a comparison between the last 4 runs of the GFS, all valid 6pm Friday, Dec. 20th. Can any of you spot any differences? I think you might, if you look REALLY hard...

http://wxman57.com/images/gfs.JPG

Well of course the 12Z is the most accurate of the four

[wxman57]

There is still a good chance of snow on Saturday afternoon, evening - for me. I'll be at my sister-in-law's Christmas party in Woodstock, IL Fri-Sun. Woodstock is where the movie "Groundhog Day" was filmed. We're staying at the Cherry Tree Inn, the house from the movie where Bill Murray stayed. We're going to be in the same room featured in the movie that overlooks the front yard (Magnolia room). Setting my phone alarm to the same segment of "I Got You, Babe" that played in the movie.

https://cherrytreeinnbnb.com/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

There is still a good chance of snow on Saturday afternoon, evening - for me. I'll be at my sister-in-law's Christmas party in Woodstock, IL Fri-Sun. Woodstock is where the movie "Groundhog Day" was filmed. We're staying at the Cherry Tree Inn, the house from the movie where Bill Murray stayed. We're going to be in the same room featured in the movie that overlooks the front yard (Magnolia room). Setting my phone alarm to the same segment of "I Got You, Babe" that played in the movie.

https://cherrytreeinnbnb.com/

I hope the snow "pukes" on you, buddy!

[gpsnowman]

There is still a good chance of snow on Saturday afternoon, evening - for me. I'll be at my sister-in-law's Christmas party in Woodstock, IL Fri-Sun. Woodstock is where the movie "Groundhog Day" was filmed. We're staying at the Cherry Tree Inn, the house from the movie where Bill Murray stayed. We're going to be in the same room featured in the movie that overlooks the front yard (Magnolia room). Setting my phone alarm to the same segment of "I Got You, Babe" that played in the movie.

https://cherrytreeinnbnb.com/

You, being a snow hating heat lover, are not allowed to experience any snow unless it is in Houston!!!