Texas Winter 2019-2020

[wxman57]

There is still a good chance of snow on Saturday afternoon, evening - for me. I'll be at my sister-in-law's Christmas party in Woodstock, IL Fri-Sun. Woodstock is where the movie "Groundhog Day" was filmed. We're staying at the Cherry Tree Inn, the house from the movie where Bill Murray stayed. We're going to be in the same room featured in the movie that overlooks the front yard (Magnolia room). Setting my phone alarm to the same segment of "I Got You, Babe" that played in the movie.

https://cherrytreeinnbnb.com/

You, being a snow hating heat lover, are not allowed to experience any snow unless it is in Houston!!!

Hang on a second there, buddy. I never said I hate snow. I only hate cold weather. Snow is good to visit once in a while. It's the only reason to ever have temps below 80 degrees. Speaking of which, looks like I may see a little heavier snow Saturday afternoon/evening up in Woodstock. Meanwhile, looking at the current 12Z GFS run, it appears it was "just kidding" with yesterday's 12Z run.

[gpsnowman]

There is still a good chance of snow on Saturday afternoon, evening - for me. I'll be at my sister-in-law's Christmas party in Woodstock, IL Fri-Sun. Woodstock is where the movie "Groundhog Day" was filmed. We're staying at the Cherry Tree Inn, the house from the movie where Bill Murray stayed. We're going to be in the same room featured in the movie that overlooks the front yard (Magnolia room). Setting my phone alarm to the same segment of "I Got You, Babe" that played in the movie.

https://cherrytreeinnbnb.com/

You, being a snow hating heat lover, are not allowed to experience any snow unless it is in Houston!!!

Hang on a second there, buddy. I never said I hate snow. I only hate cold weather. Snow is good to visit once in a while. It's the only reason to ever have temps below 80 degrees. Speaking of which, looks like I may see a little heavier snow Saturday afternoon/evening up in Woodstock. Meanwhile, looking at the current 12Z GFS run, it appears it was "just kidding" with yesterday's 12Z run.

Haha I know you enjoy some snow. I am just jealous, that's all. I admit. There I said it!!!!

[wxman57]

Haha I know you enjoy some snow. I am just jealous, that's all. I admit. There I said it!!!!

I already told South Texas Storms that I'd bring him some snow back. You can have some snow, too. I'll put it in a plastic bottle before I leave...

[Haris]

Haha I know you enjoy some snow. I am just jealous, that's all. I admit. There I said it!!!!

I already told South Texas Storms that I'd bring him some snow back. You can have some snow, too. I'll put it in a plastic bottle before I leave...

How kind and generous of you

[rwfromkansas]

I thought at least I might see leftover snow in Kansas or something for Christmas. But looks to torch.

[Brent]

I thought at least I might see leftover snow in Kansas or something for Christmas. But looks to torch.

Yuck what happened to the pattern?

[Cpv17]

I thought at least I might see leftover snow in Kansas or something for Christmas. But looks to torch.

Yuck what happened to the pattern?

https://i.ibb.co/30794NW/814temp-new.gif

It’s so frustrating.

[Brent]

I thought at least I might see leftover snow in Kansas or something for Christmas. But looks to torch.

Yuck what happened to the pattern?

https://i.ibb.co/30794NW/814temp-new.gif

It’s so frustrating.

the pattern always looks good 10-14 days out and then its all downhill

[gpsnowman]

I do not want another warm and humid Christmas. This is getting ugly. Red from Mexico to South Dakota. IDK, the map looks fishy with 95% of the lower 48 above normal in late December but stranger things have happened. Hopefully it will change.

[TropicalTundra]

I am seriously starting to hate this weather pattern. The temperature swings are giving me a headache and I just want to see some cold weather for once

[harp]

Well, the latest several runs of the GFS certainly don't show a heat wave, so, I dunno....

[bubba hotep]

I thought at least I might see leftover snow in Kansas or something for Christmas. But looks to torch.

Yuck what happened to the pattern?

https://i.ibb.co/30794NW/814temp-new.gif

Hard to argue against that when the D10 EPS looks like this...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That time period really isn’t warm, but with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s and low 60s it is a bit above average.

Ridge does look to set up in the GOA the 26th/27th ... again, the pattern will flip (I’m sure of it), the question is when? The last week of December? The first week of January?

[bubba hotep]

**RED ALERT** The 00z GFS is trying, it's trying lol

[Brent]

**RED ALERT** The 00z GFS is trying, it's trying lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_37.png

plenty of snow east of us sounds about right

the Euro isn't that warm or cold but is near average at the end of the run

[orangeblood]

That time period really isn’t warm, but with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s and low 60s it is a bit above average.

Ridge does look to set up in the GOA the 26th/27th ... again, the pattern will flip (I’m sure of it), the question is when? The last week of December? The first week of January?

Yep, I think this is just a brief lull in the pattern (right before and during Christmas) as the seasonal jet transitions into it's winter phase. The warm blob in the Gulf of Alaska is something you cannot ignore, the ridge will pop and stick more consistently, then the fun begins!

Also, the Indian Ocean looks completely different than it did last year which played a big part in the warm January

[TropicalTundra]

Once we’re done talking about this “ice storm”, We have another event coming in early January

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I am seriously starting to hate this weather pattern. The temperature swings are giving me a headache and I just want to see some cold weather for once

Last year at this time the models were showing potential big snow events regularly and it was cold. I’m good with the setup myself, no model watching at Christmas time. Maybe this pattern will reverse the horrible pattern we had after Christmas last year.

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't get alarmed with the CPC maps, we are not going to see 80 degree temps, we will however be in a slightly above average range, and that's ok. It's not like we didn't expect the usual December warm spell especially after a cooler than average November. The pattern will transition back to a colder outlook, the question will be storm tracks and ample moisture returns. I'm still very much on board with an active pattern returning around the holidays and heading into January.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Don't get alarmed with the CPC maps, we are not going to see 80 degree temps, we will however be in a slightly above average range, and that's ok. It's not like we didn't expect the usual December warm spell especially after a cooler than average November. The pattern will transition back to a colder outlook, the question will be storm tracks and ample moisture returns. I'm still very much on board with an active pattern returning around the holidays and heading into January.

Yeah, we aren't looking at a torch. The slightly warmer than average is coming from the low temps, not the high temps. What I find funny (and sad) is that the forecasts keep showing cool highs, even up through the 24th, then Christmas Day the lows are in the 60s and highs in the 60s (near 70 south), then a front blows through early morning 26th and gets very chilly right after Christmas. The GFS has been very consistent showing this.

All of this is a ways out, so that front could come on Christmas day.