SPAC: INVEST 97P

[Nancy Smar]

97P INVEST 191218 0600 15.0S 170.0W SHEM 15 1010

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S
169.0W AT 192100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
VIS IMAGERY.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC AND
REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 7OOHPA.
THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.