WPAC: INVEST 97W

[Nancy Smar]

97W INVEST 191217 0600 4.0N 138.0E WPAC 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

A weak circulation within the trough near 4N138E will shift
generally W or WNW the next few days and could bring showers closer
to Koror on Thursday or Friday. GFS shows some development with this
circulation, but significant development is not expected before
passing by Koror. Drier weather will persist farther north and
across Yap the next couple days, with the exception of clusters of
trade wind showers that could bring shower coverage to scattered at
times.

[Hayabusa]

Possible double development?

[aspen]

Could this be the final hurrah of the 2019 WPac season?

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZDEC2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N
136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OVERCAST. A 180016Z MHS
METOP-A 89 GHZ SHOWS A LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH SMALL
POCKETS OF CONVECTION. A 180016Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS UNDER CONVECTION. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING, LIKELY REACHING WARNING
THRESHOLD
NEAR THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS OR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[doomhaMwx]

This may become a tropical depression as it approaches the southern Philippines, but it appears that any significant/notable development won't occur until it arrives at the Sulu Sea or South China Sea.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 190600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 135E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 201400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/201400Z-210600ZDEC2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 135.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[doomhaMwx]

97W INVEST 191221 0000 4.2N 132.3E WPAC 15 1010