Texas Winter 2019-2020

[wxman57]

Nice to see that the extended range GFS is going with pleasantly above-normal temps across much of the U.S. to start the new year. Lots of pretty red colors on the map. Now, if we could only get the cold air now over Texas to move on out by early next week as the models indicate...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Nice to see that the extended range GFS is going with pleasantly above-normal temps across much of the U.S. to start the new year. Lots of pretty red colors on the map. Now, if we could only get the cold air now over Texas to move on out by early next week as the models indicate...

http://wxman57.com/images/gfsanom.png

I'll be in Showlow, AZ for new years. So perfect! Last year we saw 22" of snow.

31F in Sugar Land this am. Colder southwest again, this is possibly due to the high being down there.

Ready for the January we've all dreamed about.

[dhweather]

Well, at this rate, those Winter Cancel posts aren't too far off from popping up.

[Haris]

[Portastorm]

Nice to see that the extended range GFS is going with pleasantly above-normal temps across much of the U.S. to start the new year. Lots of pretty red colors on the map. Now, if we could only get the cold air now over Texas to move on out by early next week as the models indicate...

You're a mean one, Wxman57
You really are a heel
You're as cuddly as a cactus, you're as charming as an eel, Wxman57
You're a bad banana with a greasy black peel!

[wxman57]

Nice to see that the extended range GFS is going with pleasantly above-normal temps across much of the U.S. to start the new year. Lots of pretty red colors on the map. Now, if we could only get the cold air now over Texas to move on out by early next week as the models indicate...

You're a mean one, Wxman57
You really are a heel
You're as cuddly as a cactus, you're as charming as an eel, Wxman57
You're a bad banana with a greasy black peel!

Merry Christmas to you, too, Portastorm! Hey, at least you got some freezing temps there this morning.

[Snowman67]

27F yesterday at Hooks airport in tomball. 28F this morning. Weatherman 57's kind of weather

[Texas Snowman]

You're a bad banana with a greasy black peel!

Portastorm, personally, I’d choose the greasy black banana peel. At least it wouldn’t show a Euro map one day, a GFS map the next, and then argue with people every year about what constitutes the geographical boundaries of North and East Texas.

[orangeblood]

Panhandle Hookers for weeks on the model horizon!

[Ralph's Weather]

he -EPO will be fair persistent though somewhat transient. The real issue is we cannot seem to get a real -/=PNA pattern. Though we can still get lucky and get a shortwave to break off from the main flow, but as we see this weekend the system has to do it all on its own without a cold air source.

[Brent]

Panhandle Hookers for weeks on the model horizon!

Zero GEFS members with snow

Such a pattern

[orangeblood]

Panhandle Hookers for weeks on the model horizon!

Zero GEFS members with snow

Such a pattern

Need something to cattle prod this pattern/MJO...not sure if/when that'll happen

[Haris]

A solid 1/2” - 2” of rainfal looking likely now Fri PM across SCTX per latest 12z GFS NAM and earlier Euro. Thatd be a great start to the holidays. Bring it on

This aged well.

[CaptinCrunch]

I haven't see a drop of rain so far, just cloudy and chilly.


Today (Friday 12/20) is the 90th Anniversary of the Historic Texas Snowstorm. To this date...Hillsboro still holds the state record for the 24-hour maximum snowfall accumulation reported on December 20-21, 1929. Thunder and lightning accompanied heavy snow. Most of the Dallas and Fort Worth area reported a trace of snow during this event.

[weatherdude1108]

Drizzly hear with limited visibility. Nothing beneficial.

Fog and drizzle capital of the world now.

[bubba hotep]

I continue to be encouraged by the signs that we will see an improving pattern as we head into January. IOD weakening, ENSO moving back positive with warmth west based, an active Pacific wave train emerging (SOI has been negative lately - where is Ntxw?), possible SSW event??, etc. It was obvious back in late November that December would be tough going but I thought we might get a chance at winter weather around mid-month. Now we shift the focus to January and we'll probably see things shift wetter before they shift colder but need some overlap.

[harp]

I continue to be encouraged by the signs that we will see an improving pattern as we head into January. IOD weakening, ENSO moving back positive with warmth west based, an active Pacific wave train emerging (SOI has been negative lately - where is Ntxw?), possible SSW event??, etc. It was obvious back in late November that December would be tough going but I thought we might get a chance at winter weather around mid-month. Now we shift the focus to January and we'll probably see things shift wetter before they shift colder but need some overlap.

Well, that's the most positive thing I've seen on this forum for quite a while. Keep us posted. Thanks.

[Brent]

I continue to be encouraged by the signs that we will see an improving pattern as we head into January. IOD weakening, ENSO moving back positive with warmth west based, an active Pacific wave train emerging (SOI has been negative lately - where is Ntxw?), possible SSW event??, etc. It was obvious back in late November that December would be tough going but I thought we might get a chance at winter weather around mid-month. Now we shift the focus to January and we'll probably see things shift wetter before they shift colder but need some overlap.

I hope you're right but I'll believe it when I see it

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

A change in the weather pattern is forecast to take shape next Thursday and Friday when a large trough of low pressure pushes east out of northern Mexico. Moisture returning head of the trough is expected to cause a slight chance for rain showers Thursday, with a better chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring Friday into Friday night. Rain amounts with this system are not expected to be all that heavy, with most totals averaging between a quarter and a half inch. High temperatures Thursday and Friday look to be in the mid and upper 60s. Lows will be around 50 degrees. Dry and slightly cooler weather is forecast for next weekend, with highs in the low and mid-60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Extended-range forecasts call for mostly sunny and dry weather on the 30th, continuing through New Year's Day, with highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s. As of now, the forecasts don't call for arctic air moving into Central Texas through New Year's Day.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[Parker_County1]

I have NO education or training in weather forecasting. Just have lived in TX a long time, and have an obsession with weather as many of us here do.

What do you think are the chances that someplace in north Texas could see some ice pellets or snowflakes mix in with the rain tonight or tomorrow morning?

It is raining lightly and the temperature is steadily dropping here in Weatherford. I think the official NWS grids show 0% chance of rain for here! They do call for drizzle, but this is NOT drizzle.