Florida Weather

[SFLcane]

00Z guidance suggests there may be a secondary surface low that forms over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday evening and then shifts northeastward across the FL Peninsula to the western Atlantic by early Monday morning. If this occurs, low-level flow may become locally enhanced across southern FL, with perhaps a somewhat greater severe risk across this region given the slightly more buoyant.

[StormingB81]

I’m kind of surprised I was thinking the marginal would basically be from I-4 down.

[HurricaneBelle]

This AFD outta TBW can be summed up in one emoji: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN AS
HAS BEEN FORECAST THE THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THE NBM AND 12Z GFS HAVE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. EVERY MODEL
AGREES THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE NORTHEAST GOM. THIS
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO CLOSE ENOUGH TO GALE FORCE THAT IT WOULD BE
LOGICAL THAT THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE. I WILL
ISSUE A GALE WARNING TO THE WATERS BETWEEN 20 AND 60 MILES FROM
VENICE NORTHWARD. NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON THE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GOM SOUTHWEST OF SANIBEL AND WEST OF FLORIDA BAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST COAST ALL
DAY SO I WILL UP THE POPS FOR OVERNIGHT THERE. SOMEWHERE THERE WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN, MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF WHERE IS LOW. THE 12Z GFS HAS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT, NOT SOMETHING WE FORECAST OFTEN AROUND HERE
STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND A LOT
OF OVERRUNNING OVER THE FRONT. THIS BRINGS THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT I WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH QUICKLY DISAPPEARS OVER LAND.

[StormingB81]

So basically some will get it some will not lol I love the somewhere there will be heavy rain lol. I’m just figuring we will need a boat soon lol

[northjaxpro]

Going to be working a bit of overtime the next couple of days it appears as this potent Low Pressure begins to start getting cranked later tonight. We have been discussing this system all week, and the Jax NWS mets put out a special weather statement highlighting all the wide range of concerns with wind, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and severe weather and hail potential on Monday as the potent 500 mb closed off mid-upper Low moves directly.over the North Florida area on Monday.

I will be very busy the next couple of days. Could you imagine if this system would had a cold, arctic air source to work with? Lol.. Man we would be looking at quite a winter storm over the Deep South. But, the pattern did not allow that to happen.and that scenario is not the case. However, there are more than enough potential problems to deal with these next 48-60 hours.

18Z GFS model run just now beginning to come out. I will check back in later...

[StormingB81]

Geez GFS has it raining into Tuesday. I’m sure flood advisors for low lying areas will go out. Gonna be a soggy mess and I won’t be surprised to see daily records for rain as well

[northjaxpro]

Geez GFS has it raining into Tuesday. I’m sure flood advisors for low lying areas will go out. Gonna be a soggy mess and I won’t be surprised to see daily records for rain as well

Yeah, the 18Z GFS does not get the strong mid-upper closed Low off the Northeast Florida coast until around 12Z Tuesday morning. So, rain and some storms will linger into early Tuesday.

Also, the 18Z GFS run sets up a solid line of rain and thunderstorms right along and just north.of the warm front boundary, which the GFS has it right near the I-4 corridor by 12Z tomorrow morning.

Potential of very heavy rainfall right along that boundary as it lifts north during tomorrow....

Wind impacts will become a greater concern as we get into late afternoon into tomorrow evening.

[StormingB81]

TWC only has about 15-20mph winds here near the space coast. Wonder if it will be more than that. We get a lot of rain and some decent gusts I wouldn’t be surprised to see some power outages.

[chaser1]

Gonna be nice "stay at home" weather and very probably will at least look rather wintery outside (minus the frozen precip LOL). As models are better converging on the genesis of this N.E. Gulf coastal low, it's appearing that the mid and low level lobes of low pressure will evolve a bit less then ideally stacked and appear to set up a bit further north then what models might have indicated several days ago. I'm just not seeing this develop as nearly a serious wind or rain event as potentially projected a few days ago. Such is often the case however. Fortunately, Cape values don't appear to suggest widespread severe WX conditions over the peninsula and with any luck a good chunk of the State will simply receive a nice healthy dose of 1" - 3" of rain. Hopefully coastal areas won't take too much of a hit from coastal erosion and regions receiving 4-6" of rain will be closer to the exception then the rule. Beyond this, I'll be curious to watch the longer range model projections regarding the threat of much colder conditions toward New Year's Day and the immediate period thereafter.

[TheStormExpert]

According to the latest GFS it looks like the timing for any strong to severe weather is late Sunday into early Monday morning as the developing low pushes off the FL Space Coast.

Look for a cool and quiet Christmas Eve morning and day followed by a cool-ish Christmas morning and warm Christmas Day.

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas for those that celebrate it!

[gatorcane]

The GFS is trending towards long-wave troughiness over the Eastern US starting around the New Year with much below normal temps. Can somebody say winter of 2009-2010? Well maybe not that cold to start Jan but could be quite cold.

[northjaxpro]

The GFS is trending towards long-wave troughiness over the Eastern US starting around the New Year with much below normal temps. Can somebody say winter of 2009-2010? Well maybe not that cold to start Jan but could be quite cold.

I have been so busy monitoring this current storm progressing over the area, I really have not been concentrating on the medium to longer range forecasts by the models.

However, I did take a quick peek and GFS is indeed potentially bringing a large and deep upper level trough to park itself across the Eastern CONUS as we get close to New Year's Eve and into the start of 2020. Also, the PNA index, taking a quick glance this morning, is also hinting at becoming positive as we approach New Year's Day as well. This would also be a key element down the road to drive potential very cold air into the Deep South and Florida as well.

We are indeed finally getting a sustained meteorological winter time - NAO, at least as we are heading into January. The key will be if we finally see the Greenland Blocking pattern set-up, which generally takes place when a - NAO occurs because if it does, it could set the stage to bring down very cold air from Siberia southward down into the Eastern North America continent as get into January. This is what to watch for now and for the next couple of weeks.

So, for those, like me, who have been wanting a shot at some real cold weather in these parts, well we may get a taste of that soon.

[northjaxpro]

1011 mb Low Pressure in NE GOM, with a cold front boundary extending south from the Low into the Eastern GOM. A warm front boundary is now over North Florida currently. It looks as if the steady and heaviest rain is setting up just north of the boundary actoss èxtreme South and Southeast GA. NWS Jax has Flood Watch up for much of the Southeast GA area now nto tomorrow. Radar and satelite imagery shows a dry slot moving in across North and Northeast Florida and will temporarily stop the steady and heavieir rain for a few hours here late morning into early afternoon.

However, as the Low Pressure area moves northeast over the Florida Panhandle area later today,.They have already received nearly 3 inches of rain over in parts of the Panhandle up through early this morning. Rain and thunderstorms will move back across all of the area, especially after 2:00, and continuing through the evening.

South Florida later today could also see strong to possible severe storms down that way as storms fire up and helecity values look decent down that way for severe storms later today, especially if any sufficient daytime heating occurs.

Wind potential concerns for later tonight and Monday, and the potential of strong thunderstorms, with potential hail across the area on Monday as well with the strong mid-upper Low moving directly across North Florida. More about this a bit later....

[NDG]

Both the Euro and GFS have struggled with the precipitation forecast with this system for today Sunday, both were showing very heavy rains for the I-4 corridor but so far the heaviest rains have stayed to our north and south. Now a dry slot is moving across our area, may not be so bad of a day after all, for at least through the early afternoon.

[NDG]

Latest ensembles forecast are showing not so fast on us saying that the NAO will go negative for New Years.



The Euro, unlike the GFS, so far is showing a warm New Years for the entire eastern US.

[boca]

I looked at the NAO and as of this morning it’s looks to stay positive thru the early part of January. I’m driving up to Orlando for Christmas and highs in the upper 70s and lows in the lower 60s can you say no cold air in sight.

[northjaxpro]

LOL i just love the GFS and EURO differences . It is always fascinating this time of the year concerning the teleconnections by the start of January.

We will see which group and its ensembles ends up being right.

BTW: I am still leaning with the GEFS and its ensembles in this case

[chaser1]

This wide reaching couple inches of rain that most of us will all receive will go a long way toward keeping things nice and green throughout the state and offer a nice immunization from any premature fire threat for weeks! Today will offer awesome "work out in the garage weather" As for early January, there's no doubt that the EURO and GFS can't both be right LOL. I'm betting on a nice cool period but nothing extreme. Think i'll prepare by buying a box of instant hot cocoa (well, if it's on sale )

[boca]

Northjaxpro,NDG and Chaser1 I’m getting bored of these mild winters I’m ready for a cold blast but the NAO only seems to tank when it doesn’t matter in the spring and summer.

[SFLcane]

Northjaxpro,NDG and Chaser1 I’m getting bored of these mild winters I’m ready for a cold blast but the NAO only seems to tank when it doesn’t matter in the spring and summer.

Forget the cold how about a rather high chance of severe wx.

https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/120 ... 15200?s=21