Florida Weather

[boca]

SFLcane you are correct and let’s see if that weather on the west coast will make it across the alley without falling apart like it usually does. I think the time frame will be late afternoon into this evening.

[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro,NDG and Chaser1 I’m getting bored of these mild winters I’m ready for a cold blast but the NAO only seems to tank when it doesn’t matter in the spring and summer.

Forget the cold how about a rather high chance of severe wx.

https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/120 ... 15200?s=21

Yeah I agree with you SFLCane. I think South Florida later today and tonight has a decent shot of seeing possible severe storms, which I touched on in an earlier post on this page.

I also think we will see potential severe storms tomorrow with the second phase of this storm system pertaining to the very strong 500mb mid-upper Closed Low, which will traverse across North Florida. The dynamics with this upper cut-off Low look very.impressive, and with such cold temperatures aloft with this feature, I would not be shocked at a to see all kinds of hail reports from storm cells that develop across the region tomorrow.

Plenty to watch today and tomorrow with this large and complex storm system , which is keeping.me plenty busy. We can definitely shelve the discussion of the potential cold weather later until after this storm system finally clears out.and away from the peninsula, hopefully by Tuesday evening.

Lots of time later on to watch how the teleconnectons will end up evolving for the next 10 days anyway...

[chaser1]

Northjaxpro,NDG and Chaser1 I’m getting bored of these mild winters I’m ready for a cold blast but the NAO only seems to tank when it doesn’t matter in the spring and summer.

Forget the cold how about a rather high chance of severe wx.

https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/120 ... 15200?s=21

Vertical shear notwithstanding, i'd say the average Miami-Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach resident stands an overall greater risk commuting on I-95 with three shopping days remaining till Christmas. That said thunder, a few reports of small hail, and radar depicted cell rotation is probably a reasonable bet.

[chaser1]

I find the GFS modeled 500 mb height rises in the higher latitudes off the U.S. Pacific Coastline starting around 220 hr.'s pretty impressive. A nice potential set-up for an over all large bowl-like trough to set up over the Eastern 2/3's of the CONUS. Ugly sweaters and smore's for all my Florida friends

[chaser1]

Nice "chunky rain" coming in to the SW coast south of Cape Coral as well as the N.E. Panhandle and spreading East & North over N. Florida. Looks like best set up for isolated strong storm cells should occur from Jax to Gainesville to roughly the Tally area.

[northjaxpro]

NWS radar showed a swath of heavy rain from line from Palm Coast west to Levy County. Rainfall estimates between 1-2 inches of rainfall occuring along this lline of rain

[psyclone]

What a shag day in terms of weather. A good reminder of how spoiled our base state is.. A large area of rain is marching onshore here and it should last for hours. As for cold....there's an analogy for the cold season that mirrors the hurricane season: it is mercifully brief. We only have about a 3 month window for legit cold to penetrate deep into florida (Dec-Feb) just like our high risk period of the hurricane season (Aug-Oct). December is to freeze season what August is to hurricane season...and we just slipped through unscathed. One third down/ 2 thirds to go...but the most dangerous period is ahead.

[gatorcane]

Good area of red and orange on the radar approaching the SW coast of Florida. Wonder if we may see some of this spread into metro South Florida later tonight?

[robbielyn]

Tornado watch for sw and se FL til 5am tomorrow. West Palm Beach Miami homestead naples and the keys!!! Please hv an alert set on your phone or use a weather radio.

[northjaxpro]

Warm front boundary has moved north into extremd South Georgia currently, and thus a large swath of rain and embedded thunderstorms cover much of South and East Central Georgia this hour. So far, I have received just over 2 inches of rainfall here at my home station and most areas of North and Northeast Florida have generally received 1-3 inches thus far. Rainfall totals from 2-4 inches have been reported up into Southeast Georgia with heavier amounts of 5 inches in spots this evening.

Currently, we are having a respite from the rain for now as the warm front has lifted north into South Georgia. Rain will return later tonight as rain snd tjunderstorms are currently mobing inland out of the GOM and moving.northeast and moving into Northeast Floruda sometime after midnight.

The second phase of this large and complex system comes tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. A very strong mid-upper closed Low will move directly across North and North Central Florida, especially tomorrow late aftermoon and continuing.through the evening. Instability will be ample and the upper dynamics with this mid-upper Low are very impressive. There is very cold air aloft with this system, and storm cells that develop may have the potential to produce hail. I am ecpected that to happen in area as that Upper Low moves through the region.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Latest ensembles forecast are showing not so fast on us saying that the NAO will go negative for New Years.

https://i.imgur.com/kfZIaSq.gif

The Euro, unlike the GFS, so far is showing a warm New Years for the entire eastern US.

https://i.imgur.com/YOM8Wwl.png

Weird. The ESRL/PSD disagrees and says the NAO tanks(though it does neutralize a couple of days after the New Year. Why does the CPC and ESRL differ?

[FlaWeatherDude]

Latest ensembles forecast are showing not so fast on us saying that the NAO will go negative for New Years.

https://i.imgur.com/kfZIaSq.gif

The Euro, unlike the GFS, so far is showing a warm New Years for the entire eastern US.

https://i.imgur.com/YOM8Wwl.png

Weird. The ESRL/PSD disagrees and says the NAO tanks(though it does neutralize a couple of days after the New Year. Why does the CPC and ESRL differ?

https://s3.amazonaws.com/33andrain/monthly_2019_12/4indices.png.ccc268c9c3a07dfb6a18495599315ae7.png

Oops wrong date.

[StormingB81]

GFS backed off the cold. So par for the course per usual lol

[northjaxpro]

I see over 7 inches of rainfall occured yesterday in Fort Lauderdale. Reports of floodng at the beach there and also in Boca Raton, where over 8 inches occured there.

Here at my home station, I hsve measured 3.75 inches so far for this event. 3-5 inches has been the general range across North and Northeast Florida up to this point for this event and more rain is on the way later this evening.

It defnitely is waterlogged in Broward County and portions of Palm Beach County in that area of the state this morning.

Now, the second phase of this system will occur beginning.late today into tonight as the strong mid-Upoer Low, currently over the extreme western pandandle near Pensacola this morning, will slowly traverse eastward . Instability will be quite sufficient and upper level dynamics will be very strong for rain and strong storm cells across North and Central Florida late todsy into this evening. Very cold air aloft underneath this Upper Low may create potential of seeing hail for some across the region. Also, we should see winds pick up scross the area as the surface Low,(1008 mb ) currently just offshore the GA/SC coast, slowly intensifies.

More later ..

[gatorcane]

Indeed northjaxpro. I underestimated this system which knocked out power to my house and nearly overflowed my pool. I am out by the beach. The power was already vulnerable to wind so not surprised it went out. The worst of it was between 1:00am and 3:00am. Torrential rains blowing sideways and I estimated wind gusts up to 40-50mph. But without power or Internet, could not check the radar. There was even lightning and thunder. I was thinking it looked liked a Tropical Storm and certainly did not look like December. Power is still out on my street by the way.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I commented in posts yesterday and to SFL Cane yesterday morming that the dynamics for severe thunderstorms were in play for South Florida going into the rest of the day into the evening. I am not shocked to see what happened down there. This has been a very large, complex and wide impacting storm sytsem across the region, especially heavy rainfall, and now nto the Carolinas.

[NDG]

SE coastal FL ended up getting a lot more rain than forecasted while the Orlando area a lot less than forecasted.

[StormingB81]

Here in Brevard we messed all the fun. We probably ended up with about 2 inches but see what today brings

[northjaxpro]

:uasrrow: SE coastal FL ended up getting a lot more rain than forecasted while the Orlando area a lot less than forecasted.

Yes they did NDG. Southeast Florida region ended up being in the sweet spot, no pun intended. They had the right dynamics and diffluent flow late yesterday to bring about severe storms and very heavy rainfall into the evening.

Yeah, the Orlando area and portions of Central Florida did miss out on some of the heavy rainfall totals, and much of that was due to dry slotting, which occured yesterday, even for a brief time here across North and Northeast Floriida late yesterday morning until.about 2:00 yesterday afternoon here. The rain and storms came back in a big way here and into the night. We actually had another brief dry slot occur after 9 :00 last night, before we had e next round of rain move in from the south and southwest after midnight, and has now just cleared off the coast as of 10:00 a.m.

I received over an additional 1.5 inches to add to my total of just over 4 inches of rain to current for this entire event. We will have more rain late today and tonight with the mid-upper Low traversing directly over the region.

Must keep a watch on storm cells that may produce hail into tonight due due to some very cold air in the mid-upper levels with this Cut-off Low.

[psyclone]

I can't be the only one itching for a return of the sun. Thankfully we are about to hit a weather jackpot with a great stretch of weather after today.