Texas Winter 2019-2020

[wxman57]

Line of storms moved through SW Houston. Hoped to get a good bit of rain, but only got about 0.3", which is the heaviest rain I've received since Nov. 7th.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like the models are starting to lose the New Years system looks like it’ll blow up east of Texas once again.

What a surprise

That one looked good for many model runs until the models have slowly dropped our totals over the past few days.

[Brent]

I still see no reason to be optimistic about wintry chances around here anytime soon

Fortunately my trip to Lake Tahoe is coming up late next weekend and so far(granted it's long range) it looks snowy

Well, I think that those of you looking for snow in Texas now have your reason why it hasn't snowed lately - it's you, Brent. For the past two months, California (& Lake Tahoe) has been hit by storm after storm, piling up the snow. However, after tomorrow's small storm, the GFS predicts no further storm there until January 11th, probably as you're returning back to Texas. Perhaps it will snow in the D-FW area while you're gone?

What a boring pattern lol

I don't think it's gonna snow anywhere at this point

The EPS has nothing til day 14 again and nada on the GEFS

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’d like the PNA a little less negative but it’s not a horrible set up

[Ntxw]

I’d like the PNA a little less negative but it’s not a horrible set up

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Cfsv2 (the hot climate model) is spitting out a cold/colder southwest and s-central US for Jan. Hard flip is coming I think (will it have staying power or transient?). You can see several various runs of models popping 1050+ HP domes on and off. Week 2 and 3 is the beef.

1050+ HPs do more damage in Jan than Novembers/Decembers.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’d like the PNA a little less negative but it’s not a horrible set up

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Cfsv2 (the hot climate model) is spitting out a cold/colder southwest and s-central US for Jan. Hard flip is coming I think (will it have staying power or transient?). You can see several various runs of models popping 1050+ HP domes on and off. Week 2 and 3 is the beef.

1050+ HPs do more damage in Jan than Novembers/Decembers.

Gimme three 1050-1055s over a three week period then top it off with a 1060 and I’ll forgive the assholes who gave us a warm Christmas.

Gimme a snow or sleet storm with the first two 1050s and we can cancel the rest of Winter in the 2nd week of February and you warm weather living weirdos can have an early spring.

[Brent]

End of the Euro is quite cold but it's also bone dry

1052 mb high around Utah and about 1046 over Minnesota. The greatest cold anomalies are east of us but this is the day 10 euro

[wxman57]

The pattern does not look like a favorable one to bring down any really cold air to Texas over the next 2 weeks. Big upper low over the N. Pole indicates continued zonal flow with an active southern stream but no really cold air to work with.

[Ralph's Weather]

I’d like the PNA a little less negative but it’s not a horrible set up

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

This is great for the SW. Looks like the amazing start to winter will continue for SW ski resorts. Since before Thanksgiving they haven't gone much more than a week without a 6" snow storm with cold in between (-22F right now at Angel Fire). For Texas all that is missing is for the PV to split which usually happens in late Jan. Most -EPO/-ENSO winters are bookend winters.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I’d like the PNA a little less negative but it’s not a horrible set up

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

Cfsv2 (the hot climate model) is spitting out a cold/colder southwest and s-central US for Jan. Hard flip is coming I think (will it have staying power or transient?). You can see several various runs of models popping 1050+ HP domes on and off. Week 2 and 3 is the beef.

1050+ HPs do more damage in Jan than Novembers/Decembers.

Gimme three 1050-1055s over a three week period then top it off with a 1060 and I’ll forgive the assholes who gave us a warm Christmas.

Gimme a snow or sleet storm with the first two 1050s and we can cancel the rest of Winter in the 2nd week of February and you warm weather living weirdos can have an early spring.

If we could get a massive snowstorm here in SE Tx, something 10"+, i would never stress about snowstorms down here ever again. I would still hope for them, and watch the weather closely, but wont be so ancy for one. Christmas eve 2004 almost got me there. That was a gift.

[Rgv20]

A rainy New Years day is expected for the RGV.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday):00Z model suites have
not changed their tune continuing to indicate a very wet New
[code]Year`s Eve (Tue N) and New Year`s Day (Wed) as an upper level low
moving in from Mexico and a mid-level trough approaches from the
Rockies. Changes seen on this package will the potential for
higher rain amounts and a bump in the winds especially over the
coastal waters. The approach of the upper level low will initiate
cyclogenesis over NE Mexico Tuesday night allowing for an rapid
increase in sfc-700 mb southerly flow pumping copious amounts of
Gulf and Pacific moisture into the region. Matter of fact the
GFS/NAM/EC indicate pwats 0.75-1.15 inches 12z Tue, going out the
roof into the 1.5 to 2+ inch range by 18Z Wed which will be
exceeding record Pwats if these values occur. Deep layer forcing
and a strengthening upper jet with the approach of the upper low
should lead to the potential of extensive moderate to potentially
isolated heavy rainfall Wednesday. Deterministic models and WPC
QPF values have increased and now show amounts of 0.75 to 1.5
inches late Tue night-Thu AM with the bulk falling New Year`s Day
(Wed) which may allow any New Year`s Eve festivities to survive a
dosing with a light rain and drizzle anticipated to occur a the
beginning of this rain event. Kept the mention of thunder in for
Wednesday`s main event which could tip some bucket amounts close
to 2 inches causing some localized ponding or even low-lying
flooding. Pressure gradient strengthens and although sfc winds are
not indicated to increase 925-850mb winds strengthen which may
lead to stronger gusty periods especially near and along the coast
or with the showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures to remain
mild, mid 60s to low 70s, with this event due to the strong
southerly winds.

[Portastorm]

Well, this is encouraging ...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well, this is encouraging ...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7ngknYp/Capture.png [/url]

I'd like that ridge to be about 300-400 miles to the East. But yeah, its a start.

[bubba hotep]

Well, this is encouraging ...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/7ngknYp/Capture.png [/url]

A few of us have been talking about this upcoming pattern for a while now but I do have concerns about the EC ridging. We need some relaxation so that systems can dig out of the SW and not just automatically cut towards the Lakes.

[Portastorm]

Right ... I concur with you and ThunderSleetDreams. I just saw the information as "promising" in the sense of the pattern changing to something a little more favorable for us. The pattern in and of itself wouldn't do too much for us ... but it could lead to something much better.

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow:

Right ... I concur with you and ThunderSleetDreams. I just saw the information as "promising" in the sense of the pattern changing to something a little more favorable for us. The pattern in and of itself wouldn't do too much for us ... but it could lead to something much better.

Yea, a lot depends on the progression of the pattern from there. A lot of the analogs are not encouraging... However, I'm still hanging my hat on the IOD losing influence and the Pacific taking on more of a +ENSO look. That could give us a bit of a back loaded winter but it really sucks to start punting weeks once we get into January. Only so many potential weeks of winter for Texas

[bubba hotep]

Another GFS run without even some fantasy snow lol

Maybe we can get some short term changes to at least get a little rain into DFW with this next system.

[Brent]

Another GFS run without even some fantasy snow lol

Maybe we can get some short term changes to at least get a little rain into DFW with this next system.

not even a single GEFS member either

don't worry February will save us!

[Rgv20]

Some beneficial rainfall on tap for the RGV...Just of note the average rainfall for Jan is just a little over an inch so this is an anomalous rain event for this time of year.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Still on track for a
decent, though in most cases not problematic, rainfall event for
New Year`s Day. As January 1st, 2020 dawns, expect light-to-
moderate rain to be ongoing, or at least developing from
southwest-to-northeast, across much of the area (see Short-Term
discussion, above). As the surface low continues to trek/develop
northward, roughly along the Gulf coast, rain should increase with
regard to intensity toward mid-day. 12Z runs of NAM and GFS (as
well as latest WPC QPF progs) hint pretty strongly at a heavier
band developing in the frontogenetical zone on the northwestern
side of the surface low. Still a bit of uncertainty on where this
band will set up, but its existence certainly makes sense
conceptually. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder here and
there as well on New Year`s Day, especially from noontime onward.
Forecast soundings indicate very limited vertical
instability/MUCAPE, but rather strong mid-level vertical motion is
indicated in model time-height sections, which should be enough to
overcome the limited instability. As far as rainfall amounts,
model solutions have been bouncing around a bit, as well as
placement of highest totals. Have kept pretty close to WPC
guidance with this package, indicating widespread 1-2" totals
(perhaps a shade less near Zapata) through early Thursday morning.
Could see isolated 2.5-3" amounts where convection occurs, but
can`t see it going much higher than that. Rainfall rates should
not generally support flooding, but some ponding or even nuisance
flooding (reasonable worst-case) of lower-lying areas could happen
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will mainly hold in the 60s,
with cooler temps NW and warmer toward Brownsville.

[gboudx]

don't worry February will save us!

What year?