Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

New year, same +NAO during the winter months, what’s new? I can’t help but say that global warming is likely playing a big role in all of this but what do I know.

Enjoy whatever chill we get this weekend because we will be going into full blown torch mode afterwards! Beach anyone?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we are entering the brand new decade just like how much of the past decade has been during meteorological winter seasons, dealing with the ever persistent positive NAO index. The big Southeast U.S. ridge has become just about a permanent fixture during winters around here every year.

This truly remains one of the most fascinating and persistent anomalous weather patterns I have ever seen occur in all my years in this profession, and it just will not reverse itself during meteorological winter seasons for nearly a full decade now.

We don't have winter seasons at all anymore , even here across North and Northeast Florida peninsula. We barely have averaged only about 3 or 4 freezes a meteorological winter season, if that, since 2011. Amazing!!

Well, I will end up being close to right about seeing a cool spell during the first full week of January, which I predicted back just before Christmas, but it will only cool us to seasonal averages, maybe a touch below them with the cool spell coming in a few days. But, nothing noteworthy.

But, in terms of the pattern changing, I will eat my crow humbly. I succumb to the power of Mother Nature's seemingly permanent shield remaining over Florida and the Southeast U.S. for each and every meteorological winter season, OVER and OVER again!! I have my theories, but they would take up a lot of time to talk about for sure... I will save that for another day... Otherwise, the same ole song continues.....

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah, we are entering the brand new decade just like how much of the past decade has been during meteorological winter seasons, dealing with the ever persistent positive NAO index. The big Southeast U.S. ridge has become just about a permanent fixture during winters around here every year.

This truly remains one of the most fascinating and persistent anomalous weather patterns I have ever seen occur in all my years in this profession, and it just will not reverse itself during meteorological winter seasons for nearly a full decade now.

We don't have winter seasons at all anymore , even here across North and Northeast Florida peninsula. We barely have averaged only about 3 or 4 freezes a meteorological winter season, if that, since 2011. Amazing!!

Well, I will end up being close to right about seeing a cool spell during the first full week of January, which I predicted back just before Christmas, but it will only cool us to seasonal averages, maybe a touch below them with the cool spell coming in a few days. But, nothing noteworthy.

But, in terms of the pattern changing, I will eat my crow humbly. I succumb to the power of Mother Nature's seemingly permanent shield remaining over Florida and the Southeast U.S. for each and every meteorological winter season, OVER and OVER again!! I have my theories, but they would take up a lot of time to talk about for sure... I will save that for another day... Otherwise, the same ole song continues.....

Well said northjaxpro! I too am getting tired of the unseasonably warmer than average winters we’ve seen for nearly a decade now.

[psyclone]

Sunday looks to be about 10 degrees below normal here followed by a rebound to near normal for a few days. Good stuff overall knowing that mid winter shorts and biking weather extends just beyond. Too early to declare winter dead but the incoming warm spell mid month will safely bridge us into the 2nd half of Winter. I don't think we've even had a freeze headline come out of the Tampa Bay or Melbourne office yet this "cold" season. That's pretty impressive.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, we get our little cool shots down here in SFL, but they are increasingly transient and just don't seem to pack the punch I remember. It's not simply the fact that it can get warm in December and January - it always did that. The cool shots are just less frequent, don't last as long when they do arrive, and worse - the air masses flip back to warm and humid with a crazy quickness. We used to have more days of "in between" weather with cool NNE breezes before this happened...lately we're always back to SE flow straight out of the Caribbean.

Our winters were always pretty variable, but almost every year, at some point in December or January, usually around the New Year but not always, we'd get a good week or so of relative chill, even in warmer winter years. In Miami at least, that simply has not happened, since December 2010 - not even close.

I suspect it's a perfect storm combo of a few things - climate change, higher subtropical SSTs, and a greater urban heat island effect.

[northjaxpro]

For me, the coldest portion, or the supposed heart of winter, is the period from January 15 through February 15. It is the coldest portion of the meteorological winter, at least for this portion of the country.

I just feel strongly, and climatology also suggests, that if we escape this portion of winter, we would have escaped the worst that could impact us in terms of harsh cold. Once we get past mid-February here in Northeast Florida, Spring time is right upon us. It is rare we get hard freezes here after February 15.

So if the + NAO continues the rest of January, barring an drastic change in the pattern, the odds of seeing extreme cold for Florida standards drops off significantly.

I will hold on to the hope that somehow we will see at least one decent significant cold snap in either late January or early February. But, I am not going to hold my breath about this.

[psyclone]

We do still have a good bit of "winter" left but the incoming warm spell does represent a "get out of jail free" card for the coldest time of year. January is to freeze season as September is to hurricane season.

[boca]

I am starting to think maybe global warming is a possibility since growing up in the 70s and 80s we had plenty of cold snaps. Now we’re lucky to get one or two the whole winter . I deal with the heat and humidity but I miss those sharp cold fronts with punch we used to get.

[psyclone]

CPC tightens the screws more. All the cold resides in the west, warm east of the Mississippi centered squarely on the southeast....Huge area of 80% probs covering the southeast...that often correlates with a round of record or near record warmth.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What happen to the Miami weather discussions. Did they have a New Years Eve party and everyone got a hangover? No discussions since last year. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=MFL

[floridasun78]

What happen to the Miami weather discussions. Did they have a New Years Eve party and everyone got a hangover? No discussions since last year. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=MFL

their nation wide issue with all noaa website that not update with holiday their delay with fix

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am starting to think maybe global warming is a possibility since growing up in the 70s and 80s we had plenty of cold snaps. Now we’re lucky to get one or two the whole winter . I deal with the heat and humidity but I miss those sharp cold fronts with punch we used to get.

I agree with this. Granted we did get two winter events over here last year, December and January, but spring came soon after with avengence. Remember being in the 80’s in early February and it never let up. Couldn’t tell you the last time I’ve heard the terms blue norther, artic express, or artic clipper on the local news.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Ok floridasun. Had no idea site was down. Thanks for the info.

[gatorcane]

It is interesting to note the widespread above normal temp anomalies for the northern hemisphere to start out January. I checked Europe and Asia and see a lot of red on the TropicalTidbits maps even going out 10+ days. So +NAO looks to be an issue but certainly appears something on a more global scale could be going on. Could any of this mean anything global cyclone activity going forward (particularly the Atlantic) as far as cyclone intensity and steering? Perhaps hurricanes such as Dorian, Irma, and Michael are not just one-offs you see may see once in a lifetime any longer? Just think of all of the landfalling CAT 5s we have seen the last few years.

[boca]

What about the ozone layer does that fit in with global warming since it’s slowly getting depleted?

[Patrick99]

Man, still no NWS Miami area forecast discussion?

[NDG]

To make things worst the PNA is forecasted to go negative along with a +NAO & +AO it will be even warmer as we get into the middle of the month.
Some Pros are starting to point out to '93 as an analog year which did a warm January followed by a colder Feb.
Winter of '09/'10 is no longer an analog after having similarities in Oct & Nov.
Orlando ended Dec with a whopping 4+ deg F above average.

[northjaxpro]

Amazing record set today here in Jacksonville. The all-time record high temperature for both today's date and for the.month of January was recorded, with 85 degrees at the NWS Jax office.

This is the second straight month in which an all-time monthly record high was at least tied , with 85 degrees ironically for December as well.

Wow!! Some winter uhhh

[northjaxpro]

Amazing record set today here in Jacksonville. The all-time record high temperature for both today's date and for the.month of January was recorded, with 85 degrees at the NWS Jax office.

This is the second straight month in which an all-time monthly record high was at least tied, with 85 degrees ironically for December as well.

Wow!! Some winter we are having huh? Unbelievable

[mlfreeman]

Amazing record set today here in Jacksonville. The all-time record high temperature for both today's date and for the.month of January was recorded, with 85 degrees at the NWS Jax office.

This is the second straight month in which an all-time monthly record high was at least tied, with 85 degrees ironically for December as well.

Wow!! Some winter we are having uhhh? Unbelievable

I guess the new definition of winter is "didn't hit 90"....lol