Florida Weather

[boca]

I’m expecting August weather by mid January with the pattern we are in. Maybe will get some summertime thunderstorms forming off the sea breeze caused from the heat and humidity we will get. This weather we are having says winter cancel all over it.

[psyclone]

I'd expect we're still going to get doses of cooler weather. there's way too much winter left for us to just bridge into spring. The west is going to cash in with winter near term while the east gets a pass. It's too early to "season cancel" winter.

[northjaxpro]

Well, after yesterday's ridiculous record warmth here of 85F, we have a cold front approaching early this morning over the region. Expecting 1/2 - 3/4 inches, with some spots getting nearly an inch of rain. Front will push through the remainder of the region into tonight.

Well, the "cool spell" that I talked about impacting our region in the first week of January during the days just before Christmas, is upon us. However, it is not coming in with a true polar origin, like I thought it would when intially predicted. The - PNA and + NAO kept this from happening, and I ate my crow humbly So we will cool off only to temps just a tad below average the next couple of days. Lows here across interior colder locales of North Florida tomorrow morning will drop into the mid-upper 30s, but mostly low to mid 40s along the Saint Johns River and toward the coast.

Oh, and just wait. Get a load of this. The amazing thing is what is yet still to come, once we get past next week. Talk about a blow torch coming! Long range models show very strong and unusual ridging across the entire Eastern CONUS in the next 10 days, possibly longer. We are potentially looking at record high temperatures not only across Florida, but many areas across the USA east of the Mississippi River as we get deeper into January. My goodness, this is crazy! What happened to winter? I know, I know, climate change and global warming are possible theories in beginning to answering this question.

But, darn it is January, and I want winter back ....

[NDG]

Weather patterns along with current global warming have a lot to do with that when the pattern calls for warm weather the temps are hotter than with previous same patterns from just a years ago, as an example. But my question is what are the normal temperatures on earth supposed to be? In my opinion there is no such thing as normal temperatures. Do we humans have some part to do with global warming, I am sure, but there are bigger natural influences also, IMO.
Take for example the great Siberian Perma Frost Thaw Out going on during the past few summers, in that the ground in Siberia is thawing out leaving behind dead vegetation to decompose during the summer, vegetation that was frozen hundreds to thousands of years ago, who knows how long. So before the ground froze over the climate in Siberia had to be warmer than what it has been during the past few hundreds of years ago. According to some scientists there is so much methane being released from the decomposing vegetation in Siberia that is contributing to global warming even more, way more than the emissions being released by human activity.
At the end the hypocrisy is that people that live in high latitudes love a warmer than average winter, for example this morning on ABC's Good Morning America show, one of their stories the reporter said that Global Warming has a lot to do with wild fires in Australia but they were all rejoicing right after when Rob Marciano said that the long range forecast is calling for a warmer than normal temps for the next couple of weeks for the NE US.
Cold long brutal winters are no joke for people up there that costs their economies a lot more money.

[gatorcane]

60s for parts of the Northeast in a week? Crazy and way above normal:

[northjaxpro]

ò

:uarrow: Weather patterns along with current global warming have a lot to do with that when the pattern calls for warm weather the temps are hotter than with previous same patterns from just a years ago, as an example. But my question is what are the normal temperatures on earth supposed to be? In my opinion there is no such thing as normal temperatures. Do we humans have some part to do with global warming, I am sure, but there are bigger natural influences also, IMO.
Take for example the great Siberian Perma Frost Thaw Out going on during the past few summers, in that the ground in Siberia is thawing out leaving behind dead vegetation to decompose during the summer, vegetation that was frozen hundreds to thousands of years ago, who knows how long. So before the ground froze over the climate in Siberia had to be warmer than what it has been during the past few hundreds of years ago. According to some scientists there is so much methane being released from the decomposing vegetation in Siberia that is contributing to global warming even more, way more than the emissions being released by human activity.
At the end the hypocrisy is that people that live in high latitudes love a warmer than average winter, for example this morning on ABC's Good Morning America show, one of their stories the reporter said that Global Warming has a lot to do with wild fires in Australia but they were all rejoicing right after when Rob Marciano said that the long range forecast is calling for a warmer than normal temps for the next couple of weeks for the NE US.
Cold long brutal winters are no joke for people up there that costs their economies a lot more money.

Oh sure I definitely understand the pure delight many up in the Northeast are having with the forecast of well above normal temps in the long range. It is just disappointing for me and others who only have January and February in our neck of the woods to enjoy just a little bit of what winter can offer us. This I really emphasize coming off the heels of one of the hottest summer season in 2019 in recent memory here in Jax.

There is so much to get into about the Global Warming debate NDG, and that was a very interesting read about the decomposing vegetation in Siberia and the methane release from them. What you brought up about that is just one of several theories , of which some I have not even touched on yet. It s a lengthy discussion which really needs a seperate thread of its own for such a topic.

So, in the meantime, it is what it is, another very warm, anomalous pattern with the + NAO, and the strong - PNA index currently, which is only strengthening this pattern we are having once again during the heart of the meteorological winter season. The same ole' story we have been given from Mother Nature since 2011. This is how winter is now down here. I just have no other recourse but to accept this fact.

[TheStormExpert]

Normal has been and will continue to trend upwards for infinity!

Btw it’s Jan. 4th and 87° out as I type here in Jupiter, FL.

[psyclone]

Torch warning
start date: 1-10
expiration: None

[psyclone]

Look at the pattern aloft. The southeast ridge is nuts and will be exceptionally tough to dislodge. Florida, owing to its geography is the first to tuck under the ridge and the last to escape. Could this kill winter for us? it could if it persists and just runs the clock out. there's just too much winter left to make such a declaration but it is a possibility. Winter lovers in the west are going to get jackpotted with protracted below normal temps while the east sizzles (relatively)...so winter does exist out west where temps will be persistently below normal.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Crazy how strong this Atlantic ridge has become over the years during the winter months, but come summer during hurricane season it’s almost non existent but for a few days here and there. But at least that has been saving us from a hurricane train like 10-15 years ago.

[psyclone]

Nice crisp winter day out there with a good set up for radiational cooling tonight. frost advisories are out for portions of the Jax CWA. That's about as winter like as it's going to get. Our protracted winter heatwave continues to reel in closer (once again reinforcing the idea that long range cold is often fake while long range heat is real). Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day show the southeast buried in 80% above normal probs while the west shivers. Such high likelihoods often correlate to temps near record highs. With this pattern likely to persist for more than half the month it's likely that departures from average for the month will end up 4-5+ degrees above normal. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out but my theory is if you're in florida and it's gonna torch...do it at the coldest time of the year..

[gatorcane]

Indeed a torch but the GFS is hinting the pattern breaks and the SE ridge finally succumbs itself come later in January where cold air could penetrate. Plenty of winter left to get a freeze into the peninsula. We shall see.

[psyclone]

Yeah I'd be surprised if winter didn't try to make a comeback at some point. As long as it's winter it can certainly get cold.

[NDG]

Even though my low was 41 F in my area of Orlando there were frosty roofs thanks to a perfect radiational cooling effect. As usual, interior sections of the Nature Coast saw a light freeze this morning.
Back to the 80s by the end of the week.

[SFLcane]

Crazy how strong this Atlantic ridge has become over the years during the winter months, but come summer during hurricane season it’s almost non existent but for a few days here and there. But at least that has been saving us from a hurricane train like 10-15 years ago.

Those few days the ridge was not there and kept Florida from being sent back into the 1940's with Dorian. So close

[northjaxpro]

We had widespread frost this morning for the first time this season. Pretty good layer spread out all over my yard and on the car this morning. The temperature bottomed out at 36 degrees at my home this morning. Jax Cecil Commerce recorded 31 degrees earlier this morning. This was also the coldest reading I measured at my home station here since December 3, which is when the only freeze this season occured here at home, which was 31 degrees.

[psyclone]

Pine trees are pollinating here. First sign of spring is about a week ahead of schedule

[psyclone]

Warm anoms are maxed out from southern va to north fl on the latest 6-10 day from the CPC...meanwhile nearly maxed below normal probs exist over the northern rockies..this will likely yield a battle zone with March like flooding over the ohio and mid Mississippi valleys. What an exceptionally interesting weather pattern unfolding with plenty of extremes. Locally our torch begins around the 10th with a yet to be determined duration...but a 2 week minimum appears likely

[floridasun78]

nice have winter for three days by end of week back warmer temp

[psyclone]

Keep calm and torch on