Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Portastorm]

I sense a massive winter storm for Texas later this month ... just the kind that includes a wintry mix for Houston, making Wxman57 miserable! I'm getting Champ the Charger ready to go. Loading up on the Grey Goose. Let's do this!

[Cpv17]

The Euro isn’t enthused.

[txtwister78]

The Euro isn’t enthused.

The Euro hasn't really had a great track record with cold or precip thus far. 0Z and 12z runs were wildly different in the longer term as well. Just my .02

[lsuhurricane]

Euro Ensembles appear much colder than the Operational. Control brings the air south without an eastern bias as well.

At least it's something to look at compared to the Zonal/Pacific front doldrums.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

18z still dumps Arctic air right into the Gulf... centered on the 16th-17th.

[wxman57]

18z still dumps Arctic air right into the Gulf... centered on the 16th-17th.

Well, I don't know about that. 18Z GFS temps are one morning to near 30 in Houston following the front. Air isn't that cold in the 18Z GFS run. Nothing like the low of 17 and high of 26 on the 00Z run. It does bring some colder air down around days 15-16.

[Brent]

Not a ton of snow here in Lake Tahoe and it was actually a sunny day well into the 40s so mostly a lot of dirty piles but as soon as I got my rental car I went driving into the mountains. Supposed to have an inch or two before I leave Friday morning. Lot of icy spots walking around saw several people fall

[gboudx]

Brent, I can confirm that you have more snow in those pics, than there is currently in Rockwall and Wylie.

[Brent]

Brent, I can confirm that you have more snow in those pics, than there is currently in Rockwall and Wylie.

Yeah I was lamenting to the guy at the rental car place about how it doesn't snow in Dallas and he looks around and goes "yeah we need more"

the news here is saying snow pack is normal in the mountains but he's not the only one to mention the lack of snow today

[PTrackerLA]

Before we get too into the what the GFS is depicting (tldr snow into the gulf of mexico) the 18z GFS ensemble mean keeps the cold air bottled up north of Oklahoma. Until the Euro goes all in I'm hesitant but I'm pretty sure the GFS sniffed out the record cold November front over 10 days out. It would be nice to get some more hard freezes before winter is over but we've already surpassed last winter's low by over 5 degrees. Too bad it was November 13th!

Side note I have to disagree with Wxman57's comment on mosquitos a while back. We always have tons of them during warm months that went well into fall but they absolutely vanished after mid November, at least in my backyard where it counts. My 2 year old is extremely sensitive to bites (like his Mom but they dont phase me I just get a red dot where they bite.) Unfortunately they have returned just since Christmas week .

[TheProfessor]

Top Analog for this late week system on CIPS is the Super Tuesday Outbreak

[MississippiWx]

Top Analog for this late week system on CIPS is the Super Tuesday Outbreak

Anytime we get this Southeast Ridge battling against cold air from the Northwest, expect trouble on the Southeast side of the approaching trough. The dynamics of this system are concerning.

[harp]

The GFS has trended less and less cold air each of the last several runs. As a result, the frozen precip is now gone. It was about the only eye candy we have had this year and was fun while it lasted!

[Cpv17]

The GFS has trended less and less cold air each of the last several runs. As a result, the frozen precip is now gone. It was about the only eye candy we have had this year and was fun while it lasted!

I was literally about to say the same thing lol

[Brent]

The GFS has trended less and less cold air each of the last several runs. As a result, the frozen precip is now gone. It was about the only eye candy we have had this year and was fun while it lasted!

How shocking... Not

[TropicalTundra]

GFS now showing an apparent ice storm with temperatures above freezing in parts of south Texas. But at least there is basically above 95% humidity in most of Texas

[wxman57]

Side note I have to disagree with Wxman57's comment on mosquitos a while back. We always have tons of them during warm months that went well into fall but they absolutely vanished after mid November, at least in my backyard where it counts. My 2 year old is extremely sensitive to bites (like his Mom but they dont phase me I just get a red dot where they bite.) Unfortunately they have returned just since Christmas week .

You misunderstood. I said the cold doesn't kill all the mosquitoes. They go dormant in cooler weather but return when it warms up, which is what you're describing above.

[bubba hotep]

It won't take much more shifting to put DFW under the gun on Friday.

[MississippiWx]

It won't take much more shifting to put DFW under the gun on Friday.

https://i.ibb.co/wz5hGRt/IMG-20200107-080357.jpg

Models are trending slower with the ejection of the trough. This allows for places farther west to destabilize further before the main system moves through. Slower helps you guys get some moisture moving in for more rain potential, but it also increases the severe threat.

[bubba hotep]

The latest Euro Weeklies show more of the same through late February... Really strong -PNA events can have some staying power and the analog lags don't look encouraging either. We really need something big to shake up this pattern or we may not see the benefits from an improving Pacific until it's too late for Texas.