Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Cerlin]

After the last near miss where most of the EPS had snow for DFW, I think I trust all things GFS more...

[Brent]

NBC 5 just mentioned wet snow a "possibility" on Saturday for DFW. Seems like a long shot but something to monitor. Ralph's Weather mentioned this possibility a couple days ago.

EPS is more enthusiastic about some wrap around snow for Northern DFW than it is for the winter storm the GFS is showing later on. Also, the EPS mean is nearly 2" at DFW for Friday, trends breaking in our favor for once?

Maybe so. The forecast graphics did show a more westward rain shield that encompasses.all of DFW. That includes a higher severe chance I am assuming. That is no bueno. Gimmie a solid downpour and skip the severe stuff please. We should all be weather aware in any case.

Yeah I land at 5pm Friday in Dallas so I'm definitely watching the weather of course this will be the one that actually is good lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Some inverted “S”s showing up in the 500mb pattern on the GFS.

Definitely a -EPO but ridge doesn’t build from our normal areas. More of a SW to NE Alaskan Ridge. Towards the end of the run it is more stacked North-South.

When you get an anomalous negative PNA you get that SW-NE orientation of the ridge. If the GFS is correct, that should be relaxing in the 21st onward timeframe.

[wxman57]

Looked at the 18Z GFS ice forecast for Texas next week then checked the upper air pattern valid at the same time. It's not what I expected, at all. The surface pattern and icy mix doesn't seem to match the upper-air pattern. Typically, when that happens, the surface map is going to be changing. I'm not buying the big ice storm solution yet.

[rwfromkansas]

While I don't want bad severe weather, the reality is we need to have the higher severe chance go west to impact more of the metro to get higher rain chances, too. If we aren't in the higher risk area, the storms will likely just be starting over the metro and won't really produce much rain.

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro with 3" at DFW and over 5" for eastern areas of the metroplex.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looked at the 18Z GFS ice forecast for Texas next week then checked the upper air pattern valid at the same time. It's not what I expected, at all. The surface pattern and icy mix doesn't seem to match the upper-air pattern. Typically, when that happens, the surface map is going to be changing. I'm not buying the big ice storm solution yet.

Can’t really argue with your analysis on the 18z run. Would like to see lower heights in the SW and Texas as the battle ground. It’s not too far off but we need our system to dig into the SW. it will be interesting to see how that progresses seeing that the models are all seeing a cold front.

[sphelps8681]

So what kind of severe weather am I expected to have this Friday into Saturday morning. Local weather guys said it could be severe. East Tx and up North to our lake region near Sam Rayburn lake.

[Ralph's Weather]

NBC 5 just mentioned wet snow a "possibility" on Saturday for DFW. Seems like a long shot but something to monitor. Ralph's Weather mentioned this possibility a couple days ago. Either way an actual cold front with actual cold air is coming this weekend!!!! A day in the 40's if you can believe it.

I mentioned this in a post a couple days ago. Often when we have severe weather in winter it means we have a strong trough so a flip to snow is always possible. It all depends on if the trough traverses far enough south. I still expect a band of possible heavy snow in OK, but there is a chance for flakes to sneak into N TX.

[Ntxw]

Looked at the 18Z GFS ice forecast for Texas next week then checked the upper air pattern valid at the same time. It's not what I expected, at all. The surface pattern and icy mix doesn't seem to match the upper-air pattern. Typically, when that happens, the surface map is going to be changing. I'm not buying the big ice storm solution yet.

By sheer weight of the dense, cold air near the surface. Whatever comes out of Western Canada should be quite cold. Of course the upper air pattern would say to hold it up. Something also comes out of the subtropical jet stream.

What happens with the Pacific ridge can have big changes. A progressive ridge will likely push the cold air down. That's quite cold though in the northern tier! If I were you, I'd be maybe unnerved it might test your wall.



The air looks colder than what it was in November.

[Cerlin]

00z GFS for the 5th straight run in a row has an ice storm on or around the 17th. And, that is the 10th out of the last 11 runs to have an ice or snow event on that time for some (and usually significant) part of Texas. Is every run logical? Not really, the upper dynamics don’t look conducive for wintry weather. That being said, it’s impressive that it hasn’t really let off of it.

[TropicalTundra]

GFS now showing 13 inches of snow right where I live in Bell County. la la Land at it’s finest

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looked at the 18Z GFS ice forecast for Texas next week then checked the upper air pattern valid at the same time. It's not what I expected, at all. The surface pattern and icy mix doesn't seem to match the upper-air pattern. Typically, when that happens, the surface map is going to be changing. I'm not buying the big ice storm solution yet.

By sheer weight of the dense, cold air near the surface. Whatever comes out of Western Canada should be quite cold. Of course the upper air pattern would say to hold it up. Something also comes out of the subtropical jet stream.

What happens with the Pacific ridge can have big changes. A progressive ridge will likely push the cold air down. That's quite cold though in the northern tier! If I were you, I'd be maybe unnerved it might test your wall.

https://i.imgur.com/sf6YwWs.png

The air looks colder than what it was in November.

What’s even more interesting is our upper air pattern just 48 hours after our storm. Heights lower from the Arctic right down into Texas and we lose the SE ridge all together.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Last half of January looks down right frigid from Kansas northward. Could we be setting the stage for an extremely active end to Winter?

[Cpv17]

What was the strength of the hp during the cold snap in January of 18? Anyone know?

[txtwister78]

Looks like latest GEM is trending toward GFS with frozen precip & colder pattern late next wk.

[Cpv17]

The way the Euro is handling the progression of next weeks front is puzzling to me.

[TropicalTundra]

GFS looking a little different

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What was the strength of the hp during the cold snap in January of 18? Anyone know?

The thread from that Winter is still up so I bet it could be found in there