Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Brent]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

Of course it'll be the day I fly back

Under a winter wx advisory here for 1-3 inches of snow btw I was walking through a park today and the snow was deeper than my shoes several times

That will be a bumpy ride!

Yeah really curious to see what happens I'm kind of in a time crunch Friday morning leaving here to the airport so this might work in my favor at least in that way

It's interesting though the last time I saw snow on vacation in NYC a couple winters ago also had a stormy return to Dallas

[gatorcane]

I see Wxman57 has made some progress in pushing the big cold and wintry precip event in 8-9 days from South Texas to Now mostly the Texas panhandle and nearly out of north Texas as shown on 18Z GFS.

[starsfan65]

I think the East Texas folks(and maybe just north of Houston) really need to be on guard for Friday. If you get any surface based storms to pop up ahead of MCS it could get really bad really quick.

Heat Miser!!!!!!!

[bubba hotep]

Euro has been very consistent with bringing snow to northern DFW and northward. This is going to be a very dynamic system and I wouldn't rule out some flakes or maybe more.

[Brent]

More of my pictures in Tahoe today this was all old snow at least several days old if not older but away from the trail where I was for awhile was so deep my shoes were buried a few times and it was a struggle to walk through I was kind of surprised since it's been warm and sunny the last 3 days

Euro has been very consistent with bringing snow to northern DFW and northward. This is going to be a very dynamic system and I wouldn't rule out some flakes or maybe more.

https://i.ibb.co/MDvkBjS/IMG-20200108-195527.jpg

That'd be hilarious the morning after I get back lol

[1900hurricane]

I know everyone here loves their winter stuff, but Friday is really starting to raise and eyebrow here for areas I-35 and east.

[South Texas Storms]

Models are converging on a potentially big time rain event for DFW, could see widespread 3-5". This goes with an increasing svr wx threat, esp. if isolated cells fire along the dryline west of DFW early Friday afternoon.

Looking better for south central Texas as well! Most models appear to be trending towards the slower and deeper Euro. Don't forget about us DFW friends! We need rain...even more than yall do. SA finished with a 10+ inch rainfall deficit in 2019. Hoping for a much wetter year in 2020!

I think the SPC could shift the severe threat further west and possibly even a bit more south by what I’m seeing on the models.

Definitely. I can't believe SA isn't even in the marginal risk area. Euro and NAM have a squall line blasting through there.

[1900hurricane]

Looking better for south central Texas as well! Most models appear to be trending towards the slower and deeper Euro. Don't forget about us DFW friends! We need rain...even more than yall do. SA finished with a 10+ inch rainfall deficit in 2019. Hoping for a much wetter year in 2020!

I think the SPC could shift the severe threat further west and possibly even a bit more south by what I’m seeing on the models.

Definitely. I can't believe SA isn't even in the marginal risk area. Euro and NAM have a squall line blasting through there.

Parameter space is pretty solid all up and down I-35. The issue with the further south locations is that you start to play cap-roulette with surface-based thunderstorm initiation, as is often the case. I think the 700 mb 8ºC isotherm may be a good delineator for the southern extend of possible warm sector convection, which cuts it close with regions around I-10. Regardless, I think it's a safe bet that at least the marginal contour gets tugged back SW some if for no other reason for the possible squall line along or just ahead of the cold front. In fact, I think the SPC Day 2 Outlook may tug all risk contours a little west with the NAM trending towards the slightly slower ECMWF.

[Haris]

Just a few miles could mean all or nothing here along the 35 CORR, Friday.

Not getting my hopes up but fingers crossed. I do think a slight risk is warranted. High bust potential, either way.

[sphelps8681]

I think the East Texas folks(and maybe just north of Houston) really need to be on guard for Friday. If you get any surface based storms to pop up ahead of MCS it could get really bad really quick.

I just asked my local weather met and my area should see winds over 50mph likely. Wish there was more discussion about this.

[1900hurricane]

There might be a little kink in the wind field around 3 km up, but everything below that, and especially in the 0-1 km layer is absolutely hellacious on the 00Z NAM runs.

[bubba hotep]

Delkus is all in!

[cheezyWXguy]

There might be a little kink in the wind field around 3 km up, but everything below that, and especially in the 0-1 km layer is absolutely hellacious on the 00Z NAM runs.

18z was actually even worse. I'm seeing a bit of inconsistency run to run on timing of this system's transit across the state. The 18z was much slower than the 12z, and the 0z was slightly faster than the 18z. Based on the environments displayed in all 3, it definitely appears that the slower this system moves, the more significant the severe weather probabilities in areas from the metroplex to the east and south

[cheezyWXguy]

On the other hand, the 0z GFS is slower than the 18z GFS, showing the storms firing further west. It also pulls in noticeably more wrap-around moisture into DFW on Sat morning when it gets cold enough to snow.

[Haris]

GFS caves !

[South Texas Storms]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GFVFRDJ/GFSSGP-prec-prec-051 [/url]

GFS caves !

About time!

[sphelps8681]

There might be a little kink in the wind field around 3 km up, but everything below that, and especially in the 0-1 km layer is absolutely hellacious on the 00Z NAM runs.

18z was actually even worse. I'm seeing a bit of inconsistency run to run on timing of this system's transit across the state. The 18z was much slower than the 12z, and the 0z was slightly faster than the 18z. Based on the environments displayed in all 3, it definitely appears that the slower this system moves, the more significant the severe weather probabilities in areas from the metroplex to the east and south

How bad does it look more toward beaumont and north of there? My weather guy says over 50mph winds likely in my area.

[cheezyWXguy]

There might be a little kink in the wind field around 3 km up, but everything below that, and especially in the 0-1 km layer is absolutely hellacious on the 00Z NAM runs.

18z was actually even worse. I'm seeing a bit of inconsistency run to run on timing of this system's transit across the state. The 18z was much slower than the 12z, and the 0z was slightly faster than the 18z. Based on the environments displayed in all 3, it definitely appears that the slower this system moves, the more significant the severe weather probabilities in areas from the metroplex to the east and south

How bad does it look more toward beaumont and north of there? My weather guy says over 50mph winds likely in my area.

That sounds like a reasonable expectation for the squall line. If there are any storms that form ahead of the line, then severe threats could be more significant.

[Cerlin]

I just hope people don’t get too distracted by the possibility of snow and overlook how potentially dangerous the squall line could be on Friday, especially with how volatile the models are as the runs get closer.

[Jarodm12]

Hey everyone I live in Durant Oklahoma now, and I've really been paying attention to this trowel that is being forecast to appear somewhere in northern Texas and Oklahoma, and I noticed the 00z nam trended a bit further north, but its wobbling and the gfs trended south and west, what I am asking is do any of you think that I really could see some snow here on Saturday morning ? Or should I not be excited about this at all? I'm also aware the models are trending to a very dangerous severe weather outbreak as well so I will be paying close attention to that