Florida Weather

[boca]

I think that the NAO will stay positive for a while which means summer will continue in winter for Florida thanks to the SE ridge

[NDG]

How can a pro-met like John Morales overlook the winter of Jan 2010 as one of the coldest in Florida in which Key West broke a record and the week of Jan 7-13 tied a record of an average temp of 53.4 deg F during the whole week? I really don't like he has become a global warming doomsday alarmist. I replied to him to let him know that he did not have to go back all the way to 1876, that just 10 years ago Key West also had its coldest week on record, but of course has not replied yet.

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1214652050870620160

[psyclone]

Do we have long range cold showing up? I can never tell if it's legit or -removed-.

[TheStormExpert]

Wouldn’t surprise me if South Florida at least doesn’t see a significant cold front for at least the next 3-4 weeks with current trends! This winter will likely be the warmest on record for numerous places in Florida if this in fact does happen.

[boca]

Bring on hurricane season(tracking) this weather is so boring.

[psyclone]

Latest 6-10 has maxed warm anoms over peninsular florida...and the 8-14 day takes the foot off the gas a bit. A protracted torch is certain, the question is when does it end. I'm watching the 8-14 day over the next few cycles for clues. I suspect we have some moderation but remain on the warm side of average long term.

[northjaxpro]

January will more than likely end up being well above average. I have also looked closely at the long range outlook and I am here to tell you, that Ridge looks so anomalously strong that it is really going to take a lot to dislodge it or flatten it down, at least for the next 10-14 days. I do not see any signs of the - PNA and +NAO teleconnections relenting anytime soon.

Most cold air intrusions will stay out west , and with the progressive west to east flow across the CONUS, most of the real cold arctic air will stay bottomed up in Canada will not be able to dislodge south into the the United States east of the Mississippi River in the foreseeable future. So, we will be likely looking at near record or record warmth for the month of January across many areas of the peninsula. We already have set the all time warmest day ever in the month recorded here in Jax just last week. Incredible!

[TheStormExpert]

Yep this ridge is here to stay for quite some time. Hope no one was expecting a repeat of the January 2010.

[gatorcane]

Bring on hurricane season(tracking) this weather is so boring.

If we have this kind of pattern and ridge come hurricane season it will definitely open the door. Good thing it is happening in the peak of winter.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It’s amazing to see how the patterns between winter and summer have completely flipped over the years. Looking at that pic you would think that is for middle of august, not middle of January.

[TheStormExpert]

Bring on hurricane season(tracking) this weather is so boring.

If we have this kind of pattern and ridge come hurricane season it will definitely open the door. Good thing it is happening in the peak of winter.

https://i.postimg.cc/Kv3FzX40/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-19.png

Not too often that you see a strong Bermuda High like that during the middle of winter.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s amazing to see how the patterns between winter and summer have completely flipped over the years. Looking at that pic you would think that is for middle of august, not middle of January.

No they have not completely flipped! Dorian got as close as it did to Florida thanks to a stronger, slowly eroding Bermuda High. Don't forget 2017 featured a strong Bermuda High throughout most of hurricane season.

[northjaxpro]

We had another excellent radiational cooling evening and into this morning as the High Pressure axis was parked directly over the area. Temperatures bottomed all the way down to the dew points in most areas. I measured a very chilly 34 degrees this morning.here at the home station. Widespread frost again. Some spots in the interior locales did drop to or slightly below the freeze mark this morning.

Well, this will be it for "winter" for around here for at least the next 10-12 days as Mother Nature's seemingly ever present mighty shield, aka The Southeast Ridge, courtesy of the + NAO , places us under the blow torch.

We will see a wetter pattern emerge again as well with this warmer pattern with moist southerly flow taking hold over the region in the medium to long term.

I am praying for some type of winter to come back maybe by the time we get to the end of January or the start of February. One can only hope right

[psyclone]

Decadent warmth is back and it feels wonderful. This incoming torch is warmer than I would prefer at this time of the year but considering how cold it can get...I shall happily accept

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS is back to its ways with a widespread hard freeze for Florida in the long-range:

[ronjon]

And snow in Florida Gator. How often do you see that in a model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020010918&fh=348

[psyclone]

Long live the GFS model canes and model snows!

[gatorcane]

And snow in Florida Gator. How often do you see that in a model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020010918&fh=348

Snow into the Gulf as well. Next run it will all go poof with a SE ridge you would see in July!

[mlfreeman]

And snow in Florida Gator. How often do you see that in a model?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020010918&fh=348

Two inches of snow in Jacksonville. That'd probably bring about as much chaos as a Dorian landfall.

But that's the 348 hour GFS...don't go buy any lotto tickets with numbers from that model frame.

[boca]

Don’t forget the NAO is positive and the GFS is on crack. I wonder if the GFS takes into account were the NAO is at.