Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Man that GFS run was something else! Bet the 00z run is the complete opposite at that timeframe.

Fortunately the teleconnections won't support such a crazy idea anytime soon (if ever).

[NDG]

Man that GFS run was something else! Bet the 00z run is the complete opposite at that timeframe.

Fortunately the teleconnections won't support such a crazy idea anytime soon (if ever).

You wouldn't believe all the people on Twitter that have all the sudden become GFS fans, including JB, past its 7 day range. Too much innocent -removed- going on out there

[boca]

Why is the GFS on steroids if the NAO is positive?

[northjaxpro]

Why is the GFS on steroids if the NAO is positive?

GEFS is responding to a strengthening MJO in the long range, which GEFS is forecasting for the week beginning January 20. We will see if it is right. The signal is forecast to cross the Maritime Continent and reach the Western Pacific by the end of the next 10-12 days.

[gatorcane]

The CMC shows a deep trough over the Eastern CONUS now at the end as well. So the GFS has support. Going from the blow torch to the freezer in a short period of time would be a wild swing that is for sure!

[northjaxpro]

The CMC shows a deep trough over the Eastern CONUS now at the end as well. So the GFS has support.

Yeah, I know. GFS has been sensing and projecting a favorable MJO signal to occur for a while now. It just has taken a bit longer than initally thought. So, just waiting now for the EURO to come onboard as time progresses. I think we are on the cusp of seeing a big time pattern change within the next 10-12 days. The teleconnections also will gradually begin to align-up favorably as time progresses in correspondence to the MJO forecast..

[gatorcane]

Yeah northjaxpro, it’s possible. I just checked the NAO forecast and members look to be trending more positive so not sure if the GFS will get this right. Let’s see if the MJO can finally deliver to the SE US. Some good model watching ahead!

[northjaxpro]

The CMC shows a deep trough over the Eastern CONUS now at the end as well. So the GFS has support. Going from the blow torch to the freezer in a short period of time would be a wild swing that is for sure!

It's happened on several occasions. Now, I am not suggesting record cold with this situation now, but 1985 immediately does come to my mind. We had record warmth just prior to that record breaking arctic outbreak that year and later in January of that year, the arctic express froze the entire Florida peninsula, and the entire Eastern CONUS for that matter. So, there is precedent for such wild swings to happen in such a short period of time.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is cold but nothing like the last couple of runs.

Did anybody believe 1-2 inches of snow at Disney World?

[boca]

Ha ha gatorcane I was hoping for snow when I go to New York on January 22nd and it looks like a cold rain.

[psyclone]

Long range cold on the GFS is the met equivalent of a Nigerian lotto scam...everyone laughs at it but it keeps working. I'll believe it when I see the arctic front blasting toward us. until then enthusiasm should be kept in check. It is correct sometimes and there's plenty of winter left so all is not lost for cold weather fans.

[Patrick99]

I thought the main driver of significant Florida winter, especially all the way down at the southern end of the state, was that combination PNA+ and NAO-. What does the MJO have to do with our winter weather? I feel like I only ever hear about the MJO during hurricane season, with the wet phase favoring more tropical activity and the dry phase helping squash it.

[boca]

I thought the main driver of significant Florida winter, especially all the way down at the southern end of the state, was that combination PNA+ and NAO-. What does the MJO have to do with our winter weather? I feel like I only ever hear about the MJO during hurricane season, with the wet phase favoring more tropical activity and the dry phase helping squash it.

That’s a real good question and I like to know as well because the GFS is on steroids but I think as the days go by it will flip since the NAO is positive.

[psyclone]

8-14 day obliterates the southeast warmth...an eyebrow raising change

[northjaxpro]

I thought the main driver of significant Florida winter, especially all the way down at the southern end of the state, was that combination PNA+ and NAO-. What does the MJO have to do with our winter weather? I feel like I only ever hear about the MJO during hurricane season, with the wet phase favoring more tropical activity and the dry phase helping squash it.

That’s a real good question and I like to know as well because the GFS is on steroids but I think as the days go by it will flip since the NAO is positive.

Oh, the MJO pertains to more than just its effects on hurricane activity Patrick99. The MJO phenomenon can be a very important factor, and have dramatic impacts in the mid-latitudes. The MJO is a strong contributor to various extreme events across North America and within the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during the winter months. MJO pulses, depending on their strength, can influence timing and strength of monsoons across the ocean basins within their phases, the suppressed convective phase, in which winds converge at the top of the atmosphere, and then the suppression stage, in which forcing air to sink and, later, to diverge at the surface . As air sinks from high altitudes, it warms and dries, which suppresses rainfall.

However, these pulses can have a significant influence on jet stream patterns, which can lead to potential cold weather outbreaks across North America and the CONUS , or extreme heat events, or lead to extreme flood events in the CONUS as well.

The GFS is currently responding to the recent favorable forecast of the MJO, which I saw as being at Phase 3/4 as we head into January 20-24. If that forecast is right, we just may be seeing a change or shift in the jet stream pattern across the North America continent before we end January... Thus, we could see a cold outbreak in CONUS soon...

[gatorcane]

Thanks for that explanation northjaxpro. Looks like we have another GFS run which brings cold but nothing like the runs yesterday. A pattern change looks likely, how cold it gets is the question.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks for that explanation northjaxpro. Looks like we have another GFS run which brings cold but nothing like the runs yesterday. A pattern change looks likely, how cold it gets is the question.

Right. I am reasonably confident that a pattern change is coming, especially for the Central and Eastern CONUS as we get to the week of January 20.

We will get better clarity hopefully in the next 2-3 days as to the extent of how cold it could potentially get.
I will point out that there is some extremely cold arctic air bottled up all across Canada and the extreme Northern tier of the Great Plains, which is still being shown in the models 10-12 days out. How much of it gets dislodged southward is indeed the question. Several factors will dictate that as time progresses...

[boca]

If the NAO is 1 1/2 deviations above normal how can we get but a glancing blow and we get winds directly out of the NE due to the progressive pattern and the polar vortex over the North Pole area?

[northjaxpro]

If the NAO is 1 1/2 deviations above normal how can we get but a glancing blow and we get winds directly out of the NE due to the progressive pattern and the polar vortex over the North Pole area?

We need more of a relaxation of the PNA, to bring it preferably to a move into the positive index, which would promote more in the way of mid- ipper level height rises out across the Westernrn U.S. or into Western Canada. This would promote more of a continental northwesterly flow across the Eastern and Southeastern CONUS. However, cold, arctic air has to be already be in place to be dislodged southward with this scenario .We have seen this occur back in early January 2018, in which we had a + NAO occuring , but we had a decent + PNA index at that time. Cold arctic air was already in place across the Northern Tier of the U.S. and got dislodged into the Eastern CONUS, and helped to generate that Southeast U.S. Winter Storm , which the GFS nailed the forecast of that event in January 3-5, 2018. So, Boca, that is the best recent example of how a.+ PNA influence can help offset the + NAO and bring cold spells into this part of the world.

Now, of course, a - NAO is needed for cold to potentially dive deep down the spine of the peninsula., something we have not seen in nearly a decade during meteorological winter.

[boca]

Northjaxpro thanks as always will see if this materializes and I’m hoping for snow in New York during jan 22nd to jan 26 time frame