SPAC: Tino - Post Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

SH, 93, 2020011200, , BEST, 0, 120S, 1625E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.6S
163.0E AT 112100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
VIS IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC
AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

[Nancy Smar]

TD04F WAS ANALYZED NEAR 12.7S AND 162.9E AT 120300UTC.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE TILL 17TH JANUARY 2020:

MONDAY 13TH JANUARY - LOW
TUESDAY 14TH JANUARY - MODERATE
WEDNESDAY 15TH JANUARY - HIGH
THURSDAY 16TH JANUARY - HIGH
FIRDAY 17TH JANUARY - HIGH

[Nancy Smar]

FKPS01 NFFN 161600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200116/1500Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: TINO
ADVISORY NR: 2020/1
OBS PSN: 16/1500Z S1324 E17706
CB: WI 280NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500
MOV: SSE 11KT
C: 985HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 16/2100 S1448 E17812
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 17/0300 S1606 E17924
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 17/0900 S1724 W17930
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 17/1500 S1842 W17824
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200116/1900Z

[1900hurricane]

Has quite the presence on the Himawari-8 full disk image.

[alan1961]

Quite a few south pacific islands going to be impacted by this cyclone
probably the most inhabited ones are the samoan islands so even though
it dont look to be a threat to land unfortunately it is, again this could
be stronger than forecast.

[1900hurricane]

Curiously at maximum intensity, SMAP had a very asymmetrical 100 kt TC. Many other microwave estimates were hanging out in the 90-95 kt range, so perhaps some decent underestimation with this one. 85-90 kt might be a decent compromise between microwave and IR estimates.

SH, 08, 202001181726, 30, SMAP, IR, , 2300S, 17150W, , 1, 88, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 46, 137, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
SH, 08, 202001181726, 30, SMAP, IR, , 2300S, 17150W, , 1, 88, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
SH, 08, 202001181726, 30, SMAP, IR, , 2300S, 17150W, , 1, 88, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 71, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , P, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained