Florida Weather

[NDG]

Yesterday the weather was like a late Spring day, with pop up showers in the afternoon after a high of 86 degrees with dewpoints near 70. Today is still warm but the humidity has gone down some. Plants and trees are starting to bloom.

[gatorcane]

It appears cold weather is on the way for Florida based on the last couple of days of model runs, likely out about 8-10 days.

[psyclone]

CPC has everyone east of the Mississippi below normal in the latest 8-14 day. Looks like the cooldown starts this weekend.

[northjaxpro]

CPC has everyone east of the Mississippi below normal in the latest 8-14 day. Looks like the cooldown starts this weekend.

Hallelujah!!! Have discussed the potential change for a while now. I am plain sick and tired of this record heat we have been having around here, including another record max temp set yesterday.

We can thank the MJO strengthening pulse contributing significantly for the change of the jet stream pattern over North America for next week, which I touched on that earlier. Maybe we will FINALLY see some version of winter after all!

[gatorcane]

CPC has everyone east of the Mississippi below normal in the latest 8-14 day. Looks like the cooldown starts this weekend.

Indeed, the blow torch looks to be a bit more ephemeral than previously thought:

[SFLcane]

Ok Euro...

[gatorcane]

Ok Euro...

https://i.imgur.com/44GG7YL.png

https://i.imgur.com/y4fEuyN.png

Freeze for Central Florida with 30s into South Florida. Thing is the GFS and CMC don’t show such a deep trough with the axis more off the Eastern Seaboard.

Update: GFS is coming in colder on the 12Z. Not as cold as the Euro but at least 3-5 degrees colder.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is indicating winter is far from over for Florida. After way above normal temps, looks like a stretch of below to even much below normal temps. Question is do we get a freeze threat from this pattern for Central or even Southern Florida?

[psyclone]

I'd bet with persistence and say no to a freeze. There's a huge distance between temps running somewhat less than normal and a freeze. Odds are high that we end up somewhere in that zone (below normal but above freezing).

[psyclone]

Torch warning
start date: 1-10
expiration: None

At least we can discontinue the torch headlines. An end date wasn't apparent at the outset.

[TheStormExpert]

Ok Euro...

https://i.imgur.com/44GG7YL.png

https://i.imgur.com/y4fEuyN.png

Gotta love the Euro in its long range. Just like during hurricane season it is notorious for huge swings.

[gatorcane]

Ok Euro...

https://i.imgur.com/44GG7YL.png

https://i.imgur.com/y4fEuyN.png

Gotta love the Euro in its long range. Just like during hurricane season it is notorious for huge swings.

Looks like new Euro run out develops a 1004MB low at the base of the long-wave trough off the SE US. Looks even colder for Florida this run!

Can’t tell if there is any wintry precip on that run but there just might be.

Timeframe is coming in, 192 hours.

[SFLcane]

Ok Euro...

https://i.imgur.com/44GG7YL.png

https://i.imgur.com/y4fEuyN.png

Gotta love the Euro in its long range. Just like during hurricane season it is notorious for huge swings.

Looks like new Euro run out develops a 1004MB low at the base of the long-wave trough off the SE US. Looks even colder for Florida this run!

Can’t tell if there is any wintry precip on that run but there just might be.

Timeframe is coming in, 192 hours.

Looks like its trended warmer for SFL.

[northjaxpro]

Ok Euro...

https://i.imgur.com/44GG7YL.png

https://i.imgur.com/y4fEuyN.png

Gotta love the Euro in its long range. Just like during hurricane season it is notorious for huge swings.

Looks like new Euro run out develops a 1004MB low at the base of the long-wave trough off the SE US. Looks even colder for Florida this run!

Can’t tell if there is any wintry precip on that run but there just might be.

Timeframe is coming in, 192 hours.

I was just getting ready to mention this in the Deep South Winter Weather thread. I will discuss this there this evening. The potential of a wintry precip event over the Southeast U.S. is a possibility, dependent upon timing and extent of the cold air intrusions and the evolution of these shortwave disturbances along the STJ.

Yes, the EURO has trended colder for next week.

[psyclone]

At least the Euro depicts temp profiles that make sense based on cold air drainage patterns in the state when it actually does get cold (freeze running down the interior western side of the peninsula). The GFS routinely shows temp patterns that never verify when cold does move in..

[northjaxpro]

At least the Euro depicts temp profiles that make sense based on cold air drainage patterns in the state when it actually does get cold (freeze running down the interior western side of the peninsula). The GFS routinely shows temp patterns that never verify when cold does move in..

Yeah, Psyclone, I agree with you about this. The GFS does the Panhandle region with cold air drainage well i.e. Crestview, but does struggle with the Nature Coast region for places like Brooksville with cold drainage.

[gatorcane]

The GEFS mean has trended colder for Florida as well each of the last three runs since 00Z. Looks like upper 30s dipping into Central Florida whereas the 00Z has mid 40s. We will see what the EPS does. Legitimate cold could be on the way next week. But as always let’s get the timeframe in some before being too sure.

[psyclone]

It looks like a protracted period of cool (but not freezing) temps is the most likely outcome. I would imagine the month still ends up somewhat above normal but not to the extent I expected a while back. And of course there is always potential for a short fused freeze threat to emerge during such a pattern...we just lack the granularity this far out to detect that. It's been a long time since the strawberry growers had to fire up the sprinklers over in Plant City...a streak I'm sure the farmers would like to remain intact.

[NDG]

The Euro yesterday had lows down to 32 deg from Orlando to Tampa for next Wednesday morning but last night's run came in more realistic in the mid to upper 30s, more in line with forecasted teleconnections.
EPS averaged low temps are warmer in the low 40s.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has trended a bit colder with widespread 30s down the peninsula