Texas Winter 2019-2020

[orangeblood]

Inside of 10 days & Euro / GFS agree somewhat. This timeframe started showing up in the various ensembles last week and has consistently been there in the 30 - 40% range, so it has some legs.

Somewhat but they still differ fairly significantly on the location/timing of upper level features though

GFS


Euro

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not sold yet on this event potential. I think the HP needs to be much stronger. I understand the dynamics of the event, but I think the HP needs to be stronger and further west.

Good news is the Euro is a bit more optimistic than the GFS. Upper levels look better and i believe the surface is colder (dont have the data.) You can see the flow is a bit better (colder) on the Euro.

Does the euro show snow for SE TX?

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble has a bit less members showing snow than the 6z....I'm rooting for you Austin!

[wxman22]

Im not sold yet on this event potential. I think the HP needs to be much stronger. I understand the dynamics of the event, but I think the HP needs to be stronger and further west.

Good news is the Euro is a bit more optimistic than the GFS. Upper levels look better and i believe the surface is colder (dont have the data.) You can see the flow is a bit better (colder) on the Euro.

Does the euro show snow for SE TX?

The Euro has a wintry mix into the northern counties of SE TX.
I agree I would like to see the air a little colder and orientated more towards the central plains also,but i like the trends lol. I'll have to see what the models are showing by this weekend before i get excited about anything.

[Portastorm]

As I told my Austin friend Haris ... I don't really believe verbatim what I'm seeing on these models, but it does show me (and us) that the pattern is changing to something more conducive for at least *someone* in Texas to see wintry weather. I know that ThunderSleetDreams has been talking about this too as have some of the rest of y'all.

Perhaps we can squeeze out a good second half of "winter" and add some serious pages to this thread. And make our friend wxman57 miserable in the process!

[orangeblood]

Welp, that is one massive run to run change on the Euro Ensemble Mean for the 10-15 day period. Much warmer, Lets hope this isn't a trend.

Temperature between 12Z run and Last nights 0Z run

[South Texas Storms]

As I told my Austin friend Haris ... I don't really believe verbatim what I'm seeing on these models, but it does show me (and us) that the pattern is changing to something more conducive for at least *someone* in Texas to see wintry weather. I know that ThunderSleetDreams has been talking about this too as have some of the rest of y'all.

Perhaps we can squeeze out a good second half of "winter" and add some serious pages to this thread. And make our friend wxman57 miserable in the process!

Yes indeed Porta! I was just discussing with my long-range coworker Arctic Thunder and we are in agreement that late January into February will feature a favorable weather pattern for winter weather lovers in Texas. Bring it on!

[Brent]

Welp, that is one massive run to run change on the Euro Ensemble Mean for the 10-15 day period. Much warmer, Lets hope this isn't a trend.

Temperature between 12Z run and Last nights 0Z run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850_c_dprog/1579003200/1580148000-l1cie1KnYBE.png

Ugh I hope not

[orangeblood]

Welp, that is one massive run to run change on the Euro Ensemble Mean for the 10-15 day period. Much warmer, Lets hope this isn't a trend.

Temperature between 12Z run and Last nights 0Z run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850_c_dprog/1579003200/1580148000-l1cie1KnYBE.png

Ugh I hope not

Yep, these models have been notorious the past few years (around Mid-Jan) of forecasting long term cold like this and then completely abandoning it as we get closer. Let's hope this is a one time glitch on the Euro ENS

[Ralph's Weather]

Im not sold yet on this event potential. I think the HP needs to be much stronger. I understand the dynamics of the event, but I think the HP needs to be stronger and further west.

Good news is the Euro is a bit more optimistic than the GFS. Upper levels look better and i believe the surface is colder (dont have the data.) You can see the flow is a bit better (colder) on the Euro.

Does the euro show snow for SE TX?

For the E and SE TX we will need to see a surface low form near the Gulf Coast to kick moisture into the cold air. Further west the STJ alone will likely be enough if the high is to the NE of TX. I do not think we at all want a stronger high as that will dry us all out. At 1040 over the Midwest it is already drying the E half of the state out. I like its position as depicted currently.

[Cerlin]

With greater amounts of cold in the upcoming weeks, a slow moving ULL could seriously overperform for Texas and drop some nice wintry weather.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Well, I'm off to the U.S.-Canadian border to perform some wall reinforcements. I should be done by this weekend, but the data won't go into the models until early next week.

Welp, that is one massive run to run change on the Euro Ensemble Mean for the 10-15 day period. Much warmer, Lets hope this isn't a trend.

Temperature between 12Z run and Last nights 0Z run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850_c_dprog/1579003200/1580148000-l1cie1KnYBE.png

Coincidence? I think not.

[rwfromkansas]

Somehow I doubt the Euro is a fluke. Expect other models to get warmer. I'm so cynical now I just can't buy it until it's actually starting to get colder.

[starsfan65]

Somehow I doubt the Euro is a fluke. Expect other models to get warmer. I'm so cynical now I just can't buy it until it's actually starting to get colder.

doubt it?

[Haris]

Somehow I doubt the Euro is a fluke. Expect other models to get warmer. I'm so cynical now I just can't buy it until it's actually starting to get colder.

I get it and I feel the same. We’ve been through this many times before and it doesn’t happen. Maybe this curse ends though once and for all!

My bet is on this getting delayed to mid February, then March, then ... well... gone.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not sold yet on this event potential. I think the HP needs to be much stronger. I understand the dynamics of the event, but I think the HP needs to be stronger and further west.

Good news is the Euro is a bit more optimistic than the GFS. Upper levels look better and i believe the surface is colder (dont have the data.) You can see the flow is a bit better (colder) on the Euro.

Does the euro show snow for SE TX?

For the E and SE TX we will need to see a surface low form near the Gulf Coast to kick moisture into the cold air. Further west the STJ alone will likely be enough if the high is to the NE of TX. I do not think we at all want a stronger high as that will dry us all out. At 1040 over the Midwest it is already drying the E half of the state out. I like its position as depicted currently.

So right now, the GFS has has moisture all the way up to the 200 mb layer. At this point, i think a bigger high would make me feel a bit more comfortable the event will occur

[Brent]

[Brent]

TWC app

[harp]

The precip still dries up too quickly before it reaches me in Louisiana....

[Cerlin]

Euro called for snow when there wasn’t for DFW a few weeks ago and was also one of the last models to pick up on the snow on Saturday. Not gonna hedge my bets on that one yet