Texas Winter 2019-2020

[CaptinCrunch]

I think this years severe weather season could be quite volatile unfortunately. Late cold fronts and an active SJS with that warm moist air may bring an active tornado season for the U.S

[Yukon Cornelius]

The CPC 6-10 day precip outlook has the highest probability bullseye from central Oklahoma, south through DFW, south through San Antonio.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Almost the whole county above on temps. Crazy

[bubba hotep]

The 12z super ensemble winter weather % at DFW is down close to ZERO for the next two weeks...

[Haris]

Near Seattle area.


[

[Brent]

Near Seattle area.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/G07zNkh/1-E27-CA91-37-EC-47-D4-8808-964-CB4161-D96.jpg [/url]
[

They get all the snow lately lol

The 12z super ensemble winter weather % at DFW is down close to ZERO for the next two weeks...

Don't worry February will save us

[aggiecutter]

Near Seattle area.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/G07zNkh/1-E27-CA91-37-EC-47-D4-8808-964-CB4161-D96.jpg [/url]
[

Kinda looks like Scenic SW Austin to me.

[Haris]

Near Seattle area.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/G07zNkh/1-E27-CA91-37-EC-47-D4-8808-964-CB4161-D96.jpg [/url]
[

Kinda looks like Scenic SW Austin to me.

LOL. I wish...

[Tammie]

Check out Wednesday morning...

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191111
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
511 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

Sunday is off to a cold start with an arctic airmass settling into
the Southern Plains. Most areas will begin the day within a few
degrees of freezing with wind chill values in the 20s. With dry
air in place, temperatures will warm rather quickly throughout
the day given ample insolation, and highs are expected to reach
the low to mid 50s. The only cloud cover will consist of some
passing cirrus clouds later this afternoon and evening associated
with a subtle progressive shortwave. This cloud cover is not
expected to have a noticeable effect on temperatures today or
tonight.

With light winds, low dewpoints, and mostly clear skies,
temperatures should cool rapidly again tonight with most of the
CWA falling to near or below freezing. On Monday, a surface ridge
axis will nudge its way into northeastern Texas. This will keep
surface flow northerly in North Texas, while parts of Central
Texas see winds veer to the southeast. The result should be a
gradient of highs near 60 across our southwest to near 50 across
our northeast. No rain is expected through Monday with the area
remaining devoid of moisture.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 225 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/
/Monday through Next Weekend/

After a rain/storm-free start to the work week, precipitation
chances will steadily increase around mid-week (Wednesday and
Thursday). There will be a low risk for a rain/snow mix, mainly
across Northeast Texas, but at this juncture, significant
accumulations of snow or ice are NOT expected. Precipitation
chances diminish Friday with what should be a rain/storm-free
final weekend of January.

North and Central Texas should be void of any precipitation to
start the work week as surface high pressure dominates the
synoptic scale weather picture. Modest CAA will continue across most
of the area as northerly to northeasterly breezes persist. This
will lead to afternoon temperatures a few degrees below normal
values on Monday. The exception may be across parts of the
northern Big Country and western North Texas where north winds
will be a tad lighter. Monday night appears as if it will still
remain cold with many sites near or just below the "freezing"
mark. Some patchy frost will be possible, especially for the
sheltered regions of North and Central Texas. Tuesday remains a
bit of a tricky forecast as model guidance offers varying
solutions. What transpires Tuesday will be very important for
Wednesday`s precipitation chances. What I am confident in is that
the daylight hours on Tuesday will remain precipitation-free. The
latest NAM and to some degree the Canadian advertise that a
shallow, cold airmass will slip southward through the Ozarks and
ease into North Texas from the northeast. While the GFS does
indicate cold FROPA, it`s not nearly to the degree of the
NAM/Canadian. I`ll hedge toward the colder solutions given that
these shallow, cold airmasses tend to sneak a bit farther to the
south than indicated in coarser guidance.

I`ve nudged temperatures down by a few degrees for parts of the
CWA, with the coldest conditions across Northeast Texas, where
temperatures may hold steady in the mid 40s. Elsewhere, the
mercury should rise into the low 50s. With a shallow layer of cold
air expected to be in place, we`ll likely have enough ascent along
this surface for clouds and precipitation (perhaps as early as
Tuesday evening across the Hill Country) as southerly flow level
flow ramps up ahead of the next upper trough. Model guidance
continues to trend upward with regard to these rain chances late
Tuesday into Wednesday and given that the isentropic ascent now
appears to be stronger than previously thought over the cooler
surface airmass, higher PoPs seem warranted. If the cold airmass
does not advance as far south as currently thought, then current
PoPs may be overdone. Regardless, the airmass will be a little
moisture deficient, and I expect that any precipitation amounts
will remain light, despite 50 and 60 PoPs late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

While we will be underneath the influence of a WAA regime aloft,
there appears to be a chance for some wintry precipitation on
Wednesday morning, mainly across Northeast Texas. Forecast
soundings suggest that enough evaporative cooling may occur near
and northeast of a Sulphur Springs to Bonham line to allow for a
few snow flakes or sleet pellets to mix in with light rain. At
this time, I expect that amounts will be light and this should
mitigate any significant impacts due to winter weather. We`ll
refine this forecast as we get closer. Any winter precipitation
should transition to just a cold rain by the afternoon hours.
Wednesday will be quite cool with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
below normal and it`ll certainly feel dreary with mostly cloudy
skies.

Increased WAA should take place as our next upper trough evolves
and translates to the east across North and Central Texas. In
addition, a more bonafide front (though possibly Pacific in
nature) will slide to the east through the day on Thursday. With
the warm conveyor strengthening, we`ll likely see our most
widespread rain chances on Thursday with current PoPs ranging
between 60 and 70 percent. The increase in moisture coupled with the
cooler air aloft should mean that some instability sufficient for
storms will develop. I`ll continue to carry a mention of isolated
thunderstorms for most locales Thursday afternoon. Rainfall
amounts should be heftier during this time period mostly thanks to
deeper convection. Severe weather does not appear likely as
instability will still remain on the low side.

Rain/isolated storms should exit East Texas Friday morning with
slowly clearing skies ensuing shortly thereafter. Friday`s
temperatures are tricky as the magnitude of CAA is a little
unknown. If surface winds attain a bit more of a westerly
component, it`s quite possible that downsloping will support
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. This is uncertain and as
a result, I`ll lean heavily on blended guidance which is a touch
cooler with temperatures largely in the low to mid 50s and low
60s. Next weekend looks mostly rain/storm free, though we`ll need
to watch for any return flow across Central Texas which could
result in some low rain/storm chances. For now, I`ll hedge toward
a rain/storm-free forecast with near to above normal afternoon
high temperatures for most areas.

Bain

[gpsnowman]

Today is the day the daily averages start their slow climb to summer death heat I believe, give or take a day or two. Never like seeing winter slowly erode day after day. The rest of January is obviously dead but we have February and early March to score something. 2015 had three winter events in a 10 day span late Feb to early March. Late Feb 2003 had a big sleet event that lasted a few days. Grasping at straws but desperation will do that.

I think I will drown my sorrows with beer and football today. Just what the doctor ordered.

[jasons2k]

The front cooled us down here in SE Texas, but pretty minor for January. I'm not supposed to even hit freezing. Some of the trees are already starting to bloom too. Aside from a freeze back in November, this has been the winter without a winter for us.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Talking with some friends across the state and signs of spring are already starting to show up. Winter = dead

[Cerlin]

I’ll hold off on calling winter dead until after the first week of February, but this is a little depressing. Also, i don’t understand why I keep seeing so much talk about potential snow on Wednesday all over Twitter and various areas. I’m seeing little to no model support for it? Only the NAM has even a bit of stuff and it looks quite bleak anyway. Some people are real desperate.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'll take my chances on relying on the 3 week period after Valentines Day. We tend to much more dynamic systems with cold air still available to be pulled in from the north during late winter. January is typically dry and to get the rain we have had lately we have to be abnormally warm. I cannot think of the last decent January snow storm down here.

[bubba hotep]

We needed the MJO to shake up the pattern but this pulse was through the warm phases. Now, it looks like it might not rotate through 8/1 but instead might fade before pulsing back over the Maritime Continent. If that happens, depending on phase speed, we may be punting the next 3 weeks.

[CaptinCrunch]

16F degrees @ kickoff for the Chiefs vs Titans game....

Cloudy and 56 for the late game Packers @ 49ers

[rwfromkansas]

The signs for February aren’t great. I’m calling it. If we get a surprise, great. Otherwise, a good severe weather season will help.

[Brent]

This has been the strangest winter I've ever seen it's not even snowing where it should be. I don't know what is to come in February but I'll believe it when I see it as far as a better winter pattern

[gpsnowman]

This has been the strangest winter I've ever seen it's not even snowing where it should be. I don't know what is to come in February but I'll believe it when I see it as far as a better winter pattern

I agree. Very puzzling to say the least. And not just here in Texas, the east coast especially. We should be used to underperforming winters here.I mean a 74 in Boston just days ago blew my mind. The region is WELL below snowfall averages. Just in the last few days the upper Midwest has experienced a true arctic outbreak for the first time but quickly warms up this week. We are living in winter bizarro world. It sucks.

[Yukon Cornelius]

This has been the strangest winter I've ever seen it's not even snowing where it should be. I don't know what is to come in February but I'll believe it when I see it as far as a better winter pattern

I agree. I can deal with no snow since that is the norm but outside of fall it hasn’t even been really that cold this year. Just another hyped up non performing winter.

[Brent]

This has been the strangest winter I've ever seen it's not even snowing where it should be. I don't know what is to come in February but I'll believe it when I see it as far as a better winter pattern

I agree. I can deal with no snow since that is the norm but outside of fall it hasn’t even been really that cold this year. Just another hyped up non performing winter.

Honestly it's not even about Texas there are many many places in the country way below normal on snow and cold going back to what gpsnowman said

In some ways I can't believe met winter is over half over now... It just hasn't felt like a normal winter to me and now March is closer than December 1