Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Possible SFL bust alert? Cold front is through MIA, with very little immediate change in temperature. NWS Miami also says models backed down on bringing the surge of northerly winds today/tonight, and now says best cold air advection to occur late tomorrow (Tuesday).

Seems to me a lot is riding on timing/placement/strength of this surface low......I don't know that I would want to place a wager on anything here.

[boca]

I gave up on winter this year it’s a complete bust at least in SE Florida.

[psyclone]

No complaining, this is as good (or bad, depending on perspective) as it gets. At least we're not reverting back to a torch long term. Enjoy!

[gatorcane]

Tomorrow night should be interesting. Looks like several models even outside the NAM (which hasn’t budged by the way on the freeze) show freezing temps nosing down the western side of peninsula Florida. We may just see another downward adjustment of temps by NWS which will put some areas of Central Florida very close if at freezing. Cold night in store for tomorrow

[psyclone]

Arcadia has 32 for a low in the current iteration of the NWS forecast

[northjaxpro]

Currently 38.4 degrees here at the home station with wind light out of the north around 6 mph. Low temperature tonight is forecast to be at 29 degrees by sunrise. Strong cold advection continues, Looks like temos will drop into the upper 20s in interior locales. So, it definitely could see the coldest tenps thus far this season the next couple of mornings. It has been since January 5, 2018. was when the very last time tge mercury here measured air temperature below 30 F. That is how long we have been that cold here in Northeast Florida.

[ronjon]

Another short wave diving down all the way into south Florida today bringing zero degrees C at 850 mb down into south-central peninsula. Wednesday am temps could approach freezing as far south as southern DeSoto county along the west half of Florida. Yesterday's suite of meso models showed freezing line far south over the western half of the peninsula. Anybody else having problems accessing Levi's site this am on the models?

[boca]

Yes Levi’s site is down.

[northjaxpro]

Just missed a freeze here at the home station this morning as it bottomed out at 33.2 degrees. It did get below freezing at Jax Cecil Commerce in Western Duval County this morning, and areas inland west of the Saint Johns River did get at or below freezing. Gainesville, Lake City areas had a freeze this morming.

Tonight everyone will see the coldest air we have seen in this area since January 5, 2018. It will be colder as a upper trough amplifes sharply later today and reinforcing the modified polar air mass across the region. Brisk NW wind and strong cold advection will only have max temps only reaching the upper 40s across Northeast Florida today, despite plenty of sunshine. Hard Freeze expected tonight over the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley regions. Temps will drop into the mid-upper 20s in the areas tomorrow morning.

Across Northeast Florida, interior areas just north and west of the Saint Johns River will see temps drop into the upper 20s while Downtown Jax and areas to the coast will see temps from 30-34 degrees.

The strong NNW flow will be entrenched over the peninsula for the next 36 hours, a very good component to drive cold, dry continental air deep down into peninsula Florida.

Freeze warnings posted all the way to the I-4 corridor and down into the West Central peninsula.

Heading off to work, will check in later regarding tonight's very cold night potential over the peninsula...

[northjaxpro]

GFS 12Z tomorrow morning




NAM 12Z tomorrow morning



NAM probably too cold for their projections across interior South Florida, but temps down into upper 30s north and west of Lake O I definitely can see possible in the morning. GFS however, more realistic with its temps projections for me in the morning, although I see potential Hard Freeze of mid-upper 20s in areas of Big Bend and Suwannee River region in the morning..

[psyclone]

That nam configuration makes sense. It is remarkable how cold it can get in interior west central and even southwest florida. Eastern Hillsborough down to through Hardee/Highlands/Desoto/eastern Charlotte/Glades are a secondary "freeze belt" and they're a big ag region. Fortunately it might not get quite cold enough to do damage but a close shave for sure. And the strawberry farmers will need to fire up the sprinklers tonight. Things have definitely trended colder compared to a few days ago.

[northjaxpro]

That nam configuration makes sense. It is remarkable how cold it can get in interior west central and even southwest florida. Eastern Hillsborough down to through Hardee/Highlands/Desoto/eastern Charlotte/Glades are a secondary "freeze belt" and they're a big ag region. Fortunately it might not get quite cold enough to do damage but a close shave for sure. And the strawberry farmers will need to fire up the sprinklers tonight. Things have definitely trended colder compared to a few days ago.

Yeah, the NAM snuffed out the strong NNW flow, and the strength of shortwave upper disturbance currently diving down into Southeast GA to amplify the base of the upper trough and the strength of the Low Pressure area just Northeast of the NW Bahamas the past couple of days for the type of readings it is forecasting for tomorrow morning. It indeed is not out of the realm of possibility for the temps to get very cold in those areas you specified in your post above Psyclone. Tonight will be quite interesting to see just how cold it is going to get, especially further down into the peninsula.

[psyclone]

It would actually be a nice crisp football type weather day if we could just shave 20mph off the wind. It's the wind that always ruins the chill. I remember growing up in the north and vastly preferring a calm 0 degree day vs a windy day in the 20's. It's the same concept here even with a much milder regime.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and Euro both suggest holding off on winter cancel posts with deep troughiness returning come Feb.

[ronjon]

The GFS and Euro both suggest holding off on winter cancel posts with deep troughiness returning come Feb.

Indeed - CPC's 3-4 week forecast - east half of country deep chill. With that pattern, east coast may finally see a major noreaster snow storm.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

[psyclone]

The GFS and Euro both suggest holding off on winter cancel posts with deep troughiness returning come Feb.

It better get crackin'. extended shows the cannon reloading up in Alaska so maybe we get a Feb blast but now that we're a month past the solstice the screws are really turning. My gut tells me peak winter is likely tonight...,but my gut is kinda hit or miss.. One thing that does favor late winter chill is noreaster climo, which can deliver the goods well into March.

[ronjon]

That nam configuration makes sense. It is remarkable how cold it can get in interior west central and even southwest florida. Eastern Hillsborough down to through Hardee/Highlands/Desoto/eastern Charlotte/Glades are a secondary "freeze belt" and they're a big ag region. Fortunately it might not get quite cold enough to do damage but a close shave for sure. And the strawberry farmers will need to fire up the sprinklers tonight. Things have definitely trended colder compared to a few days ago.

Yeah, the NAM snuffed out the strong NNW flow, and the strength of shortwave upper disturbance currently diving down into Southeast GA to amplify the base of the upper trough and the strength of the Low Pressure area just Northeast of the NW Bahamas the past couple of days for the type of readings it is forecasting for tomorrow morning. It indeed is not out of the realm of possibility for the temps to get very cold in those areas you specified in your post above Psyclone. Tonight will be quite interesting to see just how cold it is going to get, especially further down into the peninsula.

Mesoscale models coming in colder:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2020012112&fh=24
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2020012112&fh=6

[northjaxpro]

Tomorrow morning (1/22/2020 ) 12Z (7:00 a.m.) forecast low temperature from the state NWS WFOs for locales within their forecast zones:

Jacksonville WFO

Jacksonville 28
Alma, GA 25
Saint Augustine 36
Gainesville 25
Ocala 26


Tallahassee WFO

Panama City 30
Dothan 26
Albany 25
Valdosta, GA 26
Cross City 24
Apalachicola 31


Tampa WFO

Tampa 34
Fort Myers 36
Saint Petersburg 34
Sarasota 35
Brooksville 29

Melbourne WFO ( updated 5 p.m.)


Daytona Beach 37
Orlando (Intl Arpt) 35
Melbourne 41
Vero Beach 42
Leesburg 31
Fort Pierce 42


Miami WFO

West Palm Beach 42
Fort Lauderdale 45
Miami 44
Naples 38

Key West WFO


Key West 50
Marathon 48

[ronjon]

Current dew points certainly supporting very cold temps tonight - 23 F in Crystal River and Sebring, 24 F in Tampa.

https://www.weatherwx.com/forecast.php?config=&forecast=pass&pass=currentwx&usecountry=us&region=&useplace=&usestate=fl&plot=dewpt&period=&usemetric=0&dpp=0

[psyclone]

Ruskin has bumped overnight lows and opted not to issue freeze warnings south of Pasco county. they pushed my numbers up 3 degrees to 37. St Pete probably won't go below 40 if their latest estimates are accurate