Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Psyclone that is a big bump up by Ruskin. Earlier they had 34 for St. Pete. That will be interesting to see how that shakes down tonight there.

[northjaxpro]

Tonight will really be fascinating monitoring the minimum temperatures. We have the perfect NNW wind projectory later tonight into tomorrow morning, and synoptic set-up. We have a strong Polar High, 1040 mb near Memphis, TN currently from the north building in, and intensifying Low Pressure area just northeast of the NW Bahamas. This will really drive that modified polar air deep into the Florida peninsula. It is not too often, especially in recent years. We have not had this set-up often during the heart of winter as we all know across the region. Likely the coldest night in more than 2 years coming for most in the state by the time of sunrise, around 7 a.m. tomorrow morning.

[AJC3]

Current dew points certainly supporting very cold temps tonight - 23 F in Crystal River and Sebring, 24 F in Tampa.

https://www.weatherwx.com/forecast.php?config=&forecast=pass&pass=currentwx&usecountry=us&region=&useplace=&usestate=fl&plot=dewpt&period=&usemetric=0&dpp=0

Be careful with that dash, sir.

[gatorcane]

00Z HRRR with the freeze line into Tampa and brushing Northern Pinellas. Looks like it has trended some in bringing the freeze line a bit more away from the coast:

[ronjon]

Current dew points certainly supporting very cold temps tonight - 23 F in Crystal River and Sebring, 24 F in Tampa.

https://www.weatherwx.com/forecast.php?config=&forecast=pass&pass=currentwx&usecountry=us&region=&useplace=&usestate=fl&plot=dewpt&period=&usemetric=0&dpp=0

Be careful with that dash, sir.

Hahaha...I'll keep that in mind. But left a space between the dash and number...so all's good!

[ronjon]

FAWN's predicted minimum temps. Tap on forecasted 12 hr min temps.

https://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu

[gatorcane]

FAWN's predicted minimum temps. Tap on forecasted 12 hr min temps.

https://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu

Looks like FAWN is generally colder for Central Florida by about 3-5 degrees from what NWS is forecasting.

[AJC3]

FAWN's predicted minimum temps. Tap on forecasted 12 hr min temps.

https://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu

Looks like FAWN is generally colder for Central Florida by about 3-5 degrees from what NWS is forecasting.

That's nearly always the case when compared to the airports, given their instrumentation siting is in rural areas.
It's pretty much the reason FAWN was developed.

[AJC3]

NAM 72 hour trend for 2M temps/10M winds at 7AM tomorrow morning...

https://i.imgur.com/1tz2yXP.mp4

[gatorcane]

NAM 72 hour trend for 2M temps/10M winds at 7AM tomorrow morning...

https://i.imgur.com/1tz2yXP.mp4

Warming indeed. Finally “folding” it appears.

[psyclone]

Something I've always been intrigued by is the extent to which cold/dry (and therefore more dense) air amplifies sound. The traffic sound is drastically different and louder when it's cold. I always tell people I can not only feel the temperature I can hear it (which inevitably yields some rather strange looks). Our usual warm/humid base state really muffles sound. Chilly night out there for sure...and the noise reflects that.

[northjaxpro]

I am about to turn in for the evening, but an interesting night already with very cold airmass settling across the region. As I discussed earlier, we have about as perfect a set-up to drive cold air deep into the peninsula this evening and into the overnight as a very deep NNW flow is entrenched across the region. Combine that with brisk wind and wind chill advisories are posted now statewide as of this hour, to go along with the Hard Freeze Warnings now posted for inland Northeast Florida and the areas west across the Suwannee River Valley and Big Bend regions. Freeze Warnings elsewhere across the remainder of North Florida and areas extending south to the I-4 corridor across interior Central Florida away from the immediate Space Coast locales and extending west to the Nature Coast along the West Central peninsula.

Currently just shy of 10 p.m, and the mercury here at the home station now currently stands just above freezing, 33.8 degrees. We likely will be below freezing most definitely by midnight here. Current dewpoints across Northeast Florida range from the upper teens to the lower 20s, and wind is blowing north 7 mph, which measures a current wind chill index at 28 degrees. The forecast is for wind chill indices across Northeast Florida to be in the mid teens to near 20F inland and from lower to mid 20s along the coast. The forecast temperature here at my home locale near Jax Int'l Airport and the NWS JAX WFO, is forecast to drop to 28F. I think that will get achieved by the time I prepare to leave out for the office in the morning.

Impressive brief cold spell indeed. Kudos to the NAM for sniffing out all of this pretty well in the short range, and the model had a great handle on this synoptic set-up, with the strength and location of the deepening Low Pressure system being exactly where the model had it initially forecasted to develop, which it is currently just northeast of the NW Bahamas. It also correctly showed the very cold potential 36-48 hours ago and the magnitude of the strong cold advection pouring into the peninsula on NNW flow with freeze line dipping deep into the Florida peninsula!

[NDG]

:uarrow: Yep, big differences between the GFS and Euro continue for Wednesday morning lows, the reason for it is that the Euro shows a stronger low pressure developing just east of the northern Bahamas and to move very slowly, showing surface winds to be more out of the NNW around the low pressure area all the way down to SE FL. The GFS shows a weaker low pressure area and it ejects it quicker than the Euro so it shows the winds becoming more out of the NNE across east central FL down to S FL, off of the warm Atlantic Ocean Wednesday morning.
The Euro shows low to mid 40s in SE FL Wed AM, if it was to be correct. While the GFS shows upper 50s to low 60s.

https://i.imgur.com/DyOZM8q.png
https://i.imgur.com/Quz34zU.png

I’m in Miami this morning, brrr!! The Euro nailed it 5 days ago. Even for me is cold because of how colder the wind is making it feel like out there. The streets were free of Pedestrians last night, very strange sight.
I just checked my thermometer back in my area of Orlando is 35 degrees. The NE winds at h925 saved Orlando and sections along the northern east coast from a freeze.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning NDG. It is a very cold morning statewide and the north wind really has that bite to it out there. I literally froze being out there for just a few minutes a short time ago. So far , the lowest it has gotten here at my home station is 31.6 degrees. The temp currently is 32.7 degrees. It strangely has warmed a degree in the past hour. Wind chill indices in the upper teens to low 20s currently across Northeast Florida.

Looks like the freeze line is inching just about near the Interstate 4 corridor.I will post a full minimum low temp for locales around the state after the 7 a.m. report becomes official. But, yes sir 42F in Miami is quite cold being out near Key Biscayne this morning!!!

[ronjon]

Wow a couple of stations from FAWNs network just west of Lake O down to 32 F this am. Very cold for south Florida!

https://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu

[northjaxpro]

7: 00 a.m. obs currently:

Miami, International Airport 40F
Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport 40F
Homestead Air Reserve Base 39F
West Palm Beach International Airport 41F

It has been a quite some time ago seeing readings this cold down in extreme Southeast Florida this morning!

[Patrick99]

Unofficially, 41 was the low for me this AM. I still won't remember one chilly morning a couple months from now, but it is indeed fairly chilly, especially with that screaming NW wind.

It is odd to see that surface low in the Bahamas, this time of year. Not sure I've really seen such a thing.

[NDG]

Is not too often you see Miami just about as cold as Daytona Beach & St Augustine.

[northjaxpro]

Actually Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport bottomed out at 38 degrees this morning, the coldest ob I found across Southeast Florida. Impressive!

Also, the Nature Coast region was colder than my.locale this morninģ. Freezing temps this morning fom Crystal River, 32 degrees, to Brooksville. Brooksville bottomed out at 29 degrees this morning. Plant City bottomed out at 32 degrees at 7a.m.. and Tampa Exec Airport also checked in at 32 degrees.

Crestview, ole' reliable cold drainage locale in the Panhandle, always can be trusted to deliver being the coldest in the state, indeed checked in with 22 degrees officially.

I am headed off to the office and I will.post more on this morning's brief, but very cold spell across the peninsula.

My home station shows the low temperature bottomed out 31.3 degrees here. This is only just the second freeze of this season, but we did not measure below 30 degrees. So for now, that streak continues for my location. My home weather station has not measured a temperature below 30 degrees since January 5, 2018 when 28 degrees was measured that day here.

More later...

[SFLcane]

Wow! Very impressive artic airmass indeed across SFL 38 degrees at the house in Sunrise. Nam not so crazy now lol.