Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Ralph's Weather]

Today has been a cold drizzly day with tempers in the low 40s.

[harp]

Another tease for Louisiana on the 18Z GFS....

[northjaxpro]

What an extremely pathetic winter this is turning into....nothing is breaking our way! Now it appears almost all factors for cold aren't showing up 1) No SSW likely 2) MJO is now skipping the cold 1-2-3 phases and swinging back through warm 3) and the big kick in the you know what - despite the massive AAM spike, the high latitude westerlies are not easing . Maybe an brief cold shot but nothing appears sustainable!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

The MJO pulse not going into Phases 1-2-3 I believe may have killed our best hope of seeing true winter cold going into February, especially the Eastern CONUS. I have to admit I thought the MJO would flip the pattern. That does not seem to be in the cards at this juncture.

[harp]

What an extremely pathetic winter this is turning into....nothing is breaking our way! Now it appears almost all factors for cold aren't showing up 1) No SSW likely 2) MJO is now skipping the cold 1-2-3 phases and swinging back through warm 3) and the big kick in the you know what - despite the massive AAM spike, the high latitude westerlies are not easing . Maybe an brief cold shot but nothing appears sustainable!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

The MJO pulse not going into Phases 1-2-3 I believe may have killed our best hope of seeing true winter cold going into February, especially the Eastern CONUS. I have to admit I thought the MJO would flip the pattern. That does not seem to be in the cards at this juncture.

Take a look at the 18Z GFS. I know, I know, it's la la land, but still interesting....

[Brent]

Lock it in since DFW is blanked

[northjaxpro]

Lock it in since DFW is blanked

https://i.ibb.co/DDd8Mc2/gfs-asnow-scus-59.png

Well Harp, looking at the GEFS forecast of - PNA would definitely favor an active Southern Jet Stream. However It is forecasting for a big spike with the NAO to go positive by the start of the second week of February. I just do not see the true polar air plunging that far south. It has not for the most part all winter long to this point. Maybe for a change the GEFS ensembles may be off with its teleconnections forecast. I doubt that will be the case though. We will see.

[TheProfessor]

Can we just talk about absurd the 18z GFS is. 10 degrees lows all the way down to lake Pontchartrain, single digits in southwest Mississippi, near zero temps in Alabama. Even with ice and snow on the ground that's beyond crazy. That'd cripple the South. Thankfully that's 300 hours out from now.

Anyways I hate ice storms, and I'd absolutely hate the storm that the 18z GFS is showing. Because of this it will probably happen

[harp]

Can we just talk about absurd the 18z GFS is. 10 degrees lows all the way down to lake Pontchartrain, single digits in southwest Mississippi, near zero temps in Alabama. Even with ice and snow on the ground that's beyond crazy. That'd cripple the South. Thankfully that's 300 hours out from now.

Anyways I hate ice storms, and I'd absolutely hate the storm that the 18z GFS is showing. Because of this it will probably happen

I think you and I are in the same area. We both know this was a one time rogue run and will be gone on tonight's run.

[TheProfessor]

Can we just talk about absurd the 18z GFS is. 10 degrees lows all the way down to lake Pontchartrain, single digits in southwest Mississippi, near zero temps in Alabama. Even with ice and snow on the ground that's beyond crazy. That'd cripple the South. Thankfully that's 300 hours out from now.

Anyways I hate ice storms, and I'd absolutely hate the storm that the 18z GFS is showing. Because of this it will probably happen

I think you and I are in the same area. We both know this was a one time rogue run and will be gone on tonight's run.

Oh definitely, but I do think you could get a set up like this further north and west in Texas if you can get a slightly negative PNA along with a slightly positive NAO. Of course if we get any wintery weather down here it will probably be ice since I hate it lol.

[TheProfessor]

In fact the teleconnection forecast as of right now is suggesting something closer to neutral for both the PNA and NAO maybe slightly negative and positive respectively. Definitely something to watch. I could see a storm like this happening, just probably not in the location the 18z GFS has it.

[harp]

In fact the teleconnection forecast as of right now is suggesting something closer to neutral for both the PNA and NAO maybe slightly negative and positive respectively. Definitely something to watch. I could see a storm like this happening, just probably not in the location the 18z GFS has it.

Isn't Alaska loaded with bitter cold air right now?

[TheProfessor]

In fact the teleconnection forecast as of right now is suggesting something closer to neutral for both the PNA and NAO maybe slightly negative and positive respectively. Definitely something to watch. I could see a storm like this happening, just probably not in the location the 18z GFS has it.

Isn't Alaska loaded with bitter cold air right now?

It is, but we will probably need to get a negative EPO to filter some of that cold into western and west-central Canada. Right now it is forecasted to go slightly negative so it could be possible. Once the cold stacks up in our source region(western and west central Canada) then we could tap into that cold if you can get a trough to set up in the western plains.

[Texas Snow]

Lock it in since DFW is blanked

https://i.ibb.co/DDd8Mc2/gfs-asnow-scus-59.png

For those looking for a ray of hope, the timing of this makes sense. The last time i booked a tent campsite way ahead of time in February was 5 or 6 years ago. Now If you’re flexible, then camping in February can sometimes be amazing with relatively warm days and only cool nights but nothing frigid.

So I decided to book a campsite this Feb because we have a couple families going and we just roll the dice if this weekend would be in the 50s or 60s (or 70’s) with lows in the thirties to 40s (or 50’s) which is fine.

The weekend we booked this year? Yep the one on this map.

The result of the last plan ahead camping trip 5 or 6 years ago? Never went. Snowed in north Texas so we stayed home went sledding and had a MASSIVE snowball fight.

Keep an eye on this one

[Texas Snow]

Well this NWS image of a little sleet mixed in rain tomorrow in N TX keeps coming and going so you may or may not see an image above.


But I see you 0Z Gfs 162. Something to keep an eye on for the middle of next week at least...

[Brent]

Under 200 hours but DFW gets the shaft

[harp]

The 0Z GFS literally came in 50 degrees warmer for my area than the last run! LMAO!!!!

[Brent]

The 0Z GFS literally came in 50 degrees warmer for my area than the last run! LMAO!!!!

Shocker!

[TheProfessor]

No one's going to take about the crazy Canadian?

[starsfan65]

The 0Z GFS literally came in 50 degrees warmer for my area than the last run! LMAO!!!!

Shocker!

50 degrees?

[harp]

The 0Z GFS literally came in 50 degrees warmer for my area than the last run! LMAO!!!!

Shocker!

50 degrees?

Literally 50 degrees, yes! LOL! Unbelievable. Talk about one extreme to another!