Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Snowflake7]

Looks marginal for the D-FW area. Wouldn't rule out something like you saw there a few weeks ago when DFW recorded a trace of snow. Could be less than that, though. It's still a bit far out to be very confident.

Who wants snow anyhow?! I'm sick of winter. Give me bright Texas sunshine and temps in the 90s.

NO!!!! Take it back!! He didn't mean it weather gods...GIVE US SNOWWWWW

[Brent]

FWD AFD

As the front slides southward through the day there
should be a gradual transition from convective to more stratiform
precipitation. Colder air will quickly dive southward, initially
across western North Texas and into the Big Country. Low level
thermal profiles suggest that there may be some lingering WAA atop
the colder air surface and this could result in winter
precipitation across the aformentioned geographic region before
dry air shuts of precipitation. I`ll maintain a mention of winter
precipitation (Snow/Sleet/Rain) in the grids, but this risk will
be confined to areas near and northwest of an Eastland to Bowie
line. Areas southwest of this line should see a predominantly
cold rain. At this time, substantial impacts are not expected,
though there are some caveats that are discussed below. Regardless,
Wednesday will be much colder with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Breezy north winds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH appear
probable as well.

It should be noted the above scenario loosely fits some of our
winter weather patterns across North and Central Texas. Outside of
the progression of colder air southward, we`ll be watching the
evolution of the upper trough. On one hand, if the upper trough
quickly scoots eastward, it`s likely that we`ll see an end to
precip before the colder air invades. If this upper level trough
detaches and completely closes off, there could be additional lift
which would generate additional precipitation as colder air
filters southward. In addition, there would be an added dynamic
cooling component to the equation which would support more winter
precipitation over a larger area of North and Central Texas. At
this time, no need to panic or alter plans next week...just
monitor.

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

Past experience tells me the cold air will be there (aloft) that you really want with a big snow event. We need precise ejection neutral to slight negative tilt (coming out of Big Bend national Park). If full negative tilt and slight further south track could end up being a really big event.


The storm in question is right now spinning in southern Alaska with very cold air and will be flushed southward.

Of course 5 days away. Sleepless nights!

[gpsnowman]

Past experience tells me the cold air will be there (aloft) that you really want with a big snow event. We need precise ejection neutral to slight negative tilt (coming out of Big Bend national Park). If full negative tilt and slight further south track could end up being a really big event.


The storm in question is right now spinning in southern Alaska with very cold air and will be flushed southward.

Of course 5 days away. Sleepless nights!

I am all in baby!!!! Why not? It coluld be 2025 before we see another set-up like this. Snow is good.

[TheProfessor]

I think patience is needed for this system, there's a lot of kinks to work out(literally) especially in the case of the GFS where energy is all over the place(Where the Euro and Ukmet are bundling the energy more). If the GFS is correct I think you're looking at an event more similar the March 2010 snow storm than the February 2010 snow storm where a localized band sets up and dumps 6-8 inches. Now if Ntxw gets his wish and this storm can go neutral or negative tilt sooner that can most definitely change.

Edit: I forgot to add, right now I think this could be one of those events where one person had his or her year made and another one is wondering why mother nature hates them. When these kind of events happen any subtle shift in the system could be the difference between 0 and 3+ inches of snow.

[Cerlin]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_10to1/1580493600/1581141600-Zm8k1kytuXM.png

That is a sexy map.

[Brent]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_10to1/1580493600/1581141600-Zm8k1kytuXM.png

Lol well then the GFS went all in

[Brent]

12z EPS and the 18z GEFS

[Quixotic]

Who’s ready to stay up to see the 00z runs?

[Brent]

Who’s ready to stay up to see the 00z runs?

The Euro hasn't been kind to DFW yet but maybe that will change

I'm also curious to see if the GFS holds up around 1030 Euro around 1230

[Texas Snow]

But the EPS has looked favorable.

I’m not staying up till 12:30, so by morning I may look here and while catching up go through the usual roller coaster ride of “models lost it all” to the morning runs where “it’s back” and by lunch “well they lost it again”only by the evening “a blizzard may be in order, stock up on supplies”

Can’t wait! It’s better than “blowtorch for foreseeable future”

[Brent]

First up the icon

[Brent]

DFW bullseye on the GFS again

[Texas Snow]

Gfs narrower this run (just looking only at snowfall totals so far) but still puts me in the jackpot. Lots of runs to go but still like consistency.

Edit: Of course Brent posts map faster than I can type.

[Brent]

Delkus showed the GFS but went with a cold rain for the metro and said the Euro is usually more right "GFS once a year"

[Texas Snow]

Delkus showed the GFS but went with a cold rain for the metro

If my reputation was on the line I wouldn’t go hardcore on this either until way closer. Nobody but us notices when they get it wrong if it goes cold rain to snow. Predict snow in DFW and get cold rain? They bring out the pitchforks and torches.

Although I do love misses in the past where people built huge snowmen in the erring forecasters front yard in the morning and they had enough cajones to show it on their weathercast later that evening.

[Texas Snow]

Steve McCauley a few hours ago (just now seeing it)

Springtime returns to north Texas this weekend with sunshine and 60s for Saturday followed by 70s Sunday, Monday, and about half of Tuesday. A strong cold front is still on schedule to arrive Tuesday afternoon causing temperatures to fall with a light freeze in the outlying areas Wednesday morning and struggling to get into the 40s for Wednesday. Many more areas of north Texas could see a freeze by Thursday morning. But this will not be a severe cold snap.

The big question centers on the timing of the rain with this front. Presently, there is a large area of unsettled weather in the Pacific Ocean indicated by the speckly nature to the clouds across a large swath of the Central Pacific. This should organize into a major storm system and pass directly over north Texas on Wednesday. What makes this a tricky forecast is that cold air will be in place when this storm arrives, but will the cold air be deep enough to support snow or will it just spit out another cold rain event?

The American Model says SNOW, and it is going for over a half of a foot of powder across much of the DFW area. But before we get too excited, this is the 4th time the American Model has gone for significant snow across the Metroplex and it has only "kinda" verified once when Denton County picked up 1 to 4 inches of snow a few weeks ago, but the rest of us didn't see much of anything.

The European Model is going for NO SNOW in the Metroplex and holds it back to areas well to our northwest (where it usually falls). The Australian Model agrees with the Europeans and puts NO SNOW in the Metroplex and keeps it all well west of us.

The Canadian Model, however, is going for some light accumulations as is the German Model. So far the French Model is going for no snow, but it only goes out to Wednesday morning, and it would appear if we do see significant snow it would occur after 6 AM Wednesday, so we really don't know what the French Model may or may not say until its next output tomorrow.

What does the Stat Method say? Looks like I will have to run that and see if it can break the tie one way or the other.

But in any event, spring returns this weekend (especially by Sunday) and lasts through the first part of the day Tuesday followed by another quick shot at winter with biting north winds and freezing temperatures for most of north Texas by next Thursday morning.

[Cerlin]

Dumb question here, but what’s the French model? I didn’t know that existed to be honest.

[Texas Snow]

Im not familiar with it. there a bunch so who knows what specialty or accuracy it has. Add in ones from Navy and Air Force and you have a lot more tools but need to know how to use them.