Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Haris]

imagehost


Wooooooooooo

[Ntxw]

12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong

(I hope it is actually )

https://i.ibb.co/phKHvLc/sn10-acc-us-sc-8.png

It’s going towards the GFS with the convective look of the initial wave....just not seeing snow at this time. Way more DFW qpf after early Wednesday morning than prior runs, good sign! Also, 2-3 deg F colder

There is another scenario with a slower system. We don't know yet how much and how fast the cold air moves. If significantly off, initial wave could be a major ice storm for some and snow with the parent low. QPF is not the issue here. Models have drastically ramped up moisture as the period draws near, a few days ago was looking at <1" and now >1"

Storm is now entering the west coast.

[Jarodm12]

12z Euro yes I know it's bad and wrong

(I hope it is actually )

https://i.ibb.co/phKHvLc/sn10-acc-us-sc-8.png

Lol well, it looks like the euro is convinced, nah its not bad, it is just stubborn insisting that it will be too warm, so here we are at an impasse, either the euro is going to cave or the other models are going to cave to the euro, should be interesting to read our afternoon forecast discussions, and also to hear what the promets on here have to say, and if steve mccauly ever runs his stat method that should be interesting too, but im not giving up on all the other models because the euro insists that it will be too warm, and yet it is the euro that is trending with lower temps by a few degrees but still..

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is a bit colder at the surface for DFW when precipitation is moving through but there is still a significant warm layer aloft. While models tend to be too warm at the surface in these setups they tend to counter that by being too quick the cool the warm layer aloft.

[gboudx]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

I’m waiting for wxman57 to throw a pale of water on the festivities.

But I think most people are rightfully cautious because we’ve seen “slam-dunk” events woefully underperform for one reason or another. Be it a storm dig too far south, a rogue warm layer pop up, etc. And this stuff happening inside of 24 hours. 3days is like an eternity for things to change.

[EnnisTx]

Why arent there more people talking when we are within 3 days of the event, and many models are predicting what would be a major winter storm across much of norrhern texas? Am I missing something?

I’m waiting for wxman57 to throw a pale of water on the festivities.


But I think most people are rightfully cautious because we’ve seen “slam-dunk” events woefully underperform for one reason or another. Be it a storm dig too far south, a rogue warm layer pop up, etc. And this stuff happening inside of 24 hours. 3days is like an eternity for things to change.

You should never speak his name. He's the one of whom we should not speak!!

[SouthernMet]

Euro is too warm. I believe it will continue to catch up with the NAM/GFS and trend colder as we get closer to the event.

[rwfromkansas]

I have to see the Euro cave some before I get excited, but there is going to be a storm either DFW west or west of DFW, which is exciting by itself. I still think most likely DFW will just get a dusting or so but hope the GFS wins this one.

[Ralph's Weather]

I have to see the Euro cave some before I get excited, but there is going to be a storm either DFW west or west of DFW, which is exciting by itself. I still think most likely DFW will just get a dusting or so but hope the GFS wins this one.

Anyone north of a San Antonio to Lufkin line could see a dusting by Thursday morning with a sweet spot getting over a foot. Eastern areas could see sleet cut the totals significantly during the day Wed.

[Texas Snow]

Steve McCauley has emerged to see his shadow:

A major winter storm is developing off the coast of Washington and Oregon and will be moving into north Texas on Wednesday. A strong cold front will precede the arrival of this storm system and will sweep across north Texas on Tuesday, so cold air will be in place as this system moves overhead the following day.

Although we could get some sprinkles or patches of drizzle on Tuesday as the front moves through (better rain chances will be to the east and southeast of the Metroplex), the broad area of precipitation arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night which will bring all precipitation types (i.e., rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain), but not all parts of north Texas will see all these precipitation types.

The American model is still going for a multi-inch heavy snow event for ALL of the DFW area ... even forecasting a foot for western parts of Tarrant County!

The Stat Method rejects this heavy snow forecast in DFW but does call for at least some sleet, some freezing rain, some snow to move in for parts of the DFW area during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Since we are more than 24 hours out, actual amounts of each type are not reliably predictable at this point. We still have 3 days to wait for the storm to even get gere. But it will surely make today's upper 70s to low 80s seem like a distant memory as subfreezing temperatures settle in across the region by Wednesday and Thursday.

Stay tuned...especially in western parts of the area which appears to have the best chance of snowy conditions!

[rwfromkansas]

Stat method seems to show something worth mentioning but not GFS.

[Ntxw]

Steve McCauley has emerged to see his shadow:

A major winter storm is developing off the coast of Washington and Oregon and will be moving into north Texas on Wednesday. A strong cold front will precede the arrival of this storm system and will sweep across north Texas on Tuesday, so cold air will be in place as this system moves overhead the following day.

Although we could get some sprinkles or patches of drizzle on Tuesday as the front moves through (better rain chances will be to the east and southeast of the Metroplex), the broad area of precipitation arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night which will bring all precipitation types (i.e., rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain), but not all parts of north Texas will see all these precipitation types.

The American model is still going for a multi-inch heavy snow event for ALL of the DFW area ... even forecasting a foot for western parts of Tarrant County!

The Stat Method rejects this heavy snow forecast in DFW but does call for at least some sleet, some freezing rain, some snow to move in for parts of the DFW area during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Since we are more than 24 hours out, actual amounts of each type are not reliably predictable at this point. We still have 3 days to wait for the storm to even get gere. But it will surely make today's upper 70s to low 80s seem like a distant memory as subfreezing temperatures settle in across the region by Wednesday and Thursday.

Stay tuned...especially in western parts of the area which appears to have the best chance of snowy conditions!

That is improvement! His stat method a few days ago (previous posts) showed little to none. It evolves as more models gets on board.

[Ntxw]

Stat method seems to show something worth mentioning but not GFS.

Through the years following his postings of this method, it seems heavier weight is given to the Euro and it's ensemble suite. Of course the ecmwf has more ensemble members as it is. I've seen it succeed and fall much in line with the prior model bunch.

[Texas Snow]

It’s just another datapoint / different tool as we all try to figure out what is going to happen. I am glad to see it showing something rather than nothing.

[gpsnowman]

Yes and still 3 days to make any adjustments needed. The Stat Method can always change when the storm gets closer to Texas. Rolling with the models until then will be a blast. Haven't done this in a while with a storm this strong.
Seems to me that his DFW outlook is dependant on how much cold air is around. But as some on here have mentioned the Euro is too warm and is slowly trending colder. A wild and anxious few days coming up!!!!

[vbhoutex]

This SE TX centric as opposed to DFW. It is from Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control.

A strong cold front will plunge across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Continued warmth today and even warmer on Monday and Tuesday as SE winds begin to bring humidity back into the region with highs likely in the mid 70’s and overnight lows warming into the 50’s for Monday morning and into the 60’s on Tuesday morning. A powerful upper level trough digging into the western US will move into TX mid week allowing a strong Canadian cold front to sweep southward and off the TX coast on Wednesday. Moisture levels will certainly increase ahead of this front from both the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific. Weak disturbances embedded within the increasing WSW/SW flow aloft will begin to impact the region by late Monday afternoon and when combined with increasing moisture, showers will be possible after noon on Monday.

Warm air advection pattern will continue on Tuesday with scattered showers moving northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. A strong surface cold front will be approaching the area by Tuesday evening and likely move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible with this boundary (could see a few strong to near severe storms) in the Lake Livingston area Tuesday evening.

A shallow and cold air mass will move into the area and off the coast Wednesday morning with temperatures quickly falling into the 40’s with strong cold air advection. Temperatures will hold in the 40’s the entire day on Wednesday with lingering clouds and rain in the postal frontal air mass. The upper trough lags behind the surface front by 12-24 hours and this will keep moisture moving over the top of the building surface cold dome Wednesday afternoon and night. A look at forecast soundings show most areas of SE TX remaining warm enough Wednesday night to preclude any significant threat of frozen or freezing precipitation. Will need to keep an eye on the College Station to Huntsville to Livingston areas just in case some of the advecting colder air overlaps a few hours with the departing moisture....for a few sleet pellets or snowflakes. Elsewhere it looks at this time like just a plain old cold rain ending Wednesday evening.

[orangeblood]

Starting to get into the NAM 3km (high res) strike zone...freezing line dropping in much quicker than other models

[Jarodm12]

Yes ive noticed the nam 3km is much faster with the advancing freezing line, i also went and looked at forecast 2m dewpoints throughout the event, and nearly all of north texas and southern Oklahoma are below freezing, up where I am (Durant Oklahoma) I'm sitting at 28.Now, we have to take into account wet bulb cooling as well, especially under these convective bands of precipitation,I'm starting to worry that this looks more like a major ice storm rather than snow storm for us, but as has been reiterated again and again it simply is too early to know for sure.

[gpsnowman]

Yes ive noticed the nam 3km is much faster with the advancing freezing line, i also went and looked at forecast 2m dewpoints throughout the event and nearly all of north texas and southern Oklahoma are below freezing up where i am sitting at 28, now we have to take in account wet bulb as well especially with these convective bands, im starting to worry that this looks more like a major ice storm than snow storm for us, but as has been reiterated again and again it simply is top early to know for sure.

Please no freezing rain. That is no good for anyone. Sleet when it falls is great to look at and crunchy to step on but quickly solidifies into solid sheets of ice. Snow all the way. Whatever falls you and Yukon Cornelius could be ground zero for this system. Texas Snowman also.

[Jarodm12]

Yes ive noticed the nam 3km is much faster with the advancing freezing line, i also went and looked at forecast 2m dewpoints throughout the event and nearly all of north texas and southern Oklahoma are below freezing up where i am sitting at 28, now we have to take in account wet bulb as well especially with these convective bands, im starting to worry that this looks more like a major ice storm than snow storm for us, but as has been reiterated again and again it simply is top early to know for sure.

Please no freezing rain. That is no good for anyone. Sleet when it falls is great to look at and crunchy to step on but quickly solidifies into solid sheets of ice. Snow all the way. Whatever falls you and Yukon Cornelius could be ground zero for this system. Texas Snowman also.

I agree, I just hope that the 00z sets come in cooler, if I'm not mistaken I believe will have new data added in we should start to have a better understanding of the cold air tonight, I'm getting really excited but I am having to contain it, anything could go wrong and throw a wrench into this whole thing, and then it would just be really disappointing but it looks like the main concern is where the freezing line has advanced to by the time that the precip shield moves over... we shall see